Solwd

Aerospace and defense company Sierra Nevada Corporation won the $13 billion Pentagon contract to develop a successor to the “Doomsday Plane” that serves as a mobile command post in the event of nuclear war. 

The current 1970s-era Boeing E-4B “Nightwatch” serves as the National Airborne Operations Center and is a key component of the National Military Command System for the President, the Secretary of Defense, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 

However, the fleet of E-4B Nightwatch, which can withstand nuclear blasts and electromagnetic effects, is aging and needs to be replaced. 

That’s where Sierra Nevada comes in with the new Survivable Airborne Operations Center project, which will replace the E-4B Nightwatch by 2036. 

“In case of national emergency or destruction of ground command and control centers, the aircraft provides a highly survivable command, control, and communications center to direct US forces, execute emergency war orders, and coordinate actions by civil authorities,” explained an E-4B Nightwatch fact sheet produced by the US Air Force. 

In December, Reuters sources said Boeing – the incumbent manufacturer of the E-4B Nightwatch, could not agree with the Air Force on data rights and contract terms for the replacement plane. 

Currently, the Air Force operates four E-4B Nightwatch planes, with at least one on full alert at all times. 

Given Boeing’s string of problems at its commercial jet unit, it’s probably best that Sierra Nevada was awarded the project for one of the nation’s most important aircraft. 

Authored by Toby Rogers via The Brownstone Institute,

I’ve seen some crazy things over the last few years but this is off-the-charts insane.

Last week, Michael E. Mann spoke at the EcoHeath Alliance: Green Planet One Health Benefit 2024. Just to recap who each of these players are: 

Michael E. Mann is the creator of the “hockey stick graph” that has driven the global warming debate for the last 25 years. 

EcoHealth Alliance is the CIA cutout led by Peter Daszak that launders money from the NIH to the Wuhan Institute of Virology to create gain-of-function viruses (including SARS-CoV-2 which killed over 7 million people). 

“One Health” is the pretext the World Health Organization (WHO) is using to drive the Pandemic Treaty that will vastly expand the powers of the WHO and create economic incentives for every nation on earth to develop new gain-of-function viruses.

So a leader in the global warming movement spoke at an event to raise money for the organization that just murdered 7 million people and the campaign that intends to launch new pandemics in perpetuity to enrich the biowarfare industrial complex. 

And then just for good measure, Peter Hotez reposted all of this information on Twitter, I imagine in solidarity with all of the exciting genociding going on. 

Mann’s appearance at this event is emblematic of a disturbing shift that has been years in the making. Serious and thoughtful people in the environmental movement tried to address industrial and military pollution for decades. Now their cause has been co-opted by Big Tech and other corporate actors with malevolent intentions — and the rest of the environmental movement has gone along with this, apparently without objection. So we are witnessing a convergence between the global warming movement, the biowarfare industrial complex, and the WHO pandemic treaty grifters. 

I wish it wasn’t true but here we are. 

Before I go any further I need to make one thing clear: the notion that pandemics are driven by global warming is complete and total bullsh*t. The evidence is overwhelming that pandemics are created by the biowarfare industrial complex including the 13,000 psychopaths who work at over 400 US bioweapons labs (as described in great detail in The Wuhan Cover-Up). 

Unfortunately “global warming” has become a cover for the proliferation of the biowarfare industrial economy. 

Mann’s appearance at an event to raise money for people who are clearly guilty of genocide (and planning more carnage) made me realize that this really is World War III. They are straight-up telling us who they are and what they intend to do. 

The different sides in this war are not nation-states.

Instead, Team Tyranny is a bunch of different business interests pushing what has become a giant multi-trillion dollar grift.

And Team Freedom is ordinary people throughout the world just trying to return to the classical economic and political liberalism that drove human progress from 1776 until 2020. 

Here’s how I see the battle lines being drawn: 

TEAM TYRANNY 

Their base: Elites, billionaires, the ruling class, the biowarfare industrial complex, intelligence agencies, and bougie technocrats.

Institutions they control: WEF, WHO, UN, BMGF, World Bank, IMF, most universities, the mainstream media, and liberal governments throughout the developed world.

Economic philosophy: The billionaires should control all wealth on earth. The peasants should only be allowed to exist to serve the billionaires, grow food, and fix the machines when necessary. Robots and Artificial Intelligence will soon be able to replace most of the peasants. 

Political philosophy: Centralized control of everything. Elites know best. The 90% should shut up, pay their taxes, take their vaccines, develop chronic disease, and die. High tech global totalitarianism is the best form of government. Billionaires are God.

Philosophy of medicine: Allopathic. Cut, poison, burn, kill. Corporations create all knowledge. Bodies are machines. Transhumanism is ideal. The billionaires will soon live forever in the digital cloud. 

Their currency: For now, inflationary Federal Reserve policies. Soon, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) that will put the peasants in their place once and for all. 

Policy vehicles to advance their agenda: One Health; WHO Pandemic Treaty; social credit scores; climate scores; vaccine mandates/passports; lockdowns and quarantine camps; elimination of small farms and livestock; corporate control of all food, land, water, transportation, and the weather; corporate control of social movements; and 15-minute cities for the peasants. 

Military strategy: Gain-of-function viruses, propaganda, and vaccines.

TEAM FREEDOM

Our base: The medical freedom movement, Constitutionalists, small “l” libertarians, independent farmers, natural meat and milk producers, pirate parties, natural healers, homeopaths, chiropractors, integrative and functional medicine doctors, and osteopaths.

Aligned institutions: CHD, ICAN, Brownstone Institute, NVIC, SFHF, the RFK, Jr. campaign, the Republican party at the county level…

Economic philosophy: Small “c” capitalism. Competition. Entrepreneurship. 

