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“The Jobs Market Is Weakening, Inflation Has Picked Up And Growth Unexpectedly Slowed”

“The Jobs Market Is Weakening, Inflation Has Picked Up And Growth Unexpectedly Slowed”

By Rabobank

The Bank of England left the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% yesterday, but the clear signal from the record of votes, and Governor Bailey, is that cuts aren’t far away. This time around the vote split 7-2 in favour of holding (previously 8-1), with arch-dove Dhingra being joined by former hawk Ramsden in plumping for a cut.

The BOE’s Monetary Policy Report lowered inflation forecasts, but the policy Summary warned on uncertainties around the persistence of high services inflation and the spotty ONS labour market data. Governor Bailey commented that a cut in June is “neither ruled out nor a fait accompli”, while our own BOE watcher Stefan Koopman favors an August cut, owing to sticky services inflation and uncertainties around the impact of the recent 9.8% minimum wage decision.

So, the Bank of England is now in a similar place to the ECB, and a similar place to where the Fed was earlier in the year: cuts are coming, we just need to see some more data to be assured on the timing. In spending so much time talking about cutting rates before actually cutting them, central bankers are doing their best Abe Lincoln impersonation: “give me six hours to chop down a tree, and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.

A dovish Bank of England follows Sweden’s Rijksbank delivering a 25bps cut earlier in the week (the first in 16 years) and a 25bps cut from the Brazilian central bank yesterday (though four Board members wanted to cut by 50). The RBA doved-it-up on Tuesday by keeping the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% and maintaining their neutral bias – despite a big upside surprise in inflation in Q1 and half-percentage point upward revisions to their inflation forecasts for the remainder of this year. We think the RBA’s ‘hold and hope’ strategy will ultimately get waylaid by economic reality and that they will end up hiking twice more this year, albeit reluctantly.

Banxico might have been the closest thing to a hawkish central bank this week. They opted to pause the cutting cycle that was initiated in March, while revising inflation forecasts substantially higher and warning of persistence in inflationary shocks. USDMXN dropped below 16.80 following the meeting despite small gains in the DXY index. Nevertheless, Rabobank’s Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz are expecting Banxico’s policy rate to continue falling later in the year, ultimately hitting 10% by Christmas.

Over in the United States we saw a continuation of the theme established by a soft non-farm payrolls report last Friday that the US jobs market may be beginning to crack. Initial jobless claims this week printed at 231,000, well up on the expected 212,000 and last week’s upwardly-revised 209,000. This follows a recent run of soft data, including the lacklustre payrolls report, below expectations JOLTS job openings, and ISM reports showing employment contracting for both the manufacturing and services sectors.

While the labor market is starting to look creaky, the prices paid components of those ISM reports pumped higher. This chimes nicely with a strong run of PCE and CPI data, which we might see continued next week when we get the April PPI and CPI reports for the United States. Could another upside surprise be on the cards there? [ZH: a downside surprise is far more likely]

So, the jobs market looks to be weakening, inflation has picked up and growth unexpectedly slowed to just 1.6% annualized in Q1 figures reported the week before last. Nevertheless, Jay Powell isn’t bothered. He recently told reporters that he couldn’t see the ‘stag’ or the ‘flation’ in the economy at the moment.

The BOE and the ECB might be channelling one former President in softening us up for rate cuts, but in light of the recent run of data it stretches credulity to suggest that Powell is channelling another: “Father, I cannot tell a lie…”

While the economic picture appears to be softening in North America, in Europe things seemed to turn for the better this week. PMIs indicated a faster rate of expansion for Spain, France and Germany, and Italian industry also remains in expansion (albeit at a slightly reduced rate). German factory orders remained dreadful, but both imports and exports showed unexpected strength. French wage growth accelerated and German industrial production was less bad than feared. All of this follows on from stronger than expected Q1 growth figures for the Eurozone last week.

