An analysis of Federal Aviation Administration data on airport runway “near miss” incidents shows a dramatic rise from 2017 to 2023 but a significant drop in 2024.
The study was conducted by Upgraded Points, a company that publishes research on financial and transportation data, using the FAA’s Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) system following increasing scrutiny on the aviation industry in recent years.
It found that 63% of runway incursions from 2021-24 were caused by pilot deviation, which refers to pilots failing to follow air traffic control instructions, misinterpreting taxiway signage or mistakenly entering an active runway. But when the focus is narrowed to only the most serious runway incursions, 57% are caused by operational incidents, which are air traffic control lapses.
Pilot deviation is only responsible for 30% of serious runway incursions, according to the study.
“This suggests that while pilot errors are more common in general, air traffic control lapses tend to lead to more dangerous situations when they do occur,” the study says.
In 2017, there were five total Category A incursions, meaning a serious incident in which a collision was narrowly avoided and three Category B incursions, referring to an incident with significant potential for collision that required immediate corrective action. These increased to seven Category A incursions and 14 Category B incursions by 2023, then dropped to two and five, respectively, in 2024.
The total incursions in all categories remained relatively flat, between 1,500 and 1,800, from 2017-24.
The data shows that from 2021-24, Newport News/Williamsburg International Airport had triple the number of incidents as Norfolk International Airport, and both are far from the worst offenders in their respective categories. The Newport News airport had nine lower-risk runway incursions — at a rate of 37 per 1 million flights over that time frame, while the Norfolk airport had three lower-risk runway incursions — 10 per million flights.
The study does not provide further context on the nature or cause of the incursions.
Both local airports had no higher-risk runway incursions.
Norfolk is ranked 354th in near misses for small airports, while Newport News is 202nd among non-hub airports.
Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport , where an approaching commercial flight collided with an Army helicopter Jan. 29, killing 67 people, is ranked ninth among large airports with 54 low-risk runway incursions and a rate of 50.4 per one million flights, according to the study.
Gavin Stone, 757-712-4806, gavin.stone@virginiamedia.com
