Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“I gave up shame years ago.” Those words from actor John Lithgow appear to have been taken to heart by Hillary Clinton who has severed any sense of self-awareness or shame in her public comments. Lithgow, who played Bill Clinton in Broadway production of Hillary and Clinton, appears to have inspired the subject of his play. In a recent interview, Hillary Clinton heralded the prosecution of former president Donald Trump in Manhattan as “election interference” by keeping “relevant information” from voters before an election. For those of us who criticized Clinton for the funding of the infamous Steele dossier, it was a perfectly otherworldly moment.

In the interview, Clinton went after the Supreme Court for delaying a trial of Trump despite the push by Special Counsel Jack Smith for a verdict before the election. She then left many in disbelief with the following statement:

“And the one going on now currently in New York is really about election interference. It is about trying to prevent the people of our country from having relevant information that may have influenced how they could have voted in 2016 or whether they would have voted.”

In the same election, it was Hillary Clinton’s campaign that lied about funding the Steele dossier and then hiding the funding as a legal expense through then Clinton General Counsel Marc Elias.

(MSNBC/via YouTube)

The Clinton campaign staff has never been known for transparency. Buried in the detailed account is a  footnote stating that Elias “declined to be voluntarily interviewed by the Office.” Likewise, John Durham noted that “no one at Fusion GPS … would agree to voluntarily speak with the Office” while both the DNC and Clinton campaign invoked privileges to refuse to answer certain questions.

Elias, his former partner Michael Sussmann, and the campaign were later found involved in not just spreading the false claims from the Steele dossier but other false stories like the Alfa Bank conspiracy claim.

It was Elias who managed the legal budget for the campaign. We now know that the campaign hid the funding of the Steele dossier as a legal expense.

New York Times reporter Ken Vogel said that Elias denied involvement in the anti-Trump dossier. When Vogel tried to report the story, he said, Elias “pushed back vigorously, saying ‘You (or your sources) are wrong.’” Times reporter Maggie Haberman declared, “Folks involved in funding this lied about it, and with sanctimony, for a year.”

Elias was also seated next to John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, when he was asked about the role of the campaign, he denied categorically any contractual agreement with Fusion GPS. Even assuming that Podesta was kept in the dark, the Durham Report clearly shows that Elias knew and played an active role in pushing this effort.

Elias is now ironically advising Democratic campaigns on election ethics and running a group to “defend democracy.” He is still counsel to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) headed by Rep. Suzan Kay DelBene, D-Wash. Elias was later severed by the Democratic National Committee from further representation and has been previously sanctioned in federal court in other litigation.

Notably, the Federal Election Commission sanctioned the Clinton campaign for hiding the funding as a legal expense. The Clinton campaign litigated the issue and insisted that the term is broadly used to cover a wide array of payments through counsel. That is precisely what the Trump team is arguing in the Manhattan case.

Lying to the media and hiding the funding was a conscious effort to hide “relevant information that may have influenced” voters. With the help of the media, these false stories were spread throughout the country and later were used to start the Russian collusion investigation.

Famous philosopher and mathematician Blaise Pascal once declared that “the only shame is to have none.” Hillary has finally achieved that ignoble status. She appears now to have lost even the capacity for shame.

A prominent pro-Israel super PAC is gunning for Republican Congressman Thomas Massie, in retribution for his many recent votes against bills that advance Israel’s agenda in Washington. The group may have had some high-placed encouragement: Massie says House Speaker Mike Johnson recently threatened to sic the Israel lobby on Republicans who didn’t toe the pro-Israel line. 

In March 2020, Massie explains his effort to prevent a massive Covid stimulus package from being adopted without a recorded vote (Susan Walsh-AP) 

The vaguely-named United Democracy Project — the independent campaign-spending arm of the mighty American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) — announced that it’s pouring $300,000 into advertisements on Fox television affiliates in Massie’s home state of Kentucky. “We are trying to shine a light on the radical anti-Israel record of Tom Massie,” spokesman Patrick Dorton told the Louisville Courier Journal. “We want every single voter in the state of Kentucky to know about his anti-Israel actions.”

With its statewide attack, AIPAC likely intends to influence the 2026 election as wellMcClatchyDC reports that Massie is considered to be one of three favorites for the 2026 Republican nomination to replace retiring Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. 

Clearly crafted to appeal to the religious right, the 30-second ad says “Israel, the Holy Land under attack by Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah…and Congressman Tom Massie,” and points to 15 Massie votes in April against measures favored by Israel’s advocates inside the United States. The ad concludes by saying, “Everyone who cares about the Holy Land needs to know: Tom Massie is hostile to Israel.”  

https://t.co/hEJYFaBcPp pic.twitter.com/yoIdIg0pEX

— United Democracy Project (@UnitedDemocProj) May 9, 2024

Rather than having “attacked the Holy Land,” Massie has simply tried to defend the US Treasury from being plundered for the benefit of a foreign country that’s among the world’s richest.

When Speaker Mike Johnson announced he would advance a bill to give another $14.3 billion to Israel, Massie — knowing he would face the wrath and perhaps the dollars of the Israel lobby — tweeted that he would vote “no.” His rationale: “Israel has a lower debt-to-GDP ratio than the United States. This spending package has no offsets, so it will increase our debt by $14.3 billion plus interest.”

Massie also tried to defend the First Amendment, as one of only 19 representatives voting against the Antisemitism Awareness Act. Still pending in the Senate, it characterizes various statements about Israel as being antisemitic, subjecting colleges and universities to civil rights enforcement action if someone says the wrong thing. “Policing speech, religion and assembly is not the role of the federal government. In fact, it’s expressly prohibited by the U.S. Constitution,” said Massie. 

Kentucky’s Republican primary will be held on Tuesday, May 21. Massie, a star of the libertarian movement, is being opposed by two GOP challengers, Eric Deters and Michael McGinnis. 

Via his campaign’s X account, Massie said the pro-Israel super PAC was targeting him “because I am often the lone Republican for freedom of speech, against foreign aid, and opposed to wars in the Middle East.” He added that he was “urgently requesting” like-minded Americans to help him thwart the attack by donating to his campaign.   

Massie told the Courier Journal there’s reason to think Johnson may have encouraged the AIPAC to give Massie’s primary challengers some indirect help:

“This week in our GOP conference meeting, as members groused about blowback from the latest anti-antisemitism resolution, Speaker Johnson pledged to call his contacts at Jewish/Israel groups if [dissident GOP representatives] mustered opposition…

This, and the timing of the ad announcement, does raise the question of whether the ads were suggested by or sanctioned by Speaker Johnson.”

In addition to now being creatively accused of attacking the Holy Land, Massie has endured baseless accusations of antisemitism, including this gem from the editor of Commentary magazine: 

Of course you’re a no, you disingenuous piece of anti-Semitic filth. https://t.co/pI4FM6hdm5

— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) February 4, 2024

Massie has previously suggested that AIPAC’s role in US politics amounts to “foreign interference in our elections.” Critics called that sentiment an antisemitic “trope.” Undeterred, Massie last week posted a poll asking if AIPAC should be forced to register as an agent of Israel under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).  

Foreign interest lobbying group AIPAC is running $300,000 of ads as part of a pressure campaign to influence my votes in Congress.

The Foreign Agents Registration Act requires agents of foreign principals to register & disclose certain information. Should AIPAC register w/FARA?

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) May 10, 2024

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

According to new reports from the Social Security and Medicare trustees, Social Security and a Medicare fund that pays for hospital expenses will both begin running deficits in 2035 and 2036. Disappointingly, but not surprisingly, Congress was too preoccupied spending billions more on military aid for foreign countries and banning TikTok to pay attention to the looming bankruptcy of the two largest federal entitlement programs.

Many in Congress no doubt believe they can ignore the impending bankruptcy of Social Security and Medicare because they can count on the Federal Reserve to do the “dirty work” of cutting real benefits and raising taxes.

This result can be produced via the hidden, and regressive, “inflation tax.”

The Federal Reserve makes the debt-financed welfare-warfare state possible by monetizing the federal debt.

This is one reason why, even though interest on the debt is now the third largest item in the federal budget behind Social Security and Medicare and ahead of military spending, there are so few in Congress serious about cutting welfare or warfare. Those few who seek real spending cuts in welfare are smeared as “heartless” while those seeking real cuts in warfare are smeared as “anti-American” by the uniparty.

The government’s excessive spending and debt is leading to what some economists call “fiscal dominance.” Fiscal dominance occurs when a central bank must prioritize monetizing ever higher levels of government debt, giving Congress de facto control over monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve’s purchase of federal debt will result in price inflation. It will also encourage more government spending by reinforcing the uniparty delusion that, as former Vice President Dick Cheney said, “deficits don’t matter.” The Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies artificially lower the interest rates, which are the price of money. The artificially low interest rates distort the signals sent to investors and entrepreneurs, leading to malinvestment. This creates bubbles resulting in illusionary prosperity. Eventually, economic reality will catch up with the Fed-created illusions and the bubbles will burst, causing an economic downturn.

The next economic crisis will likely either be caused by or result in a rejection of the dollar’s world reserve currency status. Congress will be forced to make drastic cuts in spending while the Fed will be enabled to monetize the debt. This will result in massive public unrest potentially resulting in violence, the rise of authoritarian movements on the left and right, and increasing authoritarianism.

The only way to avoid this fate is for a critical mass of Americans to demand Congress immediately begin rolling back the welfare-warfare state, starting with our bloated military budget. The savings from this can be used to help protect those currently reliant on government welfare and entitlement programs as those programs are phased out and the job of providing aid is returned to private charities, churches, and local communities. Congress should also rein in the Federal Reserve by passing the Audit the Fed bill, legalizing alternative currencies, and forbidding the Fed from purchasing government debt.

Since the 2008 meltdown, Federal Reserve apologists have spent a lot of time saying that Audit the Fed puts Congress in charge of monetary policy while ignoring the fact that a real threat to the central bank’s autotomy is the growth in federal spending and debt. The goal, though, should be to abolish the Federal Reserve, not protect it. Those who truly want a monetary system free from political interference should join the movement to restore government’s constitutional limits and separate money and state.  

Devo Seereeram, a Consulting Geotechnical Engineer and the owner of Devo Engineering has deemed the anomaly that has emerged in Central Florida to be a “sand volcano”. 

The issue surfaced at a 300-million-gallon wastewater reservoir located west of State Road 429 in Apopka, near Golden Gem Road. This facility holds water intended for irrigating Apopka, Altamonte Springs, and nearby regions. It stores excess rainwater for use during dry periods, according to FOX 35.

But mother earth has responded that the facility may not be located at the best possible location, Seereeram said: “This is ‘Mother Nature’ telling us we can’t do certain things, and we are going to respect that and respond and modify.”

Speaking about the facility, Seereeram continued: “It’s one of the most important facilities we can be built in Central Florida. From an environmental standpoint, there’s absolutely no way we can keep putting treated wastewater into our streams, directly into the streams anymore.”

FOX 35 reported that the construction team excavated too deeply and excessively thinned the land while building the storage area. This overburdened the ground, leading to a collapse similar to snow breaking through a roof.

A sinkhole formed, and the combined air and water pressure ruptured a protective tarp, releasing 130 million gallons of water back into the upper Floridan aquifer and forming a sand volcano.

Devo Engineering has previously addressed similar issues and is planning to reinforce and fill in parts of the land, reducing storage capacity but preventing further sand volcanoes. The engineers are now racing against time to complete the repairs before Central Florida’s rainy season begins, the report says.

Seereeram concluded: “Here we have a situation where we have, fortunately, discovered it early. But it gave us enough time. So it was not a catastrophic release of water like a dam failure.”

What’s the over/under on how long it takes Democrats to blame this obviously man-made anomaly on climate change, before using it to try and pass trillions of dollars in new spending?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Leftist outlet The Huffington Post is upset that Donald Trump has suggested that the death penalty should be extended to drug kingpins and child sex traffickers.

In an article headlined “There’s A GOP Plan For An Execution Spree If Trump Wins The White House,” the outlet points to remarks Trump made two years ago.

The Huffington Post is freaking out that #DonaldTrump allies are planning to expand the #deathpenalty to include sexual abuse of children – There’s A #GOP Plan For An Execution #Spree If Trump Wins The White House – https://t.co/07ovo9g9Sv

— Jeff Hertzog (@_jeffhertzog) May 11, 2024

He stated that while it “sounds horrible” to advocate for the death penalty, countries that don’t have a “drug problem” are “those that institute a very quick trial, death penalty sentence” for traffickers.