Political philosophy: Classical liberalism. The people, using their own ingenuity, will generally figure out the best way to do things. Decentralize everything including the internet. If the elites would just leave us alone the world would be a much more peaceful, creative, and prosperous place. Human freedom leads to human flourishing. 

Philosophy of medicine: Nature is infinite in its wisdom. Listen to the body. Systems have the ability to heal and regenerate. 

Our currency: Cash, gold, crypto, and barter. (I don’t love crypto but lots of smart people in our movement do.) 

Policy ideas: Exit the WHO. Boycott WEF companies. Repeal the Bayh-Dole Act, NCVIA Act, Patriot Act, and PREP Act. Add medical freedom to the Constitution. Prosecute the Faucistas at Nuremberg 2.0. Overhaul the NIH, FDA, CDC, EPA, USDA, FCC, DoD, and intelligence agencies. Make all publicly-funded scientific data available to the public. Ban insider trading by Congress. Support and protect organic food, farms, and farmers’ markets. Break up monopolies. Cut the size of the federal government in half (or more). 

Our preferred tools to create change: Ideas, love for humanity, logic and reason, common sense, art and music, and popular uprising. 

What would you add, subtract, or change in each of these lists? 

*  *  *

Republished from the author’s Substack

Richard Tornetta, who was at the center of Tesla shareholders’ claim that Elon Musk was taking an excessive pay package, is now at the center of claims that Tesla should not be reincorporating to Texas to approve Musk’s voided pay plan. 

But Tesla is firing back at Tornetta. John Reed, one of Tesla’s attorneys, said in a Delaware Chancery Court filing this week that Tornetta “is raising false alarms”, according to Bloomberg. 

Musk has considered relocating Tesla’s headquarters from Delaware to Texas after a judge revoked his substantial pay package due to conflicts among directors and inadequate disclosure of plan details.

In response, Tornetta is urging the judge to prevent Musk from addressing the pay dispute outside of Delaware. Despite this, no legal actions are currently threatened or pending in Texas, and Musk has not obstructed the issuance of a final judgment in the case, according to Reed’s letter to the judge.

McCormick’s decision on retaining the dispute in Delaware remains uncertain and could affect the case’s outcome. If Tesla relocates to Texas and adjusts Musk’s compensation there, it might trigger a new legal battle under Texas law.

A hearing is scheduled for July 8 to address Tornetta’s lawyers’ request for attorney fees and finalize the case. They aim to secure a ruling on their injunction plea before Tesla’s June 13 annual meeting, where a critical proxy vote will occur, Bloomberg writes. 

Reed, in a letter, suggests that Tornetta’s legal moves could sway Tesla shareholders’ decisions on relocating to Texas and reinstating Musk’s record-breaking compensation package. He advises McCormick against publicly addressing Tornetta’s injunction request to prevent influencing shareholder votes unfairly.

Tornetta’s legal team fears that a Texas move could enable Musk and Tesla’s directors to obstruct the judge’s decision on Musk’s pay. They also seek an escrow account creation for 29 million Tesla shares, valued at around $5 billion, as payment. 

Recall, Tornetta’s lawyers asked for $6 billion worth of legal fees for their services. “The lawyers who did nothing but damage Tesla want $6 billion. Criminal,” Elon Musk fired back last month. 

The reasoning for the excessive fee rests on the fact that the victory to void Musk’s pay plan results in 266 million shares being returned to the company. 

On January 31, we wrote that the compensation case, which was launched by Tornetta, argued that Tesla’s board lacked independence in crafting Musk’s pay, a view the judge supported.

Delaware Chancery Court Chief Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick cited inadequate disclosures and board conflicts of interest in her ruling. Musk, whose wealth largely comes from Tesla, the top auto company globally, has seen stock options from this plan vest as performance goals were met, though he hasn’t exercised them yet.

The judge wrote earlier this year: “In the final analysis, Musk launched a self-driving process, recalibrating the speed and direction along the way as he saw fit. The process arrived at an unfair price. And through this litigation, the plaintiff requests a recall.”

“The most striking omission from the process is the absence of any evidence of adversarial negotiations between the Board and Musk concerning the size of the grant,” she said in her ruling.

Authored by Jana J Pruet via The Epoch Times,

Nearly half of the pro-Palestinian protesters arrested earlier this week at The University of Texas at Austin were not affiliated with the university.

Law enforcement officials arrested 57 protesters during Wednesday’s event organized by the Palestine Solidarity Committee after participants refused to disperse despite demands from authorities and the university. Of those arrested, 26 were neither students nor faculty of the university, according to officials at UT-Austin.

Hundreds of students walked out of class Wednesday in support of Palestinians in Gaza in the midst of the Israel-Hamas war. The war broke out after Palestinian terror group Hamas launched a brutal attack on Israel on Oct. 7, which left 1,200 Israelis dead. Hamas is believed to still be holding 129 hostages from Israel.

The organizers wrote on Instagram that they aimed to follow “in the footsteps of our comrades at Columbia SJP, Rutgers-New Brunswick, Yale, and countless others,” with SJP referring to Students for Justice in Palestine.

The anti-Israel student group demanded that the university “divest from death.”

“Consistent with this broader movement that is impacting so many, problematic aspects of the planned protest were modeled after a national organization’s protest playbook,” UT–Austin President Jay Hartzell said in a campuswide message Thursday evening.

“And notably, 26 of the 55 individuals arrested yesterday had no UT affiliation.”

Local news outlet KTBC-TV reported that one of its photojournalists was among those arrested during the clash between police and protesters. He was booked into the Travis County jail on a criminal trespassing charge.

By Thursday evening, all of those arrested had been released. The Travis County prosecutor said it had dropped all criminal trespassing charges, citing “deficiencies” in charging documents. Criminal trespassing is considered a misdemeanor in the state of Texas.

According to the Texas Tribune, the Texas Department of Public Safety has opened a criminal investigation into the arrest of the photojournalist.

