Top U.S. and Iranian officials signaled they are inching closer to an initial peace deal to wind down the U.S.-Iran conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though major details remain murky, especially around the future of Iran’s nuclear program.

President Trump said the peace deal has been “largely negotiated” and will be announced “shortly,” with the reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint among its key components.

🚨 “An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed…” – President Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/Z49bOkkUoh

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 23, 2026

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier that “significant progress” has been made, but no final deal has been reached.

Rubio added that the world could learn “over the next few hours” about progress on resolving the shipping disruption at the Hormuz chokepoint.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio cited ‘significant’ progress in the past 48 hours toward a deal with Iran that could help resolve the situation around the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/AgaPjulhKo pic.twitter.com/QwFObVmuhv

— Reuters (@Reuters) May 24, 2026

The proposed deal aims to reopen Hormuz, end or pause fighting across multiple fronts, and restart tanker flows through the strait, as the world is dangerously close to an energy cliff. If disrupted for another month, this could spark even more severe economic trouble for the global economy.

Iranian officials said the deal would also lift the U.S. naval blockade, halt fighting involving Israel and Hezbollah, reopen Hormuz without tolls, and release $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets.

The biggest unresolved issue is Iran’s nuclear program. U.S. officials said the framework includes a commitment by Tehran to give up enriched uranium, though the mechanism for that commitment would be negotiated later.

However, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency dismissed Trump’s claim of an imminent deal as “far from reality.”

Fars reported that, under the latest text exchanged, management of Hormuz would “remain exclusively under the authority and discretion of the Islamic Republic of Iran” if a deal is reached.

Earlier, Fars reported that Iran’s nuclear program, blocked funds, and the status of Hormuz remained “serious points of disagreement” in talks with the U.S.

Iran had indicated that a final draft of the deal was under review.

Iranian state television cited Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei as saying, “Over the past week, the process has been moving toward a convergence of views.”

Latest Headline Round-Up

Peace Deal Progress

Trump said Saturday that a peace deal with Iran has been ‘largely negotiated’ and he plans to announce an agreement shortly that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday there may be ‘some good news’ regarding the blocked Strait of Hormuz in the coming hours

Pakistan’s military cited ‘encouraging progress towards a final understanding’ after intensive negotiations over the last 24 hours

Iran and the US are still at odds over ‘one or two provisions’ of a potential peace agreement, according to Tasnim news agency

Peace Deal Terms

The agreement involves a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, and Iran would be able to freely sell oil, according to a U.S. official

A draft agreement stipulates that the US and its allies commit not to attack Iran or its allies under any circumstances, with Iran making a similar commitment, according to Fars news agency

Iran’s nuclear program, blocked funds and the status of the Strait of Hormuz are ‘serious points of disagreement’ in talks, according to Fars News

Regional Involvement

Several Arab nations joined Pakistan in trying to push for a resolution to the Iran war as they urged Trump to allow more time for negotiations

Pakistan’s Prime Minister congratulated Trump on his ‘extraordinary efforts to pursue peace’ after a phone call involving leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan and Pakistan

President Trump’s Iran deal will ensure the US military stays in the region for at least the next 30 days, per Fox News.

Macro Impact

US forces have redirected 100 commercial vessels during its six-week-long blockade of Iran’s ports, according to Central Command

A liquefied natural gas tanker carrying a shipment for India has exited the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the Iran war began months ago

The European Central Bank is heading for an interest-rate increase next month unless a sustainable peace deal between the US and Iran can be found, according to the ECB’s Martin Kocher

Polymarket

Odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by the end of June stand at 61%.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 62% · No 39%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

The US-Iran permanent peace deal, as of May 26, stands at 35%.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Yes 35% · No 65%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

WTI and Brent crude oil prices crashed on Hyperliquid (via Augur Infinity):

S&P500 soars on Hyperliquid (via Augur Infinity):

Bitcoin’s chart continues to trend higher, with price action on an “up and to the right” trajectory.

Must Reads:

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Why the US needed an urgent peace deal, as explained by UBS:

UBS Warns Of “Scary” Oil Price Scenarios Once Inventory Buffers Run Dry

Friday’s US-Iran Wrap

Iran Says ‘No Deal’ Will Materialize If US Insists On Enriched Uranium Handover

Saturday’s US-Iran Wrap

Israel Unleashes New Gaza Strikes Soon After Trump Says Iran Peace Deal ‘Largely Negotiated,’ Hormuz To Reopen As Final Terms Discussed

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