“You execute a drug dealer, and you’ll save 500 lives, because they kill on average 500 people,” Trump asserted at the time.

The article cites former Trump DOJ official Gene Hamilton, noting that he previously advocated pursuing the death penalty for violent criminals, particularly those convicted of sexual abuse of children. 

Hamilton wrote that the DOJ “should also pursue the death penalty for applicable crimes—particularly heinous crimes involving violence and sexual abuse of children—until Congress says otherwise through legislation.”

By referring to past court decisions, the piece subtly argues that the death penalty for child rape “would violate constitutional protections against cruel and unusual punishment.”

It also negatively points to efforts in states such as Florida to expand the death penalty to such horrific crimes, before pointing out that Joe Biden has previously opposed execution entirely, but is currently remaining silent.

The article then points to multiple bills in the House and Senate that seek to abolish the death penalty for any crime.

Why is the left apparently triggered by the suggestion to extend the death penalty to make it an option for convicted violent child rapists?

*  *  *

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The cost-of-living squeeze is crushing low-income consumers, so much that Goldman’s top consumer trader, Scott Feiler, recently pointed out that his desk is “getting bearish on consumer and our soft landing basket.” Days ago, Goldman analysts led by Bonnie Herzog provided clients with a fascinating list of corporate America’s warnings about mounting cracks materializing in the consumer space. 

A Bloomberg report, citing new data from research firm Black Box Intelligence, continues the theme of the low-income consumer under severe financial stress. This data shows that fast-casual dining foot traffic across New York and New Jersey has abruptly plunged into early spring. 

The slide in foot traffic comes as Red Lobster is considering a bankruptcy filing, and TGI Friday’s is in distress, closing stores and working with Guggenheim Partners to address its debt problem as sales decline. 

Moody’s Ratings wrote in a report last week that rising menu prices have slowed fast-casual sales as the working poor ditch restaurants for food at home. 

Dennis Cantalupo, chief executive officer of credit-rating and consulting shop Pulse Ratings, said restaurant chains relying on that demographic “are feeling it the most.’ 

Cantalupo warned operators are concerned about a more prolonged slump since price-conscious consumers are eating at home. 

The big takeaway here is that working-poor consumers are pulling back on restaurant spending as pandemic excess savings have been depleted and credit card debt has hit insurmountable levels, just to survive the era of failed Bidenomics. 

By Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

Whose side will Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson be on if protesters become lawbreakers at the August Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and how will he direct police to respond?

Concerns that Johnson will side with lawbreakers already are common, and Johnson’s  interview published Sunday by the Chicago Tribune should increase those concerns.

Mayor Johnson on MSNBC

The interviewers asked Johnson whether he agreed with police who forcibly broke up a recent protest at the Chicago Art Institute, arresting many protesters. Johnson answered that his primary concern was protesters’ rights. The reporters pressed further, asking, “Was the final response, the outcome — which led to dozens of arrests — was that necessary?”

Johnson’s answer:

Well, in some instances — and I’ve been a part of these demonstrations — in some instances, arrests are part of the objective. I’ll say it like that. I’ve taken arrest before. It’s not unprecedented for demonstrators to take arrest. The most important thing, though, here is that the First Amendment? Protected. Keeping people safe, it’s the primary goal, and we’ve done both of those.

In other words, getting arrested for breaking the law while protesting is no biggie.

The Chicago Tribune’s editorial board recognized the concern about what side Johnson will be on. “Democratic bosses,” their editorial says, “have figured something else out too. Chicago’s activist mayor is sympathetic to the pro-Palestinian protesters and likes to refer to the police as an entity separate from himself rather than under his control. Thus, he cannot be counted on to protect the convention and the party’s prospects.”

Others noting the same concern include the Wall Street Journal. A column there asked last week whether Democrats can trust Johnson to protect the convention. The city’s weak response to protests at the University of Chicago, the Journal said, added to questions about the political will to enforce the law.

