MIAMI GARDENS — The AFC playoff road is paved for the Miami Dolphins (5-7) to increase their winning streak to four consecutive games and remain in the “playoff hunt,” as the TV graphics say.
Of course, the the Dolphins must go on the road and defeat the New York Jets (3-9) on Sunday to stay “in the hunt,” and that won’t be easy. Yes, the the Dolphins are 5-2 against the Jets under coach Mike McDaniel, but only 1-2 at MetLife Stadium.
The Jets are No. 7 in the league in rushing (133.7 yards per game) and that could be a major problem for the Dolphins because their run defense is among the league’s worst.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is struggling.
Still, the Jets are terrible despite winning three of their past five games. So according to the sports books (Miami is favored by 2.5 points) the Dolphins should win.
Tua’s struggles
Tagovailoa, who has 17 touchdown passes, shares the league lead in interceptions (14) and his 85.9 passer rating is the lowest of his career. At times he appears mechanical, as though he’s thinking too much. During Miami’s three-game winning streak Tagovailoa is 41 of 64 for 501 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions and a 78.9 passer rating. His role has been minimized to the point his most single-game passing attempts during the winning streak is 23. Tagovailoa hasn’t led Miami to a three-game winning streak, he’s been along for the ride.
Winning late-season road game
The Dolphins are 7-10 in December-January games under coach Mike McDaniel, including 2-7 on the road in those games. It’s a shame the calendar has turned because the Dolphins are 11-3 in November games under coach McDaniel. But now we’ll see if Miami has progressed under McDaniel in this area or if they’re still mired in mediocrity. By the way, among the Dolphins’ final five opponents — New York (3-9), Pittsburgh (6-6), Cincinnati (4-8), Tampa Bay (7-5) and New England (11-2) — only two teams have a winning record. And their next opponent, the Jets, are arguably the worst of the bunch.
Achane/run game
Running back De’Von Achane (1,034 yards rushing, No 3 in NFL) has rushed for at least 120 yards in three consecutive games as McDaniel has leaned into the offensive line and run game. During the three-game winning streak Achane has 79 touches for 524 yards (65 carries for 428 yards and three touchdowns, 14 receptions for 96 yards). He’s run between the tackles and he’s run outside. And he hasn’t shown any signs of fatigue or injury. Achane, the likely team MVP, figures to remain the focal point of the offense. It’ll be interesting to see what the Jets, led by coach Aaron Glenn, does to limit Achane. Achane, for the record, rushed for 99 yards and one touchdown and added one reception for two yards in the Dolphins’ 27-21 win over the Jets earlier this season.
Offensive line
The starting offensive line of center Aaron Brewer, left guard Cole Strange, right guard Jonah Savaiinaea, right tackle Austin Jackson and left tackle Patrick Paul, along with guard/sixth offensive lineman Daniel Brunskill, is doing well. The Dolphins’ run blocking is reliable. But the pass blocking shows signs of vulnerability. Tagovailoa was sacked four times last Sunday against New Orleans and three times against Washington in the previous game. The Dolphins are tied for 16th in sacks allowed (27). Still, the offensive line has shown depth, resilience and effectiveness and that must continue Sunday.
Run defense
Yeah, we’re still watching this category because the Dolphins remain one of the league’s worst rushing defenses (137.5 yards allowed per game, 29th in NFL) despite linebacker Jordyn Brooks leading the league in tackles (137). So the Dolphins, who have only allowed four 100-yard rushers, must be wary of Jets running back Breece Hall (834 yards rushing, 4.5 yards per carry), who had 14 carries for 81 yards when these teams played in Week 4. In fact, they must be wary of the Jets’ entire rushing game, which accounted for 197 yards in a 27-21 Dolphins win in late September. Miami has allowed nine of its 12 opponents to rush for at least 100 yards and the Dolphins have gone 2-7 in those games. They must stop the run.
Dolphins Deep Dive: Prediction time — Can Miami continue winning streak vs. Jets? | VIDEO