Europe might be looking better, but it isn’t time to break out the bunting just yet. Growth is still weak, and it would be a brave call to suggest that inflation has been routed – even if it may be in retreat at the moment. There’s also plenty of potential for further shocks. Just this morning we saw news that Joe Biden plans to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs and other strategic sectors as early as next week. Such moves raise the risk of China dumping those products into other markets (like Europe), which might prompt action from the Europeans to protect already fragile German industry.

There’s also the issue of the Israel-Hamas (/Hezbollah/Iran) war bubbling away in the background. Brent crude has stabilised around $83-84/bbl after the recent tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran momentarily petered-out, but tensions remain high and the war is moving into a new phase that introduces new potential catalysts for regional potshots.

Israel this week cut off the crossing from Rafah into Egypt as a precursor to a ground offensive. Hamas tried to accept a ceasefire deal that Israel hadn’t offered. Joe Biden wound-back long running bipartisan support of Israel by threatening to halt shipments of offensive weapons if Israel pushes into Rafah. That latter development was almost certainly electorally-driven, with the campus youth vote, and the large Muslim population in Michigan of crucial importance to Biden’s chances of re-election. Netanyahu remains undeterred, declaring that “if we must, we shall fight with our fingernails.”

So, all in all, it was another week where there were plenty of problems that we can point to, but both stocks and bonds went higher (at least as of time of writing). Perhaps there is some truth to an observation a trader once made to me: “bears sound smart, but bulls make money

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/10/2024 – 18:05

 

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Hedge Funds That Sold In May Might Now Push Stocks To New Highs

Hedge Funds That Sold In May Might Now Push Stocks To New Highs

Authored by Simon White. Bloomberg macro strategist,

Hedge funds seem to have taken the old adage about selling in May to heart. From being very long for most of this year, aggregate positioning now looks to have gone short – right as the stock market bounces. Hedge funds that are offside might now chase the market higher through the rest of the month.

We can estimate how hedge funds are positioned in stocks by looking at the beta of hedge-fund indices (in this case HFR’s Macro/CTA index) to the S&P 500. As the chart below shows, it looks like funds are now short the stock market in the aggregate.

We can use the DBi Managed Futures ETF to get a flavor of what CTAs have been doing. As the table below shows, this ETF came out of the S&P in April and started adding to the MSCI EAFE, with its overall developed-market equity position trending lower. As of last week, it is long futures in MSCI EAFE, MSCI EM, oil and gold.

Hedge funds (CTAs and macro funds) now having a short exposure to stocks comes at a time when the good side (for long-only investors at least) of a positive stock-bond correlation is in play – stocks and bonds rising together, as yields trend lower in response to recent weaker economic data. The bear steepening in the yield curve that is typically pernicious for risk assets has given away to a more asset-friendlier bull flattening for now.

With US stocks less than a percent off their all-time highs, there’s a good chance funds who now find themselves offside help push the stock market to a new peak. This would match the previous patterns of a change of stock leadership marking the near-end of a correction.

Nonetheless, even though a new high would likely see some follow-through buying, the bull trend is not going to be as plain sailing as it was.

Liquidity conditions are less conducive to rising risk assets. Reserves and the reverse repo facility (RRP) continue to trend lower. Tapering of quantitative tightening will take some of the edge off, but reserve liquidity will be less buoyant. Furthermore, the government’s interest bill will incrementally eat more reserves and reserve velocity.

Selling in May maybe doesn’t look like a good idea now, but by St Leger’s Day in September, hedge funds who get back in the market might find they have experienced a lot of volatility without a whole lot of upside to compensate.
 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/10/2024 – 17:15

 

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They Went Woke: Oscars Facing Liquidity Crisis, Launch $500 Million Fundraising Drive As Viewers Flee

They Went Woke: Oscars Facing Liquidity Crisis, Launch $500 Million Fundraising Drive As Viewers Flee

Given that Ricky Gervais has been the only good thing about the Oscars in years, if not decades…

the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences has launched a $500 million fundraising initiative in an effort to offset the Oscars dramatic drop in viewership – which went from nearly 44 million in 2014, to just 19.5 million in the latest ceremony, according to Statista.

