OTTAWA, Ont. — As Canada’s Parliament resumes for its fall sitting, with a new opposition leader in place, one question lurks in the background: How long will it last?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority government is being propped up by the left-leaning New Democratic Party in an agreement that could keep the Liberals in power until 2025 in exchange for progress on key NDP priorities, including a federal dental care plan.

Over the summer, there was plenty of speculation about whether Trudeau might call a snap fall election to undermine the newly elected Conservative leader before he’d had a chance to introduce himself to Canadians.

But now, the prospect of an election in the near term seems remote. Public opinion of Trudeau has deteriorated over the summer as voters struggle with record inflation. Pierre Poilievre won a resounding victory Sept. 10 to become the new Conservative leader after attracting huge crowds and signing up hundreds of thousands of new party members during his campaign. And Canada’s last election was just one year ago, meaning any party that decides to force voters back to the polls will risk their wrath.

Still, many insiders and observers wouldn’t bet on this government going the distance until 2025. So — if not now, when?

On Tuesday, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he’s “confident” his party can push the Liberals to meet a 2023 deadline to unroll a federally administered dental care plan for children under 18, seniors, and people with disabilities. If the program doesn’t materialize by the end of that year, he said, New Democrats will withdraw their support for the government. “We’re going to stay vigilant to ensure this is accomplished,” he told reporters.

The Liberals introduced new legislation as Parliament returned on Tuesday to provide “dental benefit” payments of up to C$650 per child per year for those under 12 who don’t have dental insurance. The government is billing the stop-gap measure as the “first stage” of a national dental care plan. By 2025, the program is supposed to be expanded to all Canadian families with incomes less than C$90,000.

An NDP source told POLITICO the party is determined to see the next phase through by the end of 2023, and will likely stick with the government until then. But they believe there’s a good chance the Liberals will pull the plug and call an election shortly after that — perhaps in the winter of 2024. At that point, both parties could claim a win on dental care, even if the program was not yet available to everyone.

A Liberal source with knowledge of internal government matters said nobody’s “trying to scuttle” the agreement with the NDP, and that there’s “no reason not to have confidence” in it. “We don’t believe Canadians want an election, and certainly we’re not looking to trigger one,” the source said.

Of course, the NDP deal isn’t the only factor at play. Canadians are feeling the pinch of …read more

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/21/canada-election-parliament-00057852