The deliberate weakness in that response is now clear. In a Saturday MSNBC interview with Rev. Al Sharpton, Johnson said expressly that he opposed the university’s plan to clear the camp and assistance from the Chicago police.

Even left-leaning Politico wrote in some detail last week about concerns over what side Johnson will be on. From Politico: “There’s already a joke going around Democratic strategist circles that the main difference between 2024 and 1968 is that the Chicago mayor this year will be on the side of the protesters, not the cops.”

It’s no joke.

Former President Trump revealed at a large rally on Saturday evening in Wildwood, New Jersey, that if re-elected, he would sign an executive order on his first day in office to address offshore wind development along the East Coast. 

Trump told a crowd of thousands that windmills are killing whales and fish. He pointed out that only a small number of whales died before wind farm developments, but now, whales are dying “all the time.” 

A dead humpback whale washed up at Atlantic City on Jan 7, and was observed to have head trauma (via @AtlanticCity911 on Twitter) 

“We are going to make sure that that ends on day one,” he said, adding, “I’m going to write it out in an executive order.”

Made the claim back in 2022 President Trump would end offshore wind development on day one, in fact President Trump will sign an executive order on day one. FULL STOKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/TJhxLmJU49

— Patrick Jay (@Jaysay1776) May 12, 2024

Trump has said before, “Windmills are causing whales to die in numbers never seen before.” He made that comment at a campaign rally in South Carolina in 2023.  

(Illustration by The Epoch Times)

“They’re washing up ashore. I saw it this weekend, three of them came up. You wouldn’t see it once a year. Now they’re coming up on a weekly basis,” he continued. 

Trump is correct. Since 2016, or around the time offshore wind development began to ramp up, there has been a noticeable uptick in whale deaths along the East Coast. 

Data from NOAA Fisheries shows humpback whale strandings from Maine to Florida have surged post-2016. 

Meanwhile, New Jersey has been on a quest to distinguish itself as the top offshore wind state on the east coast. The Garden State has approved three offshore wind farms and is soliciting more requests. 

However, left-leaning corporate media has routinely blasted Trump for attacking wind farms – calling his attacks “largely baseless.” Bloomberg, which prides itself in ESG, said, “There is no evidence linking offshore wind development to whale deaths.” 

Regarding the promise of the executive order, we’re sure he’ll fulfill it – just add it to the stack of executive orders that will likely be released on day one (only if he gets reelected). 

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The net result is America’s working class is up against the wall, maxed out.

Let’s start by defining the working class in a meaningful way rather than by tossing around meaningless income metrics which implicitly suggest that exceeding some semi-arbitrary income bracket will magically lift a working class household into the middle class.

In the real world, in terms of class status it doesn’t matter whether the household income is $30,000 or $130,000; what matters is 1) ownership of assets that have bubbled higher in the Everything Bubble which then provide a buffer of wealth that can be tapped when misfortune strikes, and 2) a cost of living that is consistently and significantly lower than net income, enabling regular savings.

In other words, a household earning $130,000 that owns negligible assets / wealth buffers and consumes every dollar of income just to service its debts and pay all the other bills is working class, while the household earning $30,000 that owns meaningful assets and frugally gets by on $20,000 a year is middle class. The household that earns $130,000 (generally considered a middle class income) but has a net worth is $2 million, no debt and an annual cost of living of $90,000 is upper middle class.

Income by itself misses what’s truly important: wealth buffers and a lifestyle that leaves surplus income to be consistently saved and invested.

While we focus on the alarming leap in the cost of living over the past three years, we lose focus on the larger issue: America’s working class has been squeezed for decades by the relentless decline in the purchasing power of wages. I explained how to calculate this in We Feel Poorer Because We Are Poorer: Here’s Proof (December 4, 2023).

The devastating decline in the purchasing power of wages since 1975 is beyond dispute. As I noted in the above post: “The status quo cheerleaders in the Ministry of Truth ignore the $5,000 annual cost increases in essentials while trumpeting the $100 decline in occasional discretionary purchases. Your rent costs you 100 more hours of work, but you save $100 on airfare, so it all evens out. Um, no.”

This chart reveals that the decades of hyper-globalization-hyper-financialization transferred trillions of dollars from wage earners to owners of capital. I explained this in Labor Rising: Will Class Identity Finally Matter Again? (May 1, 2024).

