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Watch Live: The Great Gold Vs Bitcoin Debate

Watch Live: The Great Gold Vs Bitcoin Debate

 

https://t.co/z5tfJThm9J

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 3, 2024

 

ZeroHedge is partnering with Crypto Banter to bring together four top minds to debate one of the most combustible topics of the day: gold or bitcoin?

In the anti-crypto corner is the man whose name is synonymous with “gold”, infamous crypto bear Peter Schiff. Alongside Schiff will be “Dr. Doom”, renowned economist Nouriel Roubini.

Arguing in favor of crypto will be Anthony Scaramucci – wealth manager with over $10 billion in AUM – as well as day-one crypto veteran Erik Voorhees, founder of ShapeShift and torch-bearer for the asset class’s libertarian roots.

The debate will be moderated by Ran Neuner, founder and host of Crypto Banter, one of the largest digital asset news channels on YouTube.

ZeroHedge would also like to thank our sponsors for this debatePreserve Gold and BITLAYER — “Layer 2. The future of Bitcoin.” Whether you’re a fan of gold or Bitcoin, you probably see the wisdom in diversifying away from U.S. dollars. Do so by visiting their websites and checking out their products. ZeroHedge Goldbugs can access a special offer from Preserve Gold by texting “ZERO” to 50505.

And so, without further ado, let’s get ready to rumble. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/03/2024 – 18:25

 

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Ford’s $120,000 Loss Per Vehicle Shows California EV Goals Are Impossible

Ford’s $120,000 Loss Per Vehicle Shows California EV Goals Are Impossible

Authored by John Seiler via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

So much for California’s mandate that “all new passenger cars, trucks, and SUVs sold in California will be zero-emission vehicles by 2035,” according to the California Air Resources Board. It imposed the mandate at the request of Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The all-electric F-150 Lightning from Ford is displayed at the Los Angeles Auto Show in Los Angeles on Nov. 18, 2021. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

On April 24, Ford reported it lost $132,000 for each of its 10,000 electric vehicles sold in the first quarter of 2024, according to CNN. The sales were down 20 percent from the first quarter of 2023 and would “drag down earnings for the company overall.”

The losses include “hundreds of millions being spent on research and development of the next generation of EVs for Ford. Those investments are years away from paying off.” Ford is the only major carmaker breaking out EV numbers by themselves. But other marques likely suffer similar losses.

Californians bought 1.78 million new vehicles in 2023, reported the California New Car Dealers Association. Multiply that number by $132,000 and you get $235 billion. That would bankrupt every car manufacturer, meaning they just would pull out of selling anything in the state.

The California government would have to set up socialist, government-owned companies to make the cars, like the infamous Yugo. Dubbed “the worst car in history,” it was sold in America in the 1980s and was made by the communist Yugoslav government just before the country itself broke up in 1991.

A man works on one of the last Yugos at Serbia’s Zastava car plant on the production line in Kragujevac on Nov. 9, 2008. The car became popular in the local market due to its low price and fuel consumption. (Aleksandar Stankovic/AFP via Getty Images)

Battery Problems

The Epoch Times also reported that same day, April 24, “Ford Recalling More Than 55,000 SUVs and Trucks in Canada Over Battery Issues.” The Transport Canada notice read, “A sudden loss of power to the wheels or a vehicle that doesn’t restart after a start-stop event could increase the risk of a crash. Additionally, hazard lamps that don’t work could make the vehicle less visible and increase the risk of a crash.”

Also, most of Canada gets really cold in the winter. “The effects of cold weather on car batteries start to become pronounced when the temperature drops below freezing for an extended period,” explained United Tire & Service. “At a temperature of 32 degrees Fahrenheit, your battery will lose about 30 percent of its power. Your battery will continue to get weaker as the temperatures get colder. In fact, your battery will lose about 60 percent of its power at 0 degrees Fahrenheit.”

In Montreal, the average low temperature in January is 10 degrees Fahrenheit. In Edmonton it’s 8 degrees.

Most of California enjoys the balmiest weather on earth. But in January 2023, the temperature around Bridgeport, near Yosemite National Park, dropped to minus 27 degrees. In such areas, EVs are almost completely useless except for rich people in the summer.

Cheap Electric Cars?

But isn’t Tesla working on cheaper models, not just the expensive ones? Aren’t they figuring out what Ford couldn’t? “Exclusive: Tesla scraps low-cost car plans amid fierce Chinese EV competition,” headlined Reuters on April 5.

However, on April 24 Yahoo Finance headlined, “Tesla stock surges as EV maker will ‘accelerate’ the launch of cheaper cars. Tesla had previously said it would focus on its robotaxi product after paring back plans for a lower-cost car.”

Who knows what’s going on with mercurial Tesla CEO Elon Musk? But I would never count him out.

So what about those cheap cars financed by communist China? In February, the Biden administration announced it would investigate Chinese “smart” cars, which like your cell phone—probably also made in China—scoop up increasing amounts of data about your life.

China is determined to dominate the future of the auto market, including by using unfair practices,’’ President Joe Biden said. “China’s policies could flood our market with its vehicles, posing risks to our national security. I’m not going to let that happen on my watch.’’

On April 11, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) called for banning Chinese EVs as “an existential threat to the American auto industry. Ohio knows all too well how China illegally subsidizes its companies, putting our workers out of jobs and undermining entire industries, from steel to solar manufacturing. We cannot allow China to bring its government-backed cheating to the American auto industry.”

So far no action has been taken. But presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in March promised he would impose a 100 percent tariff on Chinese cars, EV or otherwise, built in Mexico.

No CO2 Threat

Meanwhile, the carbon monoxide emitted by gas and diesel engines is being shown not to cause global warming. Reported No Tricks Zone, “Three Polish physicists have focused their attention on this saturation principle as it applies to CO2 in three recently published papers (Kubicki et al., 2024, 2022, and 2020). Their latest (Kubicki et al., 2024), published in Applications in Engineering Science, summarizes the experimental evidence from their 2020 and 2022 publications substantiating the conclusion that ‘as a result of saturation processes, emitted CO2 does not directly cause an increase in global temperature.’

The authors are concerned about the recent push to rely on modeling and assumptions about CO2’s capacity to drive changes in global temperature rather than observational evidence. They point out the current CO2-is-the-climate-control-knob zeitgeist is no more than a hypothesis.”

The scientists themselves wrote: “This unequivocally suggests that the officially presented impact of anthropogenic CO2 increase on Earth’s climate is merely a hypothesis rather than a substantiated fact.”

As I have written several times in The Epoch Times, the CO2 from California vehicles is minuscule compared to the massive spewing from coal plants still being built in massive numbers in communist China. See from March 25, “‘Green Innovation’ Study Shows California CO2 Policies Mainly Help China.”

Conclusion: EV Mandates Are a Delusion

California’s 100 percent zero-emission vehicle mandate by 2035 is a tailpipe dream. It’s pushed by ambitious politicians like Mr. Newsom and financed by billionaire environmentalists like Bill Gates. It has no basis in reality.

At some point in a couple of years, a coalition will form to get rid of these mandates, as well as President Biden’s national goal of more than half of all vehicles sold being EVs by 2030. Auto dealers, especially in California, will work with automakers and the Democratic-aligned United Auto Workers union to push the mandates further into the future, say 2045. Later, the date will be pushed to 2055, and so on.

Mr. Newsom’s term as governor ends in January 2027. President Biden, if reelected, must leave in January 2029. California’s term limits also mandate a maximum of 12 years in the Legislature.

Today’s politicians will be gone soon enough, their green battery dreams wafted away like the thick exhaust from a classic 1957 Chevy.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/03/2024 – 18:20

 

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College Fraternities Rise Up Against Marxist Protesters Chanting For ‘Socialist Takeover Of America’ 

College Fraternities Rise Up Against Marxist Protesters Chanting For ‘Socialist Takeover Of America’ 

Colleges and universities are witnessing a coordinated push to spark a new movement resembling Black Lives Matter ahead of the summer months. This time, it’s under the guise of defending Palestine while embedding Marxist ideologies, such as quite literally calling for a ‘revolution’ to usher in ‘a socialist reconstruction of the USA.’ 

An extremist on the mic says: “There’s only one solution, intifada revolution. We must have a revolution so we can have a socialist reconstruction of the USA.”

This isn’t just about Israel/Palestine. It’s an attempt of the Marxist takeover of America. Our colleges have become… pic.twitter.com/2IEqRyuorB

— A Man Of Memes (@RickyDoggin) April 30, 2024

Once again, George Soros and his Open Society Foundation are funding Marxist chaos across campuses, with Soros-funded Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) having organized them. These professional agitators are trained to rise up for revolution. 

Biden has sparked a wildfire. pic.twitter.com/YXbHCKONcm

— Edward Snowden (@Snowden) April 25, 2024

So, not enough college students? These radical groups had to import ‘outsiders’. 

Recall that the son of pro-chaos billionaire Soros, Alex, visited the White House over a dozen times for meetings since 2021. 

Meanwhile, Axios reports Democrats are in full-blown ‘panic mode’ behind the scenes as campus takeovers by extremists of their own party produce terrible optics ahead of the presidential election in November. 

“The longer they continue, and the worse that they get, the worse it’s going to be for the election overall,” one House Democrat said.

The House Democrat warned that school chaos will only “bring out [the public’s] most conservative side.” 

What’s clear is that campus protesters are becoming a political liability for Biden and Democrats. That’s because Americans aren’t falling this time for the fake BLM-style protests. Many folks are realizing just how artificial these protests have become. 

One X user asked: “Is it  about Free Palestine? or Attack on Capitalism?” 

They outlined the four main goals of Marxists stoking campus chaos: 

 Gain Power
Destabilize the System
ATTACK CAPITALISM!
Usher in their Marxist Utopia

Is it really about Free Palestine? or Attack on Capitalism?
The FOUR goals of the Socialist are…
1. Gain Power
2. Destabilize the System
3. ATTACK CAPITALISM!
4. Usher in their Marxist Utopia pic.twitter.com/VhD8xhlg9w

— gala gauthier (@Eclipsiay) April 27, 2024

X user Western Lensman might want to update his list… 

A Warning to America: 25 Ways the US is Being Destroyed | Explained in Under 2 Minutes pic.twitter.com/qwmBO8DmMt

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) April 22, 2024

Let’s remind readers that right before the campus uprisings, there was a surge in Maxists, masquerading as pro-Palestinian protesters, attempting to shut down the nation’s critical infrastructure, including bridges, highways, and airport terminals. We asked at the time, “Who are these pro-Palestinian protesters? And who are they being funded by?” 

Shutting down critical infrastructure and causing chaos on campuses has nothing to do with helping poor Palestinians, just like burning down businesses and police stations during the Black Lives Matter riots had nothing to do with helping working poor blacks. These movements are hijacked by Marxists, with one intention only: crash the US economy and abolish capitalism.

Besides Soros, could it also be the Saudis, Qataris, and dark Middle Eastern monies that plowed money into Ivy League schools to prop up radical leftists with one common goal? That goal could be to destroy America from within. 

After all, America’s enemies don’t even need to fire a shot when woke Harvard University staff can allow the film screening of “How to Blow Up A Pipeline” to students. 

Harvard is promoting domestic ecoterrorism.

This is disgraceful. https://t.co/1bB8fpbuzn

— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) March 25, 2024

 The Marxist takeover of America is happening through colleges that have become indoctrination camps for the youth. 

Yet the FBI, CIA, and other intelligence agencies are turning a blind eye to this chaos. They’re more focused on going after President Biden’s political opponents. 

However, out of all this chaos this week, there was a glimmer of hope as fraternities at universities stood up to protect Old Glory. 

The most notable were the boys at Pi Kappa Phi at UNC – who protected Old Glory from protesters. The boys turned around and raised $500,000 on GoFundMe to throw an epic rager for their heroic patriotic duties. 

Frats across the nation got the memo…

They, too, must defend against Marxism.

A small group of Palestine protestors just showed up at University of Mississippi.

Frat boys came out and drowned out the protesting with Star Spangled Banner. pic.twitter.com/ADYMAxQb8t

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) May 2, 2024

University of Mississippi frat boys faced off with Free Palestine protestors today.

The images speak for themselves. pic.twitter.com/4mPsR9MUiu

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) May 2, 2024

ASU FRAT BOYS

ROLLED UP LAST NIGHT

SPOONKED SOME FREE PALESTINE CAMPS

LIBERATED THE CAMPUS IN 10 MINUTES

SALUTE

WE WANT TO BUY ALL FRAT MALES WHO LIBERATE CAMPUSES BEER

TO BATTLE!!!

TAKE YOUR SCHOOLS BACK! pic.twitter.com/EjafWn7YMs

— 👑 🇺🇸 0HOUR 🇺🇸👑 (@0HOUR) April 27, 2024

🔴 Frat Brother Shares Patriotic Message After Protecting American Flag From Pro-Palestine Protestorshttps://t.co/krgR1RMihR

— Resist the Mainstream (@ResisttheMS) May 2, 2024

Frat boys are more patriotic than the president of the United States

I stand with anyone who hoists the American flag over the flag of “Palestine” or the pride flag https://t.co/Lqil68kTvJ

— YachtMoney (@yat023) May 3, 2024

NOW- ‘Taking Back America’- Patriotic frat boys with Trump flags turn up to rally at Ole Miss, overshadowing the far-left Palestine protest on the university’s campus pic.twitter.com/LHpHO2y0Os

— Overton (@OvertonLive) May 2, 2024

Let’s see what the frat boys can do at the southern border.

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/03/2024 – 18:00

 

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The Golden Age Of Disinformation Has Only Just Begun

The Golden Age Of Disinformation Has Only Just Begun

Authored by Boyan Radoykov via The Epoch Times,

Disinformation is all about power, and because of the harmful and far-reaching influence that disinformation exerts, it cannot achieve much without power.

As a tool for shaping public perceptions, disinformation can be used by authoritarian regimes and democracies alike. The dissemination of false information is not a new practice in human history. However, over the last few decades, it has become professionalized and has taken on exorbitant proportions at both national and international levels.

The Origins of Disinformation

Disinformation can be understood as misleading information, intentionally produced and deliberately disseminated, to mislead public opinion, harm a target group, or advance political or ideological objectives.

The term disinformation is a translation of the Russian дезинформация (dezinformatsiya). On Jan. 11, 1923, the Politburo of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union decided to create a Department of Disinformation. Its mission was “to mislead real or potential adversaries about the true intentions” of the USSR. From then on, disinformation became a tactic of Soviet political warfare known as “active measures,” a crucial element of Soviet intelligence strategy involving falsification, subversion, and media manipulation.

During the Cold War, from 1945 to 1989, this tactic was used by numerous intelligence agencies. The expression “disinformation of the masses” came into increasing use in the 1960s and became widespread in the 1980s. Former Soviet bloc intelligence officer Ladislav Bittman, the first disinformation professional to defect to the West, observed in this regard that ”The interpretation [of the term] is slightly distorted because public opinion is only one of the potential targets. Many disinformation games are designed only to manipulate the decision-making elite, and receive no publicity.”

With its creation in July 1947, the CIA was given two main missions: to prevent surprise foreign attacks against the United States and to hinder the advance of Soviet communism in Europe and Third World countries. During the four decades of the Cold War, the CIA was also at the forefront of U.S. counter-propaganda and disinformation.

The Soviet Union’s successful test of a nuclear weapon in 1949 caught the United States off guard and led to the advent of the two nuclear powers clashing on the world stage in an international atmosphere of extreme tension, fear, and uncertainty. In 1954, President Dwight Eisenhower received a top-secret report from a commission chaired by retired Gen. James H. Doolittle, which concluded: “If the United States is to survive, long-standing American concepts of ‘fair play’ must be reconsidered. We must develop effective espionage and counterespionage services and must learn to subvert, sabotage and destroy our enemies by more clever, more sophisticated and more effective methods than those used against us. It may become necessary that the American people be acquainted with, understand and support this fundamentally repugnant philosophy.” Of course, “repugnant” philosophy includes subversion through disinformation.

Although the United States had high expertise in this field, it did not react much to the disinformation that was sent its way until 1980, when a false document claimed that Washington supported apartheid in South Africa. Later on, they also took offense at Operation Denver, a Soviet disinformation campaign aimed at having the world believe that the United States had intentionally created HIV/AIDS.

In the United States, the intellectual influence of Edward Bernays is at the root of institutional political propaganda and opinion manipulation. A double nephew of Sigmund Freud, he worked as a press agent for Italian tenor Enrico Caruso and for the Ballets Russes. He took part, alongside President Woodrow Wilson, in the Creel Commission (1917), which helped turn American public opinion in favor of going to war. His wife and business partner, Doris Fleischman, advised him to avoid using the overused term “propaganda.” Instead, she coined the term “public relations” to replace it, a term still in use today.

China and Its Digital Authoritarianism

In China, deception, lies, and the rewriting of history are disinformation techniques used by the Chinese Communist Party, according to tactics learned in the Soviet Union in the 1950s. Today, the CCP has a sophisticated arsenal of disinformation on all fronts. Its main objectives are to turn public opinion upside down, interfere in foreign political circles, influence elections, discredit its opponents, and hide its own intentions and priorities.

In September 2021, the French Institute for Strategic Research at the École Militaire published a report on China’s influence operations, which warned: “For a long time, it could be said that China, unlike Russia, sought to be loved rather than feared; that it wanted to seduce, to project a positive image of itself in the world, to arouse admiration. Beijing has not given up on seduction … but, at the same time, Beijing is increasingly taking on the role of infiltrator and coercer: its influence operations have become considerably tougher in recent years, and its methods increasingly resemble those employed by Moscow.”

On Sept. 28, 2023, the U.S. government published a report in which it accused China of seeking to “reshape the global information landscape” through a vast network specialized in disinformation. “[China’s] global information manipulation is not simply a matter of public diplomacy—but a challenge to the integrity of the global information space.” This “manipulation” encompasses “propaganda, disinformation, and censorship.”

“Unchecked, [China’s] efforts will reshape the global information landscape, creating biases and gaps that could even lead nations to make decisions that subordinate their economic and security interests to Beijing’s,” according to the report.

According to the U.S. State Department, China spends billions of dollars every year on these “foreign information manipulation” operations. At the same time, Beijing suppresses critical information that runs counter to its rhetoric on politically sensitive subjects. The report goes on to state that China manipulates information by resorting to “digital authoritarianism,” exploiting international and UN organizations and controlling Chinese-language media abroad.

When Disinformation Becomes Military Doctrine

In some countries, policymakers may turn to their national history to justify the implementation of certain regulations on information. German politicians, for example, frequently refer to the Nazi past or that of the communist Stasi to justify the regulations they want to put in place. Yet these historical comparisons don’t always hold water. The Nazis, for example, did not come to power because they controlled the then-new technology of radio. Rather, once in power, they used the state control on radio stations that the previous Weimar governments had put in place—in the hope of saving democracy—to their own benefit. This decision by the Weimar governments had the perverse effect of enabling the Nazis to control radio much more quickly than with newspapers.

Disinformation is mainly orchestrated by government agencies. In the post-Soviet era, and with the advent of the information society, when the media and social networks became a central relay for the dissemination of fake news, disinformation evolved to become a fundamental tactic in the military doctrine of powerful countries. In the early 2000s, the European Union and NATO realized that the problem of Russian disinformation was such that they had to set up special units to process and debunk mass-produced false information.

The Methods and Processes of Disinformation

There are four main methods of spreading disinformation: selective censorship, manipulation of search indexes, hacking and dissemination of fraudulently obtained data, and amplification of disinformation through excessive sharing.

By way of example, disinformation activities involve the following processes:

The creation of fabricated characters or websites with networks of fake experts who disseminate supposedly reliable references.

The creation of “deep-fakes” and synthetic media through photos, videos, and audio clips that have been digitally manipulated or entirely fabricated to deceive the public. Today’s artificial intelligence (AI) tools can make synthetic content almost impossible to detect or distinguish from reality.

The development or amplification of conspiracy theories, which attempt to explain important events through the secret actions of powerful actors acting in the shadows. Conspiracy theories aim not only to influence people’s understanding of events, but also their behavior and worldview.

Astroturfing and inundation of information environments. At the root of disinformation campaigns are huge quantities of similar content, published from fabricated sources or accounts. This practice, called astroturfing, creates the impression of widespread support or opposition to a message while concealing its true origin. A similar tactic, inundation, involves spamming social media posts and comment sections with the aim of shaping a narrative or stifling opposing viewpoints. In recent years, the use of troll factories to spread misleading information on social networks has gained momentum.

Exploiting alternative social media platforms to reinforce beliefs in a disinformation narrative. Disinformation actors take advantage of platforms offering fewer protections for users and fewer options for detecting and removing inauthentic content and accounts.

Amplification of information gaps, when there isn’t enough credible information to answer a specific search. Misinformation leaders can exploit these gaps by generating their own content and feeding the search.

Manipulating unsuspecting protagonists. Disinformation facilitators target high-profile individuals and organizations to corroborate their stories. Targets are often not even aware that they are repeating a disinformation actor’s narrative, or that this narrative is intended to influence or manipulate public opinion.

Dissemination of targeted content: The instigators of disinformation produce customized influential content likely to resonate with a specific audience, based on its worldview, beliefs, and interests. It’s a long-term tactic that involves disseminating targeted content over time to build trust and credibility with the target audience, making it easier to manipulate them.

A Race Against Time to Protect the Younger Generation

In the early 2000s, most publications about the internet hailed its unprecedented potential for development. Only a few years later, commentators, analysts, and policymakers began to worry that the internet, and social media platforms in particular, posed new threats to democracy, global governance, and the integrity of information.

Since then, the world has become increasingly interconnected and interdependent, and the opportunities for misinformation have become almost limitless. With more than 5.5 billion internet users and more than 8.58 billion mobile subscriptions worldwide by 2022, compared to a global population of 7.95 billion at mid-year, the great paradox is that the rise of information technology has created a much more conducive, even thriving, environment for misinformation, and that the development of AI is leading to even worse and more rampant misinformation.

Some experts agree that while online misinformation and propaganda are widespread, it is difficult to determine the extent to which this misinformation has an impact on the public’s political attitudes and, consequently, on political outcomes. Other data have shown that disinformation campaigns rarely succeed in changing the policies of targeted states, but it would be irresponsible to believe that misinformation has little impact. If that were the case, major countries would have abandoned the practice long ago. The opposite is true. With the gradual increase in the foolishness of ruling elites and the rise of new technologies, the policy of destabilization through disinformation has a bright future ahead of it. The risks and stakes remain enormous, and the erosion of public trust in institutions and the media is deeply significant in this regard.

The fight against disinformation must go beyond simplistic solutions such as shutting down Facebook or X (formerly Twitter) accounts, publicly denouncing the actions of one’s adversary, or containing false information through technical means. And it is certainly not enough to focus on measures such as fact-checking or media education to help individuals master and consume information; the average person carries little weight in the face of government disinformation machines.

It would therefore be preferable to address the political and economic operating conditions of the structures that facilitate the spread of disinformation, such as large technology companies, the state actors involved, the media, and other information systems.

Of course, the human factor must remain at the center of leaders’ concerns in the face of growing state and media disinformation. The price of educating young people will always be less than the price of their ignorance.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/03/2024 – 17:40

 

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Houthis Warn Drone & Missile Attack Coverage Expanding To Mediterranean Sea

Houthis Warn Drone & Missile Attack Coverage Expanding To Mediterranean Sea

Yahya Saree, spokesperson for the Iranian-backed Houthi terror group, declared in a televised speech to supporters at a Friday rally in Al-Sabeen Square, Sana, that they intend to target Israel-linked ships in the eastern Mediterranean. The risk of conflict spilling over from the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden remains high. 

“We will target any ship heading to Israeli ports in the Mediterranean, in any area we are able to reach,” Saree said. 

Given that the eastern Mediterranean is 1,900 kilometers (1,180 miles) from Yemen, this may indicate that the conflict area is broadening, triggering a new escalation of the multi-month war. 

Fernando Ferreira, energy analyst at Rapidan Energy Group, noted:

“The Houthi nuisance continues, but they are at the limit of their ability to cause disruptions. The real risk of escalation comes from Israeli retaliation on IRGC officers/assets helping the Houthis.”

This comes as Houthis have attacked dozens of Western and Israel-linked commercial vessels and military ships across the southern Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait, Gulf of Aden, and even the Strait of Hormuz since last November. The group claims these maritime attacks are in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza. 

Saree warned if the Israel Defense Forces launched an attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are sheltering from the seven-month-long war. They would’ve no other choice but to impose sanctions on all ships of the companies that are supplying Israel and entering Israeli ports. 

What’s clear—and the West won’t like it—is that the Houthis appear to be expanding their attack coverage as numerous maritime chokepoints in the region are under constant threat. 

We pointed out Thursday that Operation Prosperity Guardian, the US-led maritime coalition launched by the Biden administration earlier this year, has been largely a failure

Maritime traffic data from Bloomberg shows not one single LNG vessel with destinations to Europe and the US was transiting the Red Sea for fear of being attacked by Houthi drones and missiles. 

Conflict spillover risks are mounting in the Middle East. Yet the war risk premium in Brent crude has been subsiding in recent weeks. 

 

 

 

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/03/2024 – 17:20

 

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Americans Continue To Name Inflation As Top Financial Problem: Gallup

Americans Continue To Name Inflation As Top Financial Problem: Gallup

By Jeffrey Jones at Gallup

For the third year in a row, the percentage of Americans naming inflation or the high cost of living as the most important financial problem facing their family has reached a new high.

The 41% naming the issue this year is up slightly from 35% a year ago and 32% in 2022. Before 2022, the highest percentage mentioning inflation was 18% in 2008. Inflation has been named by less than 10% in most other readings since the question was first asked in 2005.

The latest results are from Gallup’s annual Economy and Personal Finance poll, conducted April 1-22.

Gallup has asked Americans at least annually since 2005 to name, without prompting, the top financial problem facing their family. Inflation has topped the list for the past three years. The cost of owning or renting a home ranks second this year at 14%, a new high for that issue.

Other significant problems Americans identify include having too much debt (8%), healthcare costs (7%), lack of money or low wages (7%), and energy costs or gas prices (6%).

Over the past 19 years, healthcare costs and lack of money or low wages have frequently ranked near the top of the list, while the cost of energy or gas has done so at times of elevated gas prices, as in 2005, 2006 and 2008.

Inflation Named Most Often by All Subgroups

Inflation is named the most important financial problem by all key societal subgroups but garners higher mentions from certain age, income and political groups.

46% of older Americans (those aged 50 and older) mention inflation, in contrast with 36% of younger Americans (those under 50).
Inflation is a more top-of-mind concern for middle-income (46%) and upper-income Americans (41% of those with an annual household income of $100,000 or more) than for lower-income Americans (31% of those with a household income of less than $40,000).
56% of Republicans, compared with 39% of independents and 26% of Democrats, name the issue as the most important financial problem facing their family.

Younger and lower-income Americans may be less likely to name inflation than their counterparts because other immediate financial concerns are more pressing for them. For example, 21% of adults under age 50 say housing or rental costs are their top concern, compared with 8% of those aged 50 and older.

Lower-income Americans are more inclined than upper-income and middle-income Americans to say personal debt, healthcare costs, lack of money and job loss are the top concerns facing their family.

Retirement, Medical Emergencies Also Worrisome

A separate question in the survey asks Americans to say how much they worry about each of eight specific personal financial matters. Inflation is not one of those issues, but its influence is apparent in the heightened percentage who worry about not being able to maintain their standard of living. Fifty-five percent are very or moderately worried about maintaining their living standards, the third straight year a majority has done so after being below that level from 2017 through 2021.

Since the question was first asked in 2001, an average of 47% of U.S. adults, including a high of 58% in 2011, have worried about being able to maintain their standard of living.

Maintaining one’s standard of living ranks as one of the three economic matters Americans worry most about, along with not having enough for retirement and being unable to pay medical bills in the event of a serious illness or accident. The latter two issues have consistently ranked first or second each year in Gallup polling dating back to 2001.

Less than half of U.S. adults worry about the five other financial matters, including normal medical costs, normal monthly bills, housing costs, paying for their children’s college and making minimum payments on credit cards.

Compared with last year, there have been slight declines in the percentages worried about medical costs for a serious illness or accident (from 60% to 56%) and not having enough money for retirement (from 66% to 59%). Both issues are now closer to their historical averages after being slightly above them last year. For the other six financial matters, the percentages worried about them are essentially unchanged from a year ago.

As would be expected, those with a lower household income worry more than those with greater resources about nearly all of these financial matters. The one exception is affording college for a child, which shows no meaningful differences by income. Across the eight financial matters, an average of 60% of lower-income Americans express worry, compared with 47% of middle-income and 31% of upper-income Americans.

Majorities of lower-income adults worry about six of the eight financial matters, compared with three issues for middle-income adults and only one for those in upper-income households.

The greatest disparity in worry on any single issue between income groups is being able to pay one’s normal monthly bills, which concerns 67% of lower-income adults but only 21% of upper-income adults.

Ratings of Personal Finances Remain Subdued

Forty-six percent of Americans rate their personal finances as excellent or good, similar to what Gallup has measured the past two years but a worse evaluation than in 2017 through 2021. Meanwhile, 36% describe their finances as “only fair,” while 17% rate them as “poor.”

Americans’ ratings of their personal financial situation were worse than now between 2009 and 2012, as the U.S. was coming out of the Great Recession and unemployment was high. During those years, an average of 42% of Americans rated their personal finances positively.

All income groups remain less positive about their financial situation now compared with 2021. Currently, 72% of upper-income, 42% of middle-income and 25% of lower-income Americans rate their situation as excellent or good.

Another question in the survey finds 62% of Americans saying they have enough money to live comfortably, similar to the 64% recorded last year but down from 2022 (67%) and 2021 (72%). Gallup has only had one lower reading on this question since 2002 — 60% in 2012. The high point was 75% in 2002, the first year the question was asked.

Eighty-three percent of upper-income, 62% of middle-income and 37% of lower-income adults say they have enough to live comfortably, with similar declines in each group since 2021.

Americans Slightly More Optimistic Their Financial Situation Is Improving

There has been a slight increase in the percentage of Americans who say their financial situation is getting better — 43% say this, up from 37% in both 2022 and 2023. The current figure is still significantly below the 52% measured in 2021.

At the same time, 47% say their financial situation is getting worse, up by 17 percentage points since 2021.

A slim majority of upper-income Americans, 52%, believe their financial situation is improving, as do 43% of middle-income and 34% of lower-income Americans.

Bottom Line

Inflation continues to be an issue for Americans and is likely why less than half are positive about their financial situation. In addition to being named the most important financial problem facing their family, inflation also ranks as one of the domestic problems Americans worry most about. The issue trails only immigration, the government and the economy in general when Americans are asked to name the most important problem facing the country.

The U.S. inflation rate has declined significantly since its peak in 2022, but that has done little to alter Americans’ perceptions of their finances. This could reflect the cumulative effect of higher prices for the past few years and the fact that inflation has remained above the lower rates in the U.S. between 2012 and 2020. The latest government reports suggest inflation may be increasing again. That news persuaded the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts it was expected to make this year.

The issue also stands to be a key election issue, and renewed inflation would hamper President Joe Biden’s chances of reelection.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/03/2024 – 17:00

 

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Fed F**kery Turns $37BN ‘Unadjusted’ Bank Deposit OUTFLOW Into $126BN INFLOW

Fed F**kery Turns $37BN ‘Unadjusted’ Bank Deposit OUTFLOW Into $126BN INFLOW

Money market funds added $23.6BN in assets last week, pushing the total funds under management back above $6 Trillion – still well off the highs (as some tax-related withdrawals remain lost)…

Source: Bloomberg

Both retail and institutional funds saw inflows last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid all the talk of tapering, The Fed’s balance sheet plunged $40BN last week to its lowest since Jan 2021 (with QT continuing at around $35BN)

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s now-expired Bank Bailout fund (BTFP) saw a small decrease of just $1.375BN – inching closer to erasing all the arb-driven surge in demand for the facility, but leaving a whopping $12BN left out there filling holes in bank balance sheets…

Source: Bloomberg

And after last week’s almost unprecedented outflows, total bank deposits (seasonally-adjusted) rose by a huge $129BN to $17.58TN – that was the biggest rise in deposits since March 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

But, by the magical power of Federal Reserve ‘science’, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, total bank deposits dropped $24BN

Source: Bloomberg

Excluding foreign deposits, the picture was just as farcical with seasonally-adjusted domestic deposits rising $126BN (Large banks +$111BN – biggest since April 2020, Small banks +$15BN), while non-seasonally-adjusted domestic deposits tumbled $36.7BN (Large banks -$7.2BN, Small banks -$29.5BN)…

Source: Bloomberg

Don’t try to make sense of the fact that the so-called seasonally-adjusted levels are more noisy than the unadjusted… it’s PhD-based ‘science’ stuff, you’d never understand!

For the third week in a row, total loan volumes rose (by $5.8BN) with large bank volumes rising $4.2BN and small bank volumes rising $1.6BN

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, bank reserves at The Fed continues to contract, while US equity market cap remains dramatically decoupled…

Source: Bloomberg

Is Powell’s acquiescence to a bigger, sooner ‘QT taper’ (in the face of not-under-control inflation) to soften the blow when this crocodile mouth snaps shut.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/03/2024 – 16:40

 

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“The Whole Rotten Train Is Going Off The Rails”

“The Whole Rotten Train Is Going Off The Rails”

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

Nostalgia For The Mind

“Resentful childless harpies unconsciously longing for domination. Why else worship at the altar of Hamas? Why else would it be so overwhelmingly female?”

– Dr. Jordan Peterson

Wasn’t it cute how the youngsters who “occupied” Columbia U’s Hamilton Hall – and were busy smashing things up inside – demanded restaurant-grade meals sent in to avert “starvation and dehydration” amongst their dauntless ranks? You could imagine a colossal mommy breast with three hundred nipples descending from the sky over upper Manhattan to nourish them back to action. “Feed me. . . !”

It turns out, actually, that at least half the troops inside were not students at all, but rather semi-pro activists paid up to $7,000 each by George Soros’s Open Society Institute and other overtly insurrection-themed orgs, so you’d think that the troops could afford to load-up their ever-ready backpacks with Cliff bars and bottles of Smart Water. The order-in food and beverage gambit suggests we should understand that this is not so much politics as the acting out of a game — which is exactly what you might expect of people who spend more time on video screens than in the real world — in which something like a half-time intermission for refreshments is de rigueur.

Alas, they were not obliged with Doordash servings of Alitcha (“Ensemble of potatoes, carrots, collard greens, and cabbage baked in turmeric,” $22.30) from the nearby Massawa Ethiopian bistro, or Firecracker Chicken from Junzi Kitchen over on Broadway and 113th Street. And then, when the cops came to roust them out into the big buses now used as paddy-wagons for such events, the occupiers were heard to whine, “I have finals and I need to go home!” You’ve got to wonder how they’ll make out when “Joe Biden” drafts their ass to go fight the Russians out on the Ukrainian buzzard flats, about which the White House is just now sending out early signals.

It has been observed that a clear majority of the pro-Hamas activists are young women — which makes sense considering that they are the largest demographic evincing mental illness on America’s social landscape these days. Thus, they are marching in support of a sect that specializes in the rape, mutilation, and murder of young women like themselves, or at least treats them as chattels, hidden under black bag-like garments. The group psychology on display has more occult angles than any movie by the Wachowski sisters.

Among the marching Columbia students who are not paid outside activists, a few are apparently Jewish, such as spokesperson Johanna King-Slutzky (actual name, hat-tip Alex Berenson, who ID’d her), the winsome creature who complained about the lack of order-in meals at Hamilton Hall. Another observer on “X” who styles himself @J9_ATX identified the syndrome in play as “oppression envy,” among women seeking compensatory validation for occupying such a privileged niche on Planet Earth as a cushy Ivy League college — featuring international cuisine stations in the dining halls — while their third world sisters trudge through the burning sands of Al-Kufra carrying water-jugs on their heads as they dodge the odious “wind scorpions” of the region.

Higher Ed in the USA was already chugging down the suicide track before this spring’s eruption of pro-Hamas fury. The college loan racket (government-backed) had the perverse effect of pumping up tuition costs beyond what even many pretty well-off families could afford, while loading up young people with life-wrecking obligations (debt which “Joe Biden is now shifting onto the creditors, US tax-payers). Decades of DEI have filled the faculties with incompetents and assorted malcontents teaching fantasy curricula with no real-life value, and burdened the schools with cadres of overpaid diversity busybodies and thought-police. Diversity college presidents are very publicly failing to cope. The whole rotten train is going off the rails.

I’m not at all sanguine that the society we are becoming will need this vast infrastructure for babysitting young adults who could otherwise make themselves useful and productive on-the-ground in lines of work that actually keep civilized life going. This is too self-evident now to belabor, though there is an awful lot of confusion about what kind of society we might become.

I doubt that it is to be the utopia of robots, A-I, and non-stop sexual titillation that the techno-narcissists dream of. Rather, it will be a society struggling to keep too much complex stuff running with insufficient energy resources and capital — that is, a society falling apart, losing knowledge, technical know-how, comfort, and convenience while having a hard time feeding itself.

The campus Hamas zealots ironically (and tragically) represent exactly the sort of rough medievalism that the citizens of Western Civ countries would be chary of sliding into. You’d have to sadly conclude that many young people really can’t take much more Modernity, and are now pretty avid to opt out of it, even as they gaze into the magic, glowing pixels of their iPhone screens.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/03/2024 – 16:20

 

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Big Taper, Bad Data, & Buyback Bonanza Sparks Buying Frenzy In Bonds & Stocks

Big Taper, Bad Data, & Buyback Bonanza Sparks Buying Frenzy In Bonds & Stocks

The markets took on a Dickensian dimension this week as while “it was the worst of times (for economic data), it was the best of times (for stocks)”…

The US Macro Surprise Index continued its serial disappointment plunge into the red – the weakest since Feb 2023 (not helped at all by today’s payrolls miss)…

Source: Bloomberg

With growth data plunging while inflation data soared…

Source: Bloomberg

Bad news was good news though as the market only had eyes for Powell’s big taper and the buyback bonanza (from AAPL and the rest), and today’s NFP Goldilocks results (175k vs. 240k expected) as wage softness helps to ease inflation fears.

Small Caps leading the bunch amid a big short-squeeze and S&P lagging (but all green on the week)…

All the majors rallied up to their 50DMAs but were unable to breakout…

Nasdaq performed well with MAG7 stocks wildly choppy, but overall pushing back up towards record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Most Shorted’ stocks suffered the biggest squeeze in two months (and biggest two-week squeeze since Jan 2023)…

Source: Bloomberg

Of particular note was Utes outperforming (while energy lagged) as the ‘Next AI Trade’ goes mainstream. Financials were also red on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were also bid all week with yields down 12-20bps as the short-end outperformed…

Source: Bloomberg

And 2Y yields at 5.00% were thoroughly rejected as yields plunged today back below pre-CPI spike levels..

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dropped this week, erasing almost all of the post-CPI gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold prices were lower on the week (second week in a row), despite the weak dollar and ‘easing’ by The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a decent bounce back today, bitcoin was down on the week, testing back up to $62,000…

Source: Bloomberg

…after an ugly week of aggregate net outflows from BTC ETFs…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices plunged this week – down all five days for the worst in three months – back to near two-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, rate-cut expectations have surged this week with 2024 now pricing in two full cuts and 2025 three more cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this what Powell wanted? To ease financial conditions again!?

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/03/2024 – 16:00

 

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Russian Troops Enter Air Base Hosting US Soldiers In Post-Coup Niger

Russian Troops Enter Air Base Hosting US Soldiers In Post-Coup Niger

US diplomats and the Pentagon have been in retreat from the West African nation of Niger, while also scrambling to maintain some influence there, following the junta seizing power in a coup in July 2023. Niger’s military toppled the US-friendly government of President Mohamed Bazoum, who was taken hostage.

Among the first orders of the junta was to tell US troops in the country to pack up their stuff and get out. The US is commonly estimated to have had 1,100 troops in the country. At the same time the junta is displaying its warmer relations with Russia and its forces, declaring an alliance with ‘anti-imperialist’ nations. French troops have already exited the country.

On Friday there are widespread reports that Russian troops have actually entered American military bases, with US troops in the process exiting, but some still present. This is said to already be happening at Air Base 101 in Niamey, the capital city.

Illustrative military file image, Getty Images.

Amazingly, there’s some degree of logistical overlap as the Russians pour in and Pentagon personnel are being pressured out

A senior U.S. defense official told Reuters that the Russian forces are not mingling with the American troops at the base, but were instead using a separate hangar.

The official described the situation as being “not great” but “manageable” in the short-term. Sources similarly told CNN that the Russians and Americans are not operating in the same part of the base, but one said “it is not that big of an area.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has sought to downplay the bizarre situation in statements issued from Hawaii.

The Russians are in a separate compound and don’t have access to U.S. forces or access to our equipment,” Austin said. “I’m always focused on the safety and protection of our troops… But right now, I don’t see a significant issue here in terms of our force protection.”

Perhaps the rival troops will become drinking buddies and seek to heal the ‘new Cold War 2.0’?… 

Amid the pressure from the ruling Junta, and failed efforts to reverse course, the Pentagon has now committed to leaving Niger, but has not issued a timeline on a full withdrawal.

The Russians and heavy equipment, which included at least one air defense battery, began arriving in Niger in greater numbers starting last month, state media reported at the time. There’s a likelihood that private military firm Wagner is also present in the country.

Starting last year Washington has moved to restrict what military aid it can give to the country. In short, Washington is on the way out and Moscow is moving in. There are fears this could be happening in other parts of Africa as well, impacting US AFRICOM’s operations.

🇷🇺🇳🇪🇲🇱🇧🇫 In the capital of Niger the flags of Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Russia are flying.

This was done to celebrate the ties of friendship and cooperation that bind Niger with its closest allies.

Two Majors pic.twitter.com/A55vxMWHWE

— dana (@dana916) May 3, 2024

Since the ouster of President Bazoum by military generals, the Biden administration has been scrambling to find influence also as junta has cemented with two neighboring countries also ‘unfriendly’ to the West: Mali and Burkina Faso, also led by juntas. Among the first major acts that Niger’s post-coup government did was to expel France’s some 1,500 troops – all of which finally left in December.

American officials have been especially worried about the major drone base only recently built at a cost of $110 million called Air Base 201, which was crucial for Pentagon drone surveillance operations over the region. Likely it will now have to be shuttered, but without doubt US diplomats are busy begging Niger’s post-coup military to allow it to remain.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/03/2024 – 15:45

 

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