According to UN estimates released last year, Europe already hit its peak population in 2021 and has slowly started its population decline.

How did this happen, and can this trend reverse?

To answer that question, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao tracks the total fertility rate of every European country per UN estimates for 2025.

ℹ️ The fertility rate measures the average # of children a woman in a specific area will have over the course of her lifetime.

From this number, demographers and statisticians can make assumptions about population replacement and future trends.

Ranked: European Countries by Total Fertility Rates 2025

As it happens, 2.1 is a key threshold for fertility rates.

At this level, an area’s population remains stable. Above it, it’s likely to grow (barring war, disease, and famine). And below it, it’s likely to decline (barring immigration).

Rank
Country
ISO Code
Fertility Rate (2025)
1
🇲🇨 Monaco
MCO
2.1
2
🇲🇪 Montenegro
MNE
1.8
3
🇧🇬 Bulgaria
BGR
1.7
4
🇲🇩 Moldova
MDA
1.7
5
🇷🇴 Romania
ROU
1.7
6
🇫🇷 France
FRA
1.6
7
🇹🇷 Türkiye
TUR
1.6
8
🇮🇪 Ireland
IRL
1.6
9
🇸🇮 Slovenia
SVN
1.6
10
🇸🇰 Slovakia
SVK
1.6
11
🇱🇮 Liechtenstein
LIE
1.5
12
🇬🇧 UK
GBR
1.5
13
🇽🇰 Kosovo
XKX
1.5
14
🇩🇰 Denmark
DNK
1.5
15
🇵🇹 Portugal
PRT
1.5
16
🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
BIH
1.5
17
🇭🇺 Hungary
HUN
1.5
18
🇮🇸 Iceland
ISL
1.5
19
🇷🇸 Serbia
SRB
1.5
20
🇭🇷 Croatia
HRV
1.5
21
🇨🇿 Czechia
CZE
1.5
22
🇲🇰 North Macedonia
MKD
1.5
23
🇷🇺 Russia
RUS
1.5
24
🇩🇪 Germany
DEU
1.5
25
🇳🇱 Netherlands
NLD
1.4
26
🇸🇪 Sweden
SWE
1.4
27
🇨🇭 Switzerland
CHE
1.4
28
🇳🇴 Norway
NOR
1.4
29
🇱🇺 Luxembourg
LUX
1.4
30
🇧🇪 Belgium
BEL
1.4
31
🇪🇪 Estonia
EST
1.4
32
🇨🇾 Cyprus
CYP
1.4
33
🇱🇻 Latvia
LVA
1.4
34
🇬🇷 Greece
GRC
1.3
35
🇦🇱 Albania
ALB
1.3
36
🇦🇹 Austria
AUT
1.3
37
🇵🇱 Poland
POL
1.3
38
🇫🇮 Finland
FIN
1.3
39
🇧🇾 Belarus
BLR
1.2
40
🇪🇸 Spain
ESP
1.2
41
🇱🇹 Lithuania
LTU
1.2
42
🇮🇹 Italy
ITA
1.2
43
🇸🇲 San Marino
SMR
1.2
44
🇲🇹 Malta
MLT
1.1
45
🇦🇩 Andorra
AND
1.1
46
🇺🇦 Ukraine
UKR
1.0
N/A
🇪🇺 Europe
EUR
1.4

Looking at the data in the table above, almost all of Europe is below population replacement rate.

Monaco is the only exception, and is likely skewed upwards due to its small size (39,000 residents). Any small change in the number of babies born there can dramatically affect the fertility rate.

Zooming out, Northern and Western Europe have had below replacement fertility rates since the 1960s. Time and immigration helped delay immediate effects but four decades of falling fertility rates are finally having an impact.

Unless immigration patterns change significantly (and these new immigrants have more children), it’s unlikely this trend will reverse.

Want to see how these figures can affect each country’s population in the future? Check out: Europe’s Population Forecast to 2100 for a breakdown.