As the purchasing power of wages fell and costs increased, it became more difficult to save earnings and climb the ladder of social mobility. The net result is the bottom 50%’s share of the nation’s financial wealth has plummeted to a rounding error / signal noise: 2.6%. A great many of the bottom 80% households have little financial wealth to serve as buffers when misfortune strikes.

Many of the bottom 90% of households own a family home….

But “ownership” doesn’t measure equity or mortgage debt. This chart shows that the bottom 90% “own” the majority of debt that drains income, while the wealthy own income-producing assets:

Meanwhile, with interest rates rising, the cost of servicing debts is soaring: since the majority of debt is “owned” by the working class and middle class, the higher interest payments burden the many, not the few.

The working class households which don’t own a home are being squeezed by sharply higher rents: as for buying a house now, that is a luxury only affordable to the top layer of American households.

The net result is America’s working class is up against the wall, maxed out: whatever lines of credit that were available have been tapped (credit cards, “buy now, pay later” credit, etc.) and wage increases are soaked up immediately by higher costs for virtually everything.

The ladder of universally accessible social mobility has been broken. The stresses generated are already visible, but the political-social consequences are still ahead, and once they manifest, economic earthquakes will follow.

*  *  *

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China has lots of economic problems (even if the market has been surprisingly generous in the past 4 months and allowed Chinese stocks to surge despite any actual economic rebound or recovery), but this is a new one.

It is hardly a secret that for much of the past 15 years, and certainly in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse, it was China’s unstoppable credit creation that lifted the world out of a deflationary shock time and again, and indeed it is a fact that as long as we can remember, China’s broadest credit aggregate, Total Social Financing, was always positive, come rain, blizzard, or shina.

But in a stunning reversal, the latest credit data published over the weekend by the PBOC revealed that for the first time since late 2005 – nearly 20 years ago – China’s Total Social Financing turned negative!

The drop was thanks to a combination of weak loan demand and slow pace of bond issuance, but whatever the reason, there is a bigger problem: China can’t grow the economy without injecting billions (or trillions) of credit into it. Yet, without credit demand – at any interest rate or price – all the money that China does inject will go into various asset bubbles, which means we are back at square one.

Here are the details:

New CNY loans: RMB 730bn in April (RMB loans to the real economy: RMB 331bn) vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 914bn
Outstanding CNY loan growth: 9.6% yoy in April (+8.0% mom sa ann); March: 9.6% yoy (+8.7% mom sa ann).
Total social financing (TSF flow, reported): RMB -199bn in April, vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 941bn.
TSF stock growth: 8.3% yoy in April, vs. 8.7% in March. The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock: 3.5% in April (seasonally adjusted annualized rate), vs. 8.2% in March.
M2: 7.2% yoy in April (-1.6% mom sa ann estimated by GS) vs. Bloomberg consensus: 8.3% yoy, GS forecast: 8.0% yoy. March: 8.3% yoy (+6.4% mom sa ann).

According to Goldman, it wasn’t just the negative print in TSF that conveyed weak credit demand: so did the composition of RMB loan data which showed household loans contracted in April, and corporate loans expanded mainly due to a surge in bill financing. As the bank further adds, the broad weakness in money and credit data likely reflects

the focus of policymakers on optimizing the structure and effectiveness of loan extension;
more stringent measures to tackle “idle money circulation” in the financial system (e.g., corporates’ borrowing for redeposits).
deposit outflows from banks to financial markets (particularly the bond market).

Now a closer look at the narrative behnid the numbers:

