PHILADELPHIA — The Phillies’ postseason pitching plans are clear from the start and at the finish. In between lies a quandary.
Or, as Walker Buehler and Taijuan Walker would’ve been wise to approach it Thursday, an opportunity.
The identity of the pitchers toward the fringes of the Phillies’ playoff roster is hardly set. And both Buehler and Walker made convincing cases in a 1-0 win over the Miami Marlins to be in the mix.
Buehler, in his second start as a Phillie, went five innings, navigating constantly into trouble but then out of it without surrendering a run. It takes his tally to one earned run in 13.2 innings over three outings.
Walker piggy-backed, tossing two scoreless innings. He likewise courted trouble with a hit and two walks but found his way out of it.
Both showed some of the attributes manager Rob Thomson said he was looking for.
Buehler has a proven track record of both postseason pitching and recovering from putrid regular seasons to contribute in October. He did both last year, recording the final out for the Dodgers’ in the World Series. He allowed six earned runs and 12 hits in 15 innings over four appearances.
Thomson was looking for improved fastball command from Buehler, who had leaned on the four-seamer heavily in his first two outings. But he threw less of them Thursday, working with catcher J.T. Realmuto to select from his six-pitch mix.
“I just think the delivery has a lot more margin for error,” Buehler said. “And both catchers have done a great job with me in terms of how I see it, and how I see myself being successful, and putting me in sequences and giving me a chance to be successful. And I think marrying those two things together, I think has been really good for me.”
It was a changeup, for instance, that Buehler went to against Liam Hicks with the bases loaded and two out in the fourth. The lefty fouled off a change off the plate for strike two, then popped up a changeup to second base to end the inning. Buehler has thrown the pitch only 6.6 percent of the time this year.
Buehler was terrible with the Red Sox, designated for assignment in August after a 5.45 ERA in 112.1 innings. He started once in Lehigh Valley, then allowed one earned run in five innings of his debut against Kansas City on Sept. 12.
He appeared in relief, an important box to check for the postseason, in Arizona, tossing 3.2 innings of two-hit ball.
On Thursday, Buehler threw 74 pitches, then headed to the bullpen for two simulated innings to keep his arm lengthened out. He’s been using a lot of pitches — 90 in five innings against the Royals, 78 for his three innings with the IronPigs — but he’s getting results. The bullpen stint got him two extra ups, simulating seven innings.
“I think every pitch in the playoffs is a little bit more,” he said. “I think if you throw 100 in the regular season, you’re ready to throw 75 or 80 in the playoffs. And so I’ve always tried to kind of either find some athleticism in my throwing when I’ve been good throughout September or build up to the point that fatigue-wise, I feel like I can go and throw 85 pitches as much as I can. … I just think everything in the playoffs is a little intensified, and obviously with the DFA and that situation, I’ve got to build up higher than I have been able to.”
Walker has had a similar, if longer-term reversal. He was awful last year for the Phillies with a 7.10 ERA in 83 innings. He’s bounced back this year — he calls it a “night-and-day difference” — to post a 4.11 ERA in 122 innings, filling in capably when injuries have befallen the rotation, while also making 12 relief appearances.
The hope with Walker, exclusively used as a starter his first 11 year in the majors, was for a tick-up in his stuff with shorter workloads out of the ‘pen. Thursday, a fastball that has averaged 92.1 mph this year touched 94.3 and sat 93.8. His splitter was also harder and looks more deceptive when the fastball is both harder and commanded better.
“I think especially with the splitter, when the splitter’s looking like a fastball for a long time, and if I’m dotting that four-seam down and away, they have to respect the fastball,” Walker said. “That’s when I get swing and miss on the splitters down.”
One bugbear of late is first-inning stumbles. Walker has an 8.57 ERA in the first inning of appearances this season. He’s allowed opponents to hit .376 off of him, with a 1.093 OPS. He’d given up 12 runs in the first innings of his last four appearances.
That would seem to be a problem in short postseason stints.
Thursday was better, if only just. He allowed a walk and a single to the first two batters he faced before getting a fly out to center and two strikeouts.
“I think it’s a little bit intensity, but not doing too much,” Walker said. “When you do too much, you can leave yourself over the plate. I think it’s just pitching my game and hitting the corners, and if I’m feeling good, not trying to overthrow.”
Walker had a great 2023 — 4.38 ERA over a career-best 172.2 innings — and made the postseason roster but didn’t appear in a game, then didn’t make the roster in last year’s NLDS.
The Phillies need only three starters in the NLDS, which begins Oct. 4. Cristopher Sanchez will get the ball in Game 1.
The two pitchers in the best form to follow would be Jesus Luzardo and Ranger Suarez. Thomson said Thursday that he’d have no qualms about stacking three lefties, depending on opponent.
Aaron Nola has never pitched out of the bullpen, but his 6.46 ERA would make him a gamble.
The postseason eligibility of Jose Alvarado and recent struggles by Max Lazar and Orion Kerkering make the bullpen shorter on reliable arms, especially righties. It may be enough to see Buehler or Walker find a spot in the middle of a postseason game to get a few valuable outs.
Thomson demured on if he’s looking at Buehler as a starter for the postseason. Buehler said he’s open for anything.
“I’m here to win a world title, and whatever kind of piece I can be in that from a starting pitcher to a cheerleader, I really don’t care,” he said. “I haven’t been here very long, but I’ve really enjoyed this team. And next time we celebrate, I want to feel like I was a part of it.”