The UT–Austin chapter of the American Association of University of Professors denounced Mr. Hartzell for allowing authorities to be deployed on campus during the class walkout.

“We, faculty of UT Austin, condemn President Jay Hartzell and our administrative leaders’ decision to invite city police as well as state troopers from across the state—on horses, motorcycles, and bicycles, in riot gear and armed with batons, pepper spray, tear gas and guns to our campus today in response to a planned peaceful event by our students,” read the statement posted on X on Wednesday night.

Policy Violation

Ahead of Wednesday’s demonstration, university officials warned the organizers that the event violated school policy and would not be allowed to take place in an effort to prevent the “pattern” that has occurred across the nation in recent weeks, leading to hundreds of arrests.

“The University’s decision to not allow yesterday’s event to go as planned was made because we had credible indications that the event’s organizers, whether national or local, were trying to follow the pattern we see elsewhere, using the apparatus of free speech and expression to severely disrupt a campus for a long period,” Mr. Hartzell continued.

Palestine Solidarity Committee (PSC) is a student organization with chapters at colleges and universities across the country.

The group’s website states that it is “dedicated to telling the story of the Palestinian struggle for justice and self-determination on the university campus and in the wider Austin community. We work to promote education, discourse, activism, and awareness of the Palestinian story through lectures by academics and political activists, movie screenings, and events and displays on the UT West Mall.”

The UT–Austin group, which holds biweekly meetings on campus, states under Article 1 of its bylaws that it will comply with school policies.

“This organization is a recognized student organization at The University of Texas at Austin and shall comply with all campus policies as set forth in the ​Institutional Rules on Student Services and Activities and Information on Students’ Rights and Responsibilities,” it says.

UT Suspends Organization

The university suspended the student group from campus after another walkout on Thursday, which was organized in part by the faculty group that condemned the university for enforcing its rules.

Police were present during Thursday’s peaceful event.

“Students and faculty affirmed their commitment to continue struggling for the liberation of Palestine, to demand their university divest, and demand the resignation of President Jay Hartzell for greenlighting the militarized brutality enforced on students,” PSC wrote on Instagram.

PSC has held more than a dozen pro-Palestinian events since October.

“I’m thankful we live in a country where free expression is a fiercely protected Constitutional right,” Mr. Hartzell said in his campuswide message on Thursday.

“I’m grateful that our campus has seen 13 pro-Palestinian events take place during the past several months largely without incident—plus another one today. I am grateful that everyone is safe after yesterday, we continue to hold in-person classes, and that today’s events followed our long-standing campus standards for allowed demonstrations.”

Brian Davis, a spokesperson for the university, confirmed on Friday that the student group had been suspended from campus in the wake of this week’s events. The length of the suspension is not immediately clear. Mr. Davis said that the Dean of Students office would make that determination.

It is unknown whether any students have been reprimanded for the events that occurred earlier this week. That information is protected by federal privacy laws.

“I encourage us all to continue to communicate and work together, and to help our students finish this school year in positive, safe and celebratory ways,” Mr. Hartzell said.

Ukrainian military planners have been ramping up Kamikaze drone strikes against the Russian energy industrial complex this week, including an overnight attack damaging an oil refinery as Western sanctions fail to crush Putin’s oil-rich economy that funds the “special military operation” in Ukraine. This comes despite the US publicly telling the Ukrainians to stop attacking Russian refineries for fear Brent crude prices could spike and worsen the inflation storm in the US ahead of the presidential elections in the fall. 

Bloomberg reports an oil refinery in the Sloviansk-on-Kuban region was hit by a swarm of Ukranian suicide drones on Saturday morning. 

State-run news agency Tass said the refinery strike caused damage and a fire, partially suspending operations at the crude processing facility.  

“The work of the (Slavyansk) plant has been partially suspended. Exactly 10 UAVs (drones) flew directly into the plant, there was a strong fire. There may be hidden damage,” Eduard Trudnev, the security director at Slavyansk ECO Group, which operates the plant, was cited as saying by TASS.

On Telegram, Roman Siniagovskyi, a local government official in Slavyansk, said drones struck a distillation tower and storage tank. 

Ukraine continues to successfully attack Russian oil refineries. It is confirmed that Ukrainian drones hit Sloviansk Eko oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai. The distillation column has been damaged. pic.twitter.com/fFEqbqTfrz

— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) April 27, 2024

Russia’s defense ministry said 66 drones were intercepted over the Krasnodar region, located in the southern part of the country. 

Earlier this week, Ukraine began ramping up drone attacks on Russian refineries after the Biden administration signed a new military aid package worth billions of dollars. 

Ukraine’s strategy in the war has shifted to attacking Moscow’s oil revenues by precision-guided strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure. So far, drone strikes have knocked out about 10% of Russia’s oil refinery capacity. This comes as Western sanctions fail to crush Putin’s oil-rich economy funding war efforts. 

Aslak Berg, Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform, recently told Euronews:

“Since Russian import capacity for refined oil products is limited in the short run, since they’re set up to export, it’s actually a fairly clever way of causing disruption in the Russian market with limited impact globally.” 

Berg continued, 

“The Ukrainians have been hitting refineries, not Russian crude oil production or export facilities. This causes problems for Russia’s domestic market for refined products, but for the rest of the world, a decline in Russia’s exports of products will be compensated for by increased exports of crude oil.” 

Meanwhile, Biden’s top officials have pleaded with Kyiv to stop attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure because of the fears that turmoil in crude markets would send pump prices in the US higher ahead of the presidential elections in November.

UBS Global Wealth Management Giovanni Staunovo said that if the Ukrainian drone attacks are limited to Russian oil refineries, then this won’t cause great disruptions in the global market. 

However, it could only be a matter of time before Ukranians start attacking Russia’s energy-exporting capabilities. If that’s the case, expect an even higher war risk premium to be baked into Brent crude prices. 

The Biden administration has a colossal mess on their hands as stagflation emerges. And don’t forget about the mess in the Middle East. 

Via SchiffGold.com,

The wizards at the Fed and US Treasury have been forced to acknowledge that their “transitory,” inflation is, in fact, quite “sticky.” And with the inflation elephant now acknowledged by the circus of high finance, Treasury yields keep inching up, recently reaching 4.7% — the highest since November. The Fed is stuck: It needs to raise interest rates to tame inflation and make Treasuries more attractive. But the Fed can’t afford higher rates, with an already-untenable cost to service the existing debt and loan-dependent industries teetering on the brink.

Once the 10-year Treasury yield goes above 5%, the bond market enters especially dangerous territory, endangering industries like the automotive market and commercial real estate that depend heavily on debt.

With no good options, the Fed will be forced to print money one way or another to stimulate borrowing, turning an inflationary creek of their own making into a raging river of dollar destruction.

The only way the Fed can possibly tame inflation is with interest rates so high that everything collapses. Jamie Dimon himself sees 8% interest rates being needed to tame America’s Fed-fueled inflation beast — but with an economy addicted to a low cost of borrowing, this would make loans unaffordable for entire sectors of the economy that can’t do without.

A serious implosion in commercial real estate would certainly bleed into the banking sector, beginning a chain reaction. Meanwhile, with no chance of the US reigning in spending and getting its fiscal house in order, interest on the US debt can already only be paid with even more borrowed money.

That doesn’t even take into account the over-indebted masses with their breaking-down cars, mortgages on homes that need repairs, and credit cards they use to fund basic expenses. Neither the most loan-dependent industries nor the average American can handle the rising cost of goods, materials, and energy. But they can’t handle 8% interest rates either. This is giving the Fed a mission impossible — raising rates to the levels they need to actually tame inflation or allowing inflation to run amok with fresh money printing to keep borrowing artificially affordable will both result in disastrous outcomes for the economy.

The COVID M1 Hockey Stick (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

The truth is, out-of-control spending and lingering COVID stimulus mean that inflation isn’t going away just because of some small rate hikes, as Peter Schiff has repeatedly pointed out, and as Dimon wrote in his recent shareholder letter:

“Huge fiscal spending, the trillions needed each year for the green economy, the remilitarization of the world, and the restructuring of global trade—all are inflationary.”

So while 2024’s rate cuts may get delayed, the Fed knows it might be able to kick the bond market bomb down the road by printing money. And the central bank will do whatever it has to in order to prevent a short-term implosion — even if it means destroying the dollar in the longer term. This is especially true now, as the Fed doesn’t want to anger the incumbent during an election year, giving it further impetus to make the economy look as rosy as possible, at least until the start of the next presidential cycle. That means rate cuts or full-blown QE to prevent a bond market collapse, and worrying about hyperinflation later.

Without gold to preserve your purchasing power, you might be about to see what happens to your money when the Fed is forced to fire up the money printers while inflationary pressures are already itching to explode in a way not seen in years. And if the Fed holds strong and refuses to cut rates this year, or even raises them anywhere near the levels they need to avoid killing the dollar, hold onto your hats — and your gold — and try not to get caught under one of the falling dominos.

It looks as though the flight to Florida, specifically Miami, by Wall Street firms and New Yorkers during the height of Covid is starting to pay dividends for the state.

And if commercial real estate is dead, someone forgot to tell Swire Properties Inc., who is reportedly seeking $100 million to develop a penthouse atop a 66-story tower on Brickell Key island in Florida. 

The building is already home to the The Residences at Mandarin Oriental, but the penthouse – capable of being split into two units, according to Bloomberg – is being marketed as its “crown jewel”. 

Swire President Henry Bott told Bloomberg: “The center of gravity in Miami has shifted to Brickell. We’re already seeing a strong response from domestic US buyers.”

Swire’s ability to attract buyers to an area primarily frequented by joggers and dog walkers will determine the success of the sale, the report says. As of now, the highest-priced property ever sold on Brickell Key was a $7.8 million condominium in 2021.

Bloomberg writes that Swire is investing over $1 billion in constructing two upscale towers, branded with Mandarin Oriental, on the island’s final available plot. One tower features a lavish 23,000-square-foot duplex, complete with its own infinity pool and private elevator lobby. Units at this project start at around $4.9 million, with occupancy expected by 2029.

The second tower will host a Mandarin Oriental hotel, set to become the brand’s flagship in North America, replacing the existing hotel built in 2000. Swire has been developing much of the island since acquiring nearly 34 acres in the late 1970s.

Brickell, Miami’s financial district, has seen a surge in activity, attracting Wall Street firms like Citadel and JPMorgan Chase, along with affluent professionals from New York and Chicago. Developers in Miami are targeting these wealthy newcomers with luxury condos, rivaling prices in Manhattan or California.

For instance, Ritz-Carlton condos in South Beach include a penthouse listed at $125 million, while the Shore Club Private Collection nearby has a penthouse with a private rooftop pool under contract for over $120 million. Fisher Island, another elite neighborhood, has seen penthouses sold for a total exceeding $150 million.

Competing directly with Swire’s Brickell project is a hotel-branded condo in Coconut Grove, the Four Seasons residential tower, attracting affluent buyers, especially from the finance sector. Developer Nadim Ashi reports strong interest, with over 30% of units already under contract and closings expected by late 2026. He estimates the combined penthouses could fetch up to $120 million.

Ugo Colombo, chief executive officer of CMC Group, concluded: “Miami used to be a dark hole at night. The city’s evolved so much and Covid gave it its last push to become a luxury hub.”

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

In 2007, the U.S. national debt was below $10 trillion, and the budget deficit was about $160 billion. Federal spending was about $3 trillion, and interest payments were approximately $400 billion.