Total social financing (TSF) flows turned negative in April, the first time since October 2005, significantly below market expectations. The disappointing TSF data was driven by weak loan demand and slow pace of bond issuance. Bill financing surged as banks tried to fill in unused loan quota, which reduced the amount of undiscounted bankers’ acceptance bills. Shadow banking credit (undiscounted bankers’ acceptance bills, trust loans, entrusted loans) declined by RMB 246bn vs. an expansion of RMB 223bn in March. Bond net issuance fell sharply in April compared with March: Government bond net issuance moderated to RMB 159bn vs. RMB 478bn in March, while corporate bond net issuance was negative in April after seasonal adjustment (RMB -88bn vs. RMB 260bn in March). In year-over-year terms, TSF stock growth slowed to 8.3% from 8.7% in March. The sequential growth of TSF stock moderated to 3.5% mom sa annualized in April from 8.2% in March. For
New CNY loans missed market expectations notably as well in April, and the sequential growth of RMB loans slowed to 8.0% mom sa annualized from 8.7% in March. That said, year-over-year growth of RMB loans was flat at 9.6% in April. The composition of new loans showed weak credit demand as household loans contracted and bill financing grew much faster than medium-to-long term corporate loans. After Goldman’s seasonal adjustment, household loans contracted by -0.4% month-over-month annualized in April, vs +5.6% in March. Bill financing rose 70.4% month-over-month annualized in April (vs. -3.2% in March), while corporate medium-to-long term loans growth accelerated modestly to 11.8% month-over-month annualized in April (vs. 9.5% in March). The sizeable gap between “total new loans” (which was RMB 730bn in April) and the “new RMB loan under TSF” (which was RMB 331bn in April) was mainly due to the RMB 261bn expansion of loans to non-bank financial institutions.
M2 growth slowed materially to 7.2% yoy in April (vs. 8.3% in March). On a sequential basis, M2 declined by 1.6% month-over-month annualized, vs +6.4% in March. Year-over-year growth of M1 turned negative in April, the first time since January 2022. The Financial News, a media outlet affiliated with PBOC, reported that the slowdown of M2 growth was driven by three factors: 1) deposit outflows from banks to non-bank financial institutions for higher returns of wealth management products, thanks to falling bond yields and lower deposit rates (more on this shortly); 2) more stringent measures to address “idle money circulation” (e.g., corporates’ borrowing for redeposits); 3) lower incentives for local governments to boost deposit/loan growth due to changes in accounting methods of value-added in financial sectors (in an effort by the central government to improve the GDP measurement).
4. April’s credit and money data consistently pointed to weak credit demand. Recent policy communications suggest that the PBOC continued to focus on enhancing monetary policy transmission and improving the efficiency of loan usage. Looking ahead, the growth of new CNY loans and M2 may gradually slow down further, as the PBOC highlighted weakening relationship between economic growth and credit expansion. Taken together with soft year-to-date growth of TSF stock, we revise down our TSF stock growth forecast to 9.5% for 2024 (vs. 10.0% previously). In light of upcoming acceleration of government bond issuance, we continue to expect two more RRR cuts and one policy rate cut through the remainder of this year.

Looking ahead, Goldman expects government bond issuance to pick up in late Q2, and the PBOC to facilitate the government bond issuance by increasing interbank liquidity. We continue to forecast one 25bp RRR cut in Q2.

While economists are trying to goal seek this latest disappointment out of China, the market has already priced it in, and overnight Chinese government bonds gained, as the poor credit data fueled expectation of more monetary policy easing and allowed traders to shrug off debt supply concerns. The offshore yuan touched its weakest level in over a week.
Bonds. And with credit demand plunging 10Y yields are dumping just fast; here are some more from Bloomberg:

China plans to start selling the first batch of its 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) of ultra-long special central government bonds on Friday.
Weakness in credit print “adds to the possibility of another RRR cut” coming before end-2Q, likely coinciding with the special bond issuance and a step-up of local government bond issuance for the remainder of 2Q,” Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Stanchard Chartered Bank said

10-year bond yields fell to 2.29% versus previous close at 2.34% on Saturday; the domestic interbank bond market was open on May 11 due to holiday adjustment

Finally, China’s credit in April shrank for the first time as government bond sales slowed, while loan expansion was worse than expected in a sign of weak demand.

Bottom line: the yuan is dumping, credit is not only stalling but outright contracting, and while stocks are modestly higher as traders hope thay finally bottom-ticked the rebound, the collapsing Chinese yields signal that much more deflation is coming unless Beijing can arrest it. In either case, China is now facing a toxic cocktail of two equally bad choices: i) devalue the currency in hopes of kickstarting exports (since nothing else works), or ii) do nothing and watch as the economy spontaneously collapses in on itself and leads to a global economic shockwave that forces all developed central banks to quickly turn on the money printer.