US Factory Orders Tumbled In November

After tumbling in October, US Factory Orders were expected to rebound (albeit modestly) in November’s (shutdown-delayed) data, but they didn’t…

US Factory Orders tumbled 0.6% MoM, notably worse than the 0.6% rebound expected after October’s 2.1% plunge… This is the first consecutive monthly contraction since June 2016…

Worse still ex-Transports, orders tumbled 1.3% MoM.

Year-over-year, factory order growth slowed dramatically to just 4.1% YoY…

The final updates for Durable Goods data was also disappointing with Core Capex slumping 0.6% MoM (after the same drop the previous month) and shipments dropped 0.2% (against expectations of unchanged). The headline Durable Goods Orders data also slowed dramatically from the preliminary print (rising just 0.7% against expectations of a 1.5% rebound).

Finally, we note that the relationship between US factory orders and the ‘hard’ broad macro data of the US economy has decoupled in recent years…

But more worryingly, ‘soft’ data has collapsed since the factory orders data was created…

Probably nothing…

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