Bill Kramer, the Academy’s Chief Executive, revealed in an interview with the Financial Times that the organization has already raised about $100 million, with contributions from high-profile donors like billionaire Leonard Blavatnik. The campaign is further bolstered by sponsorship agreements with renowned luxury brands, including the Dorchester Collection.

The timing of this fundraising drive is crucial as the Academy’s current broadcasting agreement with ABC, a Walt Disney-owned network, is set to expire in 2028, coinciding with the 100th anniversary of the Oscars. Negotiations for renewal are expected to commence shortly, with Kramer describing the existing deal as “very healthy” and lauding the partnership with Disney as “amazing.” However, the shift towards streaming and the upheavals in the television and film industry have prompted the Academy to pursue what Kramer calls a “revenue diversification campaign.”

“No healthy company or organization should rely on one source of support to a degree that could cause concern if that support decreases,” he told the outlet.

The move comes amid broader financial struggles within the non-profit arts sector. Notable institutions like the Metropolitan Opera in New York have had to draw emergency funds from endowments due to cash shortfalls, and the Sundance Film Festival has faced significant challenges recovering post-Covid-19 disruptions.

Going forward, the Academy is trying to position itself to appeal to a broader, more international donor base, reflecting a shift in its audience and membership demographics. Approximately 30 percent of its membership now resides outside the U.S., a significant increase from a decade ago.

As the Academy seeks to broaden its appeal and financial stability, the success of this global fundraising campaign could be pivotal. With the film industry and its audiences undergoing radical transformations, these efforts might not only reshape the Academy’s financial landscape but also its cultural footprint on a global scale – with the campaign set to be launched in Rome on Friday.

Good luck. As Gervais put it best in 2020:

No one cares about movies anymore. No one goes to cinema, no one really watches network TV. Everyone is watching Netflix. This show should just be me coming out, going, “Well done Netflix. You win everything. Good night.” But no, we got to drag it out for three hours…

…Seriously, most films are awful. Lazy. Remakes, sequels. I’ve heard a rumor there might be a sequel to Sophie’s Choice. I mean, that would just be Meryl just going, “Well, it’s gotta be this one then.” All the best actors have jumped to Netflix, HBO. And the actors who just do Hollywood movies now do fantasy-adventure nonsense. They wear masks and capes and really tight costumes. Their job isn’t acting anymore. It’s going to the gym twice a day and taking steroids, really. Have we got an award for most ripped junky? No point, we’d know who’d win that.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/10/2024 – 16:50

 

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Carnival Rides

Carnival Rides

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“These agencies are not trusted because they are not trustworthy.” — El Gato Malo on “X”

The miasma of anxiety befogging so many brains in our troubled land begins to lift as every narrative served up by the US fascist intel blob goes annoyingly stale and impotent. The worst media meme — that a vicious officialdom is “defending our democracy” — gets laughed out of the room now when repeated incessantly by such shills as Jen Psaki and Lawrence O’Donnell of MSNBC. Everybody understands they want to “defend our democracy” by cancelling your freedom of speech, pounding you into bankruptcy, and stealing whatever remains of your stuff.

Likewise, everything else: that our doings in Ukraine are a “fight for freedom,” that “white supremacy” lurks just out of sight getting ready to pounce on the “marginized” (who are actually running things, and doing it very badly), that “Joe Biden” turned around the economy, that “voting rights” equals non-citizens getting to vote, that election fraud is a “big lie” (and that the J-6 riot over it was an “insurrection”), and that the Covid vaccines were “safe and effective.”

None of these dishonest persuasions work anymore, and all of the persuasion machinery stands in plain sight like so many nauseating carnival rides. One by one, the rides are flying apart, scattering debris and body parts of the poor slobs who were on the rides all over the fairgrounds. And so, the fear rises in the ones running the carnival. The county sheriff stands by looking to round up the sleazeball carnies with their missing teeth and needle tracks inside their elbows. Before long, they will find themselves in the courtroom. . . .