Then the numbers spiraled out of control.

Washington’s fiscal situation has drastically changed since then; total debt has surpassed $34 trillion, the annual budget shortfall exceeds $1 trillion, and interest costs have topped $1 trillion.

David Walker, the former comptroller general of the United States and a Main Street Economics advisory board member, is unsurprised.

Seventeen years ago, Mr. Walker rang fiscal alarm bells. Like Ross Perot before him, he took his case to the American people and delivered the cold, hard truth: The government’s books are unsustainable, and interest charges on the mounting debt will swallow a significant portion of federal revenues.

During this time, the former head of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) appeared on a widely viewed episode of “60 Minutes,” toured the country to spotlight worrisome trends in the U.S. government’s budget (he did this again in 2012), and attempted to convince lawmakers of the unsustainable fiscal path.

He also penned a 2009 book titled “Comeback America: Turning the Country Around and Restoring Fiscal Responsibility.”

Given the treasure trove of budgetary numbers coming out of the nation’s capital almost daily, such as nearly half of income tax revenues being dedicated to interest payments, Mr. Walker’s warnings have not been heeded nearly two decades later.

According to the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term outlooks, the national debt will eye $50 trillion by 2034, fueled by around $17 trillion in cumulative deficits. As a percentage of GDP, debt held by the public and the deficit will reach 166 percent and 8.5 percent by 2054, respectively, the CBO forecasts.

“Washington has become addicted to spending, deficits, and debt, and they’re charging the credit card and planning to send the bill to younger and future generations of Americans,” Mr. Walker told The Epoch Times.

“That’s irresponsible. It’s unethical, and it’s immoral, and it needs to stop.”

Is the United States past the point of no return?

“Only God knows when the tipping point is going to occur, and God’s not telling us,” he said.

He combs through various metrics to gauge the situation.

One of these is the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is presently at about 122 percent. Outside of the coronavirus pandemic, this is a record high.

Mandatory spending as a percentage of the federal budget is another metric. It currently stands at around 73 percent.

Another one is interest as a percentage of the budget, which is close to 15 percent.

For Mr. Walker, it is not only raw numbers but what the trends are displaying, which requires a deep dive into demographics.

“We have an aging society with longer lifespans, relatively fewer workers, supporting more retirees, and a skills gap,” he noted.

Last year, two notable developments happened: a majority of Baby Boomers were at least 65, and the birth rate tumbled to the lowest in a century.

This will metastasize into a costly burden for the federal government, particularly Social Security.

The Peter G. Peterson Foundation estimates that the current worker-to-beneficiary ratio is 2.8-to-1, down from 5.1-to-1 in 1960. By 2035, the Social Security Administration projects the ratio will further slide to 2.3-to-1.

Republicans and Democrats

President Joe Biden has claimed that he has acted fiscally responsibly, telling a crowd at a North America’s Building Trades Unions event on April 24 that he cut the national debt. President Biden has repeatedly touted this claim over the last 18 months, although he has added close to $7 trillion to the national debt since taking office in 2021.

While Republicans have griped over the current administration’s spending endeavors, experts assert that the GOP has also contributed trillions of dollars to the debt pile. One of the GOP-led expansionist initiatives was Medicare Part D under former President George W. Bush.

This program, which was designed to utilize private health care plans to offer drug coverage to Medicare beneficiaries, added $8 trillion in new unfunded obligations. Mr. Walker accepted that “the politicians were totally out of touch with fiscal reality,” considering that Medicare was already underfunded by $19 trillion.

Former U.S. President George W. Bush speaks at Seminole Golf Club in Juno Beach, Fla., on May 7, 2021. (Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

Put simply, both parties have been fiscally irresponsible, and now the bills are coming due.

Mr. Walker purported that politicians suffer from myopia as they are too focused on the next election and, as a result, fearful of making tough decisions. They also experience tunnel vision, he says, meaning they only concentrate on one issue at a time “without understanding the interdependency” and “the collateral effect.”

Self-interest is another malady infecting both sides of the aisle as they aim to keep their jobs and ensure their party stays in power.

“We’ve lost our sense of stewardship,” he said.

“Stewardship is not just generating results today, not just leaving things better off when you leave them when you came, but better positioned for the future,” Mr. Walker explained. “We’ve lost that sense. We need to regain it if we want our future to be better than our past.”

He identified Rep. Jody Arrington (R-Texas), who chairs the House Budget Committee, as one of the few lawmakers to realize the fiscal issues by committing to the Fiscal Commission Act and supporting a constitutional amendment that would limit government growth and stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio.

“There are others, but there’s not enough,” Mr. Walker said.

Earlier this year, the House Budget Committee advanced the Fiscal Commission Act of 2024 out of committee with bipartisan support.

The bill would establish a 16-member panel featuring six Republicans, six Democrats, and four outside experts without voting power. The group would explore strategies to balance the budget as soon as possible and assess mechanisms to enhance the long-term solvency of various entitlement programs, especially Social Security and Medicare.

Despite some consternation from several Democrats, the bipartisan push received applause, including from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

“The federal debt is on an unsustainable course, and lawmakers have been unable or unwilling to correct it,” the organization stated. “A fiscal commission would bring Members of both parties and chambers together to facilitate a conversation over how to solve these problems, without pre-prescribing any particular solution (or a solution at all).”

Hope and Change

Whether the United States can improve its fiscal trajectories remains to be seen.

Mr. Walker is hopeful about some of the legislative efforts coming out of the nation’s capital. The country is beginning to face the consequences of years of fiscal mismanagement, making it harder to sell its debt to the rest of the world.

In recent months, many Treasury auctions have led to lackluster demand among domestic and foreign investors. Market watchers have warned that global financial markets might share Fitch and Moody’s concerns about America’s fiscal deterioration.

