China’s decision to stop buying soybeans from the United States in February in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s tariffs is set to hit the state’s farmers hard, according to the Virginia Cooperative Extension.

China was the top buyer of U.S. and Virginia soybeans, accounting for 54% of all U.S. soybean exports in 2023-2024, according to the American Soybean Association. The next largest buyer during that time frame was the European Union at 11%.

As of September 2024, China had purchased 40% of U.S. soybean exports but has not put in any orders so far this year, the first time this has happened since official online records were kept dating back to 1998, according to The Economist.

Since 2020, Virginia ports have exported an average of $1 billion in soybeans to China, according to Jason Grant, a professor of agriculture and director of the Center for Agricultural Trade at Virginia Tech. If the boycott continues, Grant said, Virginia and other American farmers will see “significant” price discounting on their soybeans.

Virginia farmers planted 610,000 acres of soybeans and produced 26,400,000 bushels in 2024, according to federal data. (Virginian-Pilot file)

“While this lower and more competitive U.S. soybean export price will be attractive to other soybean buyers in the EU, Egypt, Mexico, Thailand and elsewhere, there is simply no way that the rest of the world combined can fill the void left by China’s absence from the market,” Grant said in an email. “We are already seeing the effects of this with lower elevator price bids for new-crop soybeans that will be harvested this fall: a reduction in export demand by the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans depresses producer prices and squeezes farmers’ profit margins since inputs to grow and take care of this crop were already purchased many months ago.”

China placed a tariff of more than 20% on U.S. soybeans in retaliation for Trump’s levies on Chinese imports. China has now stockpiled cheaper soybeans from South America, meaning U.S. farmers could see losses of between $100 and $150 per acre, The Economist reported.

Virginia planted 610,000 acres of soybeans and produced 26,400,000 bushels in 2024, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. Hampton Roads is a significant part of that output, with Suffolk, Chesapeake, Isle of Wight and Virginia Beach planting a total of 56,900 acres and producing 2,413,000 bushels.

Grant said that if the September 2025 to January 2026 export window closes without China making new soybean orders, U.S. and Virginia soybean producers could be left with 20% of their soybean unsold.

“In the short run, producers will have to store a portion of the soybean harvest which reduces cash flow,” Grant said. “Moreover, many local Virginia soybean producers do not have significant storage capacity, and maintaining the quality of stored soybeans is costly for producers.”

Gavin Stone, 757-712-4806, gavin.stone@virginiamedia.com

https://www.dailypress.com/2025/09/29/virginia-farmers-soybean-tariffs/