The vicious officialdom put up the carnival and all of its rides to distract the public from the crimes they committed during and after the 2016 election. Donald Trump’s idle talk about putting Hillary Clinton in jail struck nerves throughout the federal bureaucracy, the halls of Congress, and the strongholds of the Clintons and the Obamas.

The Clintons had literally bought the Democratic Party apparatus under the DNC, using the money they grifted into the Clinton foundation from such operations as the Uranium One deal, the Skolkovo war-tech transfer deal, and the Haiti earthquake relief effort. They were sure that ownership of the DNC guaranteed the election for Hillary. It did guarantee that she would overcome Bernie Sanders’ primary election victories and the delegates that came with them, even after Julian Assange’s Wikileaks release informed the world just how the Clintons bought and paid for the DNC and the whole Philadelphia convention. Call this the birth of the “misinformation” cult, in which everything true was converted into a “big lie.”

The problem was, Hillary lost that election. What a surprise! Buying the convention was not enough, it turned out. Those “deplorables” did the unthinkable: cast enough of their stinky votes in just the right rust belt precincts to elect the Golden Golem of Greatness, who was as surprised as anybody, and really unprepared to cobble together an actual governing administration — in the process of which, Donald J. Trump was completely buffaloed by the outgoing Obama gang. They plotted by the lights of the White House Christmas tree to go after the interloper with all they had, starting with the surgical removal of a most dangerous appointee, National Security Advisor Mike Flynn, who knew all the secrets. . . and from there onto four years of Russia, Russia, Russia. . . .

It’s hardly a mystery anymore how “Joe Biden” got elected. It’s perfectly obvious despite the “big lie” narrative that the 2020 election was stoked with a veritable orgy of ballot fraud and direct election interference by agency rogues, especially the ones leaning hard on Facebook, Twitter, and Google to manipulate what the public actually saw. Don’t believe your lying eyes they told the nation. What is a mystery is why they chose “Joe Biden” to front for the cabal around Barack Obama actually running the show. Never before in US history was there a president who left such a slime trail of bribery and corruption. Just as they had spent all their energy the previous four years in undermining Mr. Trump, they had to spend the next four years propping up and defending “Joe Biden,” and then desperately trying to save their own asses from a Trump return. Meanwhile, they set out on their mission to wreck the country sufficient to clear the way for establishing a transhuman public-private utopia of crypto-Marxian “equity” (theft of property).

All of this political legerdemain summoned up the miasma of anxiety that beclouded the people of this sore-beset republic, and the nearly final blow to them was the Covid-19 operation, set in motion with the phony PCR test, that has now left a substantial number of citizens, vaccine-injured, disabled, and on-course for an early death — a pretty grotesque affront to our democracy. The victims are beginning to realize it.

The battery of Trump trials and lawsuits meant to put him totally out of business are now all simultaneously collapsing. Special Counsel Jack Smith is left doing Chinese fire drills around his office Keurig coffee machine. When the prank-fest in Judge Juan Merchan’s courtroom concludes, whether the jury sees the show for the farce that it is, or not, the Golden Golem of Greatness will be at large again among the voters. If he is clever enough to pick a capable veep that represents something like “assassination insurance” — say, Vivek, Tulsi Gabbard, or JD Vance — then the Obama cabal and the blob that has been protecting it will be swept out of power and into a dragnet of a kind of law actually associated with the word justice.

They are running out of ways to avoid it. All they’ve got left are the direst resorts: war, crashing the economy, another bio-weapon op against their own people, or an outright coup d’état. And even those probably won’t work.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/10/2024 – 16:25

 

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Stocks End Week On Muted Note As Stagflation Fears Mount  

Stocks End Week On Muted Note As Stagflation Fears Mount  

Late Friday afternoon, US main equity indexes showed little change, with the S&P 500 on track for a 2% weekly gain after investors digested new concerns about a slowing economy and elevated inflation, rekindling fears of stagflation.