But when discussing trillions of dollars, percentages, GDP, and servicing costs, how can the average person, worried about paying his mortgage or replacing a broken-down refrigerator, grasp or even be concerned with these trends?

According to Mr. Walker, you tap into their “head and heart.”

“You have to help them understand that we’re already seeing some of the implications of fiscal irresponsibility,” he said, adding that the causes of the Roman Empire’s demise are familiar to what is transpiring in the United States today: fiscal irresponsibility, a decline in moral values, an overextended military, and an inability to control its borders.

However, while it is vital to translate these gigantic numbers into terms the layman can understand, experts also need to “hit their heart.”

“Do they love their country? Do they love their kids, and do they love their grandkids?” he said. “We’re mortgaging their future at record rates.”

Some Boeing jets, operated by major US carriers, are plagued with persistent issues that concern travelers, prompting a shift toward what is perceived as safer Airbus jets. It appears that hardly a week passes without a new problem with a Boeing jet. 

The latest near-mid-air disaster occurred Friday morning on a Delta Air Lines Boeing 767-300, departing from John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City. An emergency slide separated from the plane during flight. 

Breaking Aviation News & Videos posted an image of Delta Flight 520’s “right-hand side emergency slide” compartment just above the wing. The compartment is wide open and missing the slide, and a fuselage panel appears to have partially separated from the plane. 

Delta Airlines 767-332ER makes emergency return to John F. Kennedy International Airport after losing its right-hand side emergency slide. pic.twitter.com/NHPJCQHgcc

— Breaking Aviation News & Videos (@aviationbrk) April 26, 2024

“After the aircraft had safely landed and proceeded to a gate, it was observed that the emergency slide had separated from the aircraft,” a Delta spokesperson told NPR News late Friday afternoon. 

The FAA told the media outlet that Delta Flight 520 “returned safely to John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York around 8:35 a.m. local time on Friday, April 26, after the crew reported a vibration,” noting, “FAA will investigate.”

A Delta Flight 520 passenger said a “very loud sound was coming from the plane, which made it difficult to hear announcements coming from the cockpit.” 

Flight tracking website FlightAware shows Delta Flight 520 returned to JFK after the mid-air incident.

Trouble at Boeing comes as a doom-loop of endless crises. Earlier this year, a door plug separated from a jet, a landing gear collapsed, engine fires occurred, a fuselage panel separated, multiple tires separated, hydraulic leaks, and pilot seat malfunctions. These incidents have sparked a confidence crisis in the planemaker. 

In markets, Boeing shares tumbled to a 1.5-year low this week as Moody’s Ratings downgraded the planemaker’s credit rating to Baa3 from Baa2 – just one notch above ‘junk’ status – with mounting headwinds plaguing its Commercial Airlines unit. 

Boeing is an absolute mess. 

By Erik-Jan van Harn and Maartje Wijffelaars of Rabobank

Summary

Europe’s population is aging and this will stunt economic growth in the coming decades.
Challenges are arising for social welfare, debt sustainability, and even strategic autonomy.
Potential remedies for the declining workforce differ per country, but overall, there are no easy solutions.
To protect the welfare state, maintain sustainable public finances, and support Europe’s quest for strategic autonomy, higher productivity growth seems essential.

The demographic transition

Change is often accompanied by difficulty and discomfort. Most of us are focused on the transitions that are most visible to us: the energy transition, a changing world order, or technological progress. However, there exists another, less conspicuous transition: that of demographics. Over the past six decades, fertility rates have plummeted, while life expectancy has surged to unprecedented levels. These shifts have fundamentally altered Europe’s demographic landscape and, consequently, its workforce.

Although Europe isn’t unique in this matter, it faces a pressing demographic challenge. Despite government efforts to boost fertility rates, progress remains limited. Cultural, sociological, and economic factors stubbornly outweigh incentives offered by governments. As we grapple with this persistent issue, what can we expect?

In this report, we delve into three key questions:

How will demographics impact the structural economic growth of major member states?
What challenges arise from this demographic shift?
What strategies can be employed to address these challenges?

Assessing the current landscape

The labor market has been significantly strong in recent years. Unemployment rates have reached historic lows and more people have entered the workforce. But as we assess the current landscape, Europe’s long-term demographic prospects appear less than optimistic.

Demographics are shifting across the continent, although the impact on labor supply varies across countries. While some nations, like France, are projected to experience relatively benign demographic effects, others – such as Germany and Italy – face a less rosy outlook. For Germany, the annual labor contribution to economic growth is projected to average around -0.5% until 2035, due to the departure of baby boomers and Generation X from the workforce (see figure 4). In Italy, the challenge persists after 2035, as fertility rates and net migration are expected to remain lower than in Germany.

Spain and the Netherlands find themselves in an intermediate position. They also grapple with an aging population and its implications for the economy, but less so than Italy and Germany in the coming two decades. In both Spain and the Netherlands, it will take until 2030 before labor supply – in hours – will start to contract. But whereas labor’s annual negative contribution will remain very small for the Netherlands, it is set to grow for Spain as time progresses.

Age is just a number, but numbers do matter

Over the past decade, a growing supply of labor has played a pivotal role in driving economic growth, especially given the relatively modest productivity gains. Any decline in or negative impact on labor’s contribution could significantly impede overall economic growth. While weaker growth in the short-term may not pose an immediate crisis, sustained challenges could emerge with respect to public services, debt sustainability, and Europe’s strategic autonomy.

Public services and pensions

As demographic projections unfold, the number of workers available declines, and the balance between retirees and active workers shifts. Currently, there is about one retiree for every three workers in the Eurozone, but this is projected to decline to two workers by 2040. This change could strain the affordability of public services. For instance, healthcare costs are expected to rise as the population ages (see figure 6), while tax revenues may stagnate or grow at a slower pace. Another concerning issue is the sustainability of pension systems. Across most European countries, pensions operate on a pay-as-you-go model, where retirees’ benefits are funded by the contributions of the currently employed. In theory, this system functions smoothly. But as the proportion of retirees increases relative to the workforce, the burden on today’s contributors becomes substantial.

Some countries have included automatic changes to the contribution, benefits, or statutory retirement age to alleviate some of the strain on public finances when needed. In the Netherlands and Italy, for example, the statutory retirement age is linked to life expectancy. While these measures dampen the blow to some extent, the burden for public finances will likely remain large and is still projected to grow in multiple countries. This burden is especially problematic if wide access to early retirement lowers the effective retirement age, as is the case in Italy.

The Netherlands stands out from its European counterparts. Approximately half of its pension entitlements are privately funded, offering a unique approach to addressing this challenge

Debt sustainability and strategic autonomy

An aging society also poses challenges to public debt sustainability. Without substantial increases in productivity growth, we can expect a slowdown in economic growth and, consequently, a decrease in tax revenues. Simultaneously, expenditures on healthcare and pensions will rise, as illustrated in Figure 6. These trends, all else being equal, will lead to a rise in the primary budget deficit and a decrease in the affordability of debt, measured by the ratio of interest payments to revenues. A growing part of revenues will be allocated to servicing interest costs on existing debt. Corrective spending in other areas and/or tax measures will likely be necessary to prevent the overall budget balance from spiralling out of control, which would simultaneously raise financing needs and public debt. Higher productivity growth may lessen the need for austerity, as it would generate higher tax revenues with the same amount of labor, but that’s not a given. It is certain, however, that higher productivity growth makes higher taxes less painful. Furthermore, productivity and efficiency gains in the health sector could dampen the increase in healthcare spending. As such, faster productivity growth could actually be crucial to prevent a negative downward spiral between austerity measures and growth in some countries.

The demographic decline will also have implications for the geopolitical aspirations of the European Union. Firstly, it will directly impact the deterioration of debt sustainability just when the EU’s strategic agenda requires substantial investments in military capabilities, the energy transition, and industrial development. Beyond the direct effects on debt servicing capacity, the demographic decline in Europe will also result in a shift in the EU’s relative geopolitical power. The EU currently boasts the world’s largest single market, and companies conform to EU product standards as a consequence. Therefore, the EU holds a position as a regulatory superpower. However, as Europe’s consumer market shrinks in the coming decades, likely so will the power derived from it. This obviously also holds for the other forms of soft power that Europe (still) commands, such as its cultural and democratic values.

The good news for the EU with respect to its relative power on the world stage is that Europe’s problems aren’t unique and that low fertility rates and aging societies are prevalent in many countries worldwide. For instance, if current trends continue, China’s population is expected to halve in the coming decades. These long term projections are inherently uncertain, but it’s easy to argue that the demographic situation is even worse in China than it is in Europe. In addition to lower fertility rates, China also suffers from emigration. On the other hand, the United States experiences a relatively higher influx of migrants and notably higher fertility rates than Europe. With respect to demographics, the United States have the advantage.

Can we avert the decline in labor supply?

The future doesn’t look too rosy for some countries, but luckily, the changes are predictable and relatively slow. This leaves room for policy intervention. But what can governments do to avert or at least slow the projected decline in labor supply (in hours)? In broad terms, three key factors shape the total labor supply within an economy: the working age population, the participation rate, and the hours worked per worker.

Working age population

First, we consider the working-age population. In the long term, the primary drivers are the fertility rate and net migration. Recent campaigns in countries such as Denmark, Italy, and China have underscored the challenge of increasing fertility rates. You simply cannot force people to have babies and decisions are determined by multiple factors including nature, culture, and economics. Even if successful, the effects of such campaigns may take up to two decades to materialize.

Migration represents another avenue to bolster the working-age population. Spain is a good example of a country where migration mitigates the effect of an aging population. However, this path is not without hurdles. Populist sentiments in some countries have made foreign workers less welcome. Furthermore, to fully counteract the decline in the working-age population, a substantial influx of migrants would be necessary. For Germany, this could mean accommodating between 200,000 and 400,000 workers annually over the coming decades. It is no given that European countries will be able to find qualified workers abroad so easily, as language and cultural barriers further complicate things.

An alternative approach involves redefining the concept of “working age” by raising the statutory retirement age. France, for instance, elevated its retirement age from 62 to 64 last year. While this strategy proves highly effective, recent experience also highlights the contentious nature of such adjustments. French President Emmanuel Macron had to water down his initial proposal to raise the retirement age to 65, when nationwide protests crippled the country. In Italy, a 2011 pension reform linked the retirement age to life expectancy, leading to a statutory retirement age of 67 as of 2019. Yet the age at which workers actually retire is quite some years earlier, as subsequent governments have opened a door to early retirement.

Participation rate

What if we could harness a larger share of our working-age population, i.e. raise the participation rate? The truth is that for most large member states, there appears to be limited room for improvement, as participation rates are high and relatively comparable. Italy is a notable outlier, however. Coincidentally, Italy also faces significant challenges. The key lies in the participation of Italian women in the labor force. Where the participation rate for Italian men closely mirrors that of other major European economies, the participation rate for Italian women is much lower. The gap in the participation rate between men and women is around 10% for most European countries, but for Italy it’s more than double that figure. If Italy can encourage more women to join the workforce, it may partially mitigate the pressing issue of its declining working age population.

Average hours worked

What if workers simply worked more? In comparison to Asia or North America, Europeans are often both ridiculed and envied for their extended summer holidays and nine-to-five work mentality. While there is some truth to this perception, significant variations exist within the Eurozone.

Consider Greece, where workers log an average of over 1,900 hours per year – approximately 8% more than their counterparts in the United States. Conversely, in Germany for example, employees annually work around 500 hours less than in Greece. However, convincing European workers to increase their hours isn’t easy, as the trend currently leans in the opposite direction – though Italy has bucked that trend since the pandemic. While composition effects of the workforce play a role, there also appears to be a structural shift in Europeans’ work-life balance. If anything, the tightness of the labor market and historically low share of people wanting to work more hours than they do, suggests it is more an issue of supply rather than demand. So encouraging Europeans to work more hours will require robust incentives. Governments are exploring how to reverse the current trend, but haven’t had much success yet.

Which measures would have the biggest impact?

Thankfully, the demographic changes unfolding across Europe are both predictable and quantifiable. This foresight grants governments a crucial window of opportunity to take action before challenges escalate. Our analysis has delved into the three factors determining the labor supply: working-age population, participation rates, and average hours worked per worker. To assess what can be done, we tune each variable separately. While isolating these effects may be unrealistic, it does clearly show which areas countries can improve in.

Increase the statutory retirement age

Let’s look at the impact of changes to the working-age population. Raising the retirement age will certainly not be a popular measure. Yet given Europe’s current political climate, it might be more feasible than significantly increasing net migration. We’ve raised the statutory retirement age to 68 by 2034 across all countries in this exercise.

This adjustment would particularly benefit Italy and France. While Italy boasts a relatively high statutory retirement age (67 years  and 3 months), only a fraction of Italians work until that age due to early retirement provisions. Given the size of this cohort, a higher actual retirement age could make an impact, but would still fall short in fully reversing the demographic challenges.

France stands in a different position. The country would largely benefit from the fact that its current retirement age falls well below 68, and its relatively positive demographic prospects could further improve.

For the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain, the effect is more modest. These countries already maintain higher participation rates for the specific age cohort compared to others. Unsurprisingly, adjusting the retirement age alone won’t fully counteract the demographic decline in Germany either.

Increase the participation rate

Another approach worth considering is boosting labor participation rates. Our analysis assumes a gradual improvement in the participation rate for the working-age population, aiming for an ambitious target of 85%, which is in line with the participation rate in the Netherlands.

As anticipated, this adjustment would yield remarkable results for Italy. The participation rate is projected to surge by over 20%-points (or more than 30% in relative terms), providing a much-needed boost. Remarkably, this increase could even reverse the anticipated decline in the labor supply, fostering growth. Spain would also benefit, albeit to a lesser extent. Since we raised the participation rate to the Dutch level, there’s no impact for the Netherlands. But of course, and in contrast to the statutory retirement age, governments cannot simply “press a button” to raise the activity rate. It may require a host of measures and incentives that work both on the demand and supply side of the labor market.

Increase the average hours worked

During the pandemic, average hours worked per worker in the Eurozone experienced a significant decline and in many countries, they haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. In some countries, the decline follows a trend that already started (long) before the pandemic. In others, a clear intensification or “new” trend is visible. In our scenario, we assume that average hours worked rises to 1800, just above the average hours worked in Italy.

The impact would be most pronounced in Western Europe, where workers currently log fewer hours. For instance, in Germany, this change would lead to a 30% increase in the labor supply. In Southern Europe, where workers already put in more hours on average, the effect would be less pronounced. Such a dramatic increase in hours worked in Western European countries would very likely lead to a worsening of other parameters, like the participation rate, as we will show in the next paragraph. Still, it underscores the potential for improvement from this perspective.

No silver bullet, just a silver tsunami

While the data above appears promising, we can hardly expect these factors to improve in isolation. There is a strong correlation between productivity, hours worked, and labor participation rates. However, the causal relationship is not entirely clear. Improved productivity could translate to fewer hours worked as the necessity for longer workweeks to sustain a certain lifestyle diminishes, for example. On the other hand, working less hours could also lead to higher productivity because of diminishing returns. Similarly, a reciprocal relationship exists between participation rates and hours worked. Individuals entering the labor force when participation rates are already high tend to work fewer hours. This likely results from maintaining an adequate worklife balance at the household level, especially when children are involved.

This sobering reality suggests that there is no silver bullet for these challenges, unless workers can be persuaded to make changes independently. Whether it’s working more hours, extending their careers, or maintaining full-time contracts even as productivity and participation rates improve, each scenario requires serious effort to convince workers. The Italians have recently demonstrated that such a thing is indeed possible. Average hours worked have risen compared to pre-pandemic years, despite the fact that the participation rate has continued to increase. Going against the usual current will require some extra commitment though.

Productivity growth remains an open question

In addition to addressing the demographic decline by encouraging increased workforce participation, another crucial factor to consider is enhancing productivity levels. Higher productivity growth could mitigate the negative impact of declining labor supply on the economy. However, achieving this goal is far from straightforward. Despite numerous attempts to revive it, productivity growth in the Eurozone has essentially halved since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). While there are high expectations for technological advancements in AI to turn the tide, the current level of uncertainty makes it too challenging to make any definitive conjectures about the potential breadth and significance of such a productivity boost. The same holds for the impact of reforms and investments spurred with the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility, especially in Southern Eurozone member states. This is also true initiatives to strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy by focusing more investment in sustainable energy, the semi-conductor sector, etc. These questions, however, are beyond the scope of this research note.

Conclusion

Decades ago, it was already clear that Europe would have to face the problems of its aging population at some point. Although governments have prepared themselves to some extent, it is unlikely to be enough to turn the tide. A shrinking (working) population will put a dent in Europe’s economic outlook, even if the potential of the working-age population is stretched to its limits. Lower economic growth does not automatically imply lower welfare to the same extent, given that you have to share the pie with fewer people. That said, it will have a profound impact on factors such as the affordability of public services and social benefits, debt sustainability, and on the Europe’s relative power compared to both its allies and rivals. In order to maintain the welfare state and prevent a negative spiral of austerity and economic growth, governments will likely have to both incentivize labor supply and find ways to improve the productivity of its workforce. This is easier said than done.

Full pdf available here.