MIAMI GARDENS — All indications are that the Miami Dolphins (4-7) will get past the New Orleans Saints (2-9) on Sunday, whether with a one-point victory or a blowout, it doesn’t matter, and extend their winning streak to three games.
We’re aware that the Dolphins have won three of their past four games and New Orleans has lost five of its past six, and, knowing that the Dolphins are at home, everyone assumes the the Dolphins will win. After all, Saints running back Alvin Kamara (knee) is injured and they’re starting a rookie second-round pick, Tyler Shough, at quarterback.
Here’s the key: everyone but the the Dolphins can think that way.
In reality, the margins are narrow.
The Dolphins are 21st in the league points allowed at 24.5 points per game while New Orleans is 22nd at 24.9 ppg.
The Dolphins are 25th in turnover margin at minus-5 while the Saints are tied for 22nd at minus-4.
And the Dolphins lost to Cleveland rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel earlier this season, so nothing is sacred.
With that in mind, here are five things to watch for in Sunday’s 1 p.m. game:
Crowd/fan interest
Are fans excited that their Dolphins are on the outer ring of playoff contention for the first time this season? We’ll see. In the previous two home games — Buffalo and Baltimore — the road crowd made significant intrusions at Hard Rock Stadium. In the home game before those, the Los Angeles Chargers, boos were heard at times. Considering this is the Dolphins’ only appearance at Hard Rock Stadium for a four-game stretch (they were in Spain for their last game and they’re at the New York Jets and Pittsburgh for their next two games) you’d think fans would be excited. Again, we’ll see.
Killer instinct
The Dolphins showed killer instinct in their 34-10 win at Atlanta, and their 31-10 victory over Buffalo. It’s time for them to do it again. Ideally, the Dolphins will put the Saints away early. If things go well, and the Dolphins play with an edge, they won’t give the Saints any hope of victory. The Dolphins have flashed playmaking ability many times this season, such as in their 16-13 overtime win over Washington. They forced and recovered a fumble on a punt, and had a crucial interception in overtime. But they also failed to punch it in from the 1-yard line with 1:44 left in regulation. The Dolphins don’t have to be perfect to win. But it’d be nice to have the full-game focus against the Saints that they had against the Falcons and Bills.
Run defense
The Dolphins, who allowed Carolina running back Rico Dowdle to rush for 206 yards and Chargers running back Kimani Vidal to rush for 124 yards, must be respectful of Saints running backs Devin Neal (17 carries, 61 yards) and Audric Estime (no carries in one game) if Kamara is indeed out.
The Dolphins are 29th in the league in run defense at 142.6 yards allowed per game. The Saints’ ground game, which ranks 29th in the league at 91.5 yards per game, was already struggling, and without Kamara, their leading rusher, they seem likely to struggle even more.
Still, the Dolphins, who allowed Washington 172 yards in their previous game, must take this matchup seriously, meaning the defensive front, led by tackles Zach Sieler and Benito Jones, and the linebackers, led by Jordyn Brooks, must be sharp and ready to snuff out any threat.
Offensive line
The starting five of center Aaron Brewer, right guard Cole Strange, right tackle Larry Borom, left guard Jonah Savaiinaea and left tackle Patrick Paul has been doing good work recently. Oh, and let’s include sixth offensive lineman/tight end Daniel Brunskill in that group.
In pass protection, the Dolphins have only allowed 23 sacks this season, which is tied for 11th best in the league.
The Saints have pass-rushing threats among defensive ends Cameron Jordan (4.5 sacks), Carl Granderson (4.5 sacks) and Chase Young (4.0 sacks) so they must be watched. They can ruin the Dolphins’ day. But the Saints’ 24.0 sacks rank 20th in the league so they’re not a major threat on a regular basis.
In the run game, the testament to the offensive line is that running back De’Von Achane has rushed for 900 yards, which is fourth in the league. And New Orleans is a mediocre 21st in run defense (123.5 yards per game).
If the Dolphins’ offensive line has a good day, the offense should have a good day.
Tua
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (17 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 88.1 passer rating) isn’t having a good season. In fact, quarterbacks coach Darrell Bevell called it “up and down.” New Orleans represents a prime opportunity for Tagovailoa to be more consistent. In the past four games, the stretch in which the Dolphins have won three games, Tagovailoa has a so-so six touchdowns and three interceptions. But New Orleans only has six interceptions this season (cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry leads the way with two, both coming in a game against the New York Giants in October), so Tagovailoa should be able to let it fly.
Dolphins Deep Dive: Miami needs to win at home vs. Saints | VIDEO