During the session, Treasury yields increased due to persistent inflationary pressures, complicating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s plan to cut interest rates later this year. Although most of the earnings season has concluded (prepare for Nvidia ER later this month), the continued strength from Corporate America remains a positive highlight. However, companies are increasingly signaling that low-income consumers are starting to crack. 

Let’s begin with the biggest macro news in the session: This morning’s consumer confidence survey from the University of Michigan pointed to an implosion of Bidenomics. The report was a total disaster. The index “unexpectedly” plunged from 77.2 to 67.4, a 9.8-point drop, the biggest since August 2021. 

… and was only a 7-sigma miss to expectations of a 76.2 print…

… but it was the biggest miss on record!

The consumer confidence report was released at 10:00 AM ET. Immediately afterward, US equity indexes gave up most of the gains and fell, moving sideways in afternoon trading. 

Among the US main equity indexes, the Russel 2000 was the biggest loser in the session. This is mainly because of economic weakness. 

There was little notable sector performance across the S&P500 besides tech, which was marginally higher, and energy, down half a percent. 

NYSE TICK showed selling pressure after 10:00 AM and persisted into early afternoon. 

Most shorted stocks are running out of steam to end the week. 

Treasury yields extended gains after the report as stubborn inflationary pressures reminded traders of the higher-for-longer theme. 2-year yields reached weekly highs while Fed-dated OIS adjusted to price out rate cut expectations for this year. 

The Treasury 10-year Yield climbed above 4.5%. 

Today’s stagflationary warning is a new challenge to the outlook of the Fed’s interest rate cutting cycle. Fed swaps for ’24 immediately sank from 1.77 cuts to about 1.63 cuts by late afternoon. Nasdaq futures tracked lower on fewer rate cuts. 

“Our economists continue to forecast two rate cuts from the Fed this year beginning with the July meeting. And yields on 10-year Treasuries have come off recent highs following last week’s soft Payrolls report,” Goldman’s Chris Hussey wrote in a note this afternoon. 

Citi’s US Economic Suprise Index slides to the lowest since January 2023. 

Whoops. 

Entire dovish move from huge jobs report miss has been reversed on catastrophic UMich print (which signals even more economic weakness) pic.twitter.com/xbjLTsa24e

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 10, 2024

What to expect next week. 

Which will reverse again next week when CPI is a huge miss https://t.co/8rjS34FLYL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 10, 2024

Bitcoin and Ethereum were clubbed like a baby seal after the report, sending the dollar soaring in a more hawkish environment. 

Meanwhile, JPM gets bullish on ETH. 

JPMorgan now just as bullish on ethereum as Larry Fink. Good luck @GaryGensler pic.twitter.com/tdQFKUvsKI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 10, 2024

In commodities, WTI was whacked from the near $80bbl handle, tumbling down to a low $78 after the report. Gold and silver slid on a strong dollar. 

Looking ahead, next week will be packed with macro data points, including the release of CPI, PPI, retail sales, and industrial production in the US. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/10/2024 – 16:01

 

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Apple Apologizes For ‘Soul Crushing’ iPad Ad

Apple Apologizes For ‘Soul Crushing’ iPad Ad

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Apple has issued an apology following massive backlash to an ad for the new iPad Pro that crushes physical creative tools in an industrial press.

As we highlighted, the commercial shows the device obliterating items such as musical instruments, paint and cameras, then unveiling an iPad as the replacement for everything creative.

Following an overwhelmingly negative response from viewers who branded the ad ‘soul crushing’, Apple issued a statement.

“Our goal is to always celebrate the myriad of ways users express themselves and bring their ideas to life through iPad,’ the company claimed, going on to admit “We missed the mark with this video, and we’re sorry.”

‘We missed the mark with this video, and we’re sorry,’ the tech giant said of a new ad involving a hydraulic press, which had drawn heavy backlash https://t.co/s0eNXW565X pