Almost three-fourths of respondents in a new survey of Central Florida businesses expressed confidence about their prospects for the rest of the year — but that sentiment tumbled from a year earlier.
Results from the business conditions survey for the third quarter that came out last week showed 72% had confidence in the outlook for their own businesses in the current quarter compared to 86% for the same period in 2024. The dip comes amid economic tumult worldwide, with resurgent inflation and gyrating tariffs that, some businesses said in the survey, are beginning to hit their bottom lines.
But Neil Hamilton, vice president of research and strategy at the Orlando Economic Partnership who oversees the survey, said even with the drop in confidence levels he views the results as promising.
“There’s a lot of noise right now but they can only go by what they see in their own business and one in four cite their recent performance as the primary driver of their optimism going forward,” Hamilton said. “That’s despite the national headwinds — the headwinds being political uncertainty and increasing inflation which we saw in this last quarter.
Neil Hamilton, vice president of research and strategy at the Orlando Economic Partnership, oversees the quarterly Orlando MSA Business Conditions Survey. (Courtesy of the OEP)
As with their own performance in the fourth quarter, respondents’ confidence in the economies of the four-county Orlando region — as well as the state and nation — soured compared to a year ago. For the Orlando region it slid to 67% from 83%; on the state economy it tumbled to 62% from 78%; and for the national economy it fell from 47% to 42%. The rest of respondents were unsure or not confident.
OEP is an economic and community development organization started in 2017 that serves Orange, Lake, Osceola and Seminole counties. The nonprofit has hundreds of investor companies supporting its mission — among them the Orlando Sentinel Media Group.
Asked about revenue performance in the last quarter, survey respondents were almost split between those reporting an increase (45%) and a decrease (22%) or no change (25%). A year earlier more reported an increase (61%) than those who saw a decrease (10%) or no change (24%). Totals don’t equal 100% because of respondents such as nonprofits.
Regarding employment levels in the last quarter compared to a year ago, fewer reported an increase (35% vs. 41%) and more reported a decrease (16% vs 8%), with the rest seeing no change (42% vs. 47%). Totals don’t equal 100% because some respondents might have only one employee.
Asked about the biggest challenges facing businesses in the fourth quarter, more cited cost pressures than in the previous quarter (55% to 45%). The survey found this consistent with inflation moving back toward 3% in the third quarter after falling earlier in the year.
On higher tariffs — a special topic of regional significance on this quarter’s survey that had not previously been measured — there was almost an even split between those reporting impacts in the past six months (43%) compared to those unaffected (42%). Businesses in sectors most exposed to global supply chains, such as manufacturing and construction, were most likely to report impacts.
The survey found that many businesses are responding to tariffs by absorbing increased costs themselves (20%). Just 21% said they’re passing costs onto customers through higher prices.
Hamilton said despite the challenges facing area businesses, the region is “blessed” with an expanding population and business base — market dynamics not found everywhere.
“I sometimes talk about the Florida factor or the Orlando factor,” he said. “We’re not immune from national headwinds but we’re certainly better than most.”
Hamilton said information collected by the survey, which was started in 2023, is vital to changing and improving the region’s economic conditions. Results are disseminated to many thousands of individuals, businesses and organizations.
One such organization is the Hispanic Chamber of Metro Orlando, which covers Central Florida with a primary focus on Orange, Osceola and Seminole counties. Its President and CEO Pedro Turushina said the latest survey results are in line with what he hears from members — the small businesses owned by Hispanics and Latinos.
“You can see it in the data, you can see it in the numbers,” Turushina said. “I see the shift, I see the adjustment but I also see how much we’re growing and how resilient we are.”
Survey responses were collected from 159 businesses in the four-county area by Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research throughout the third quarter. The identity of respondents is kept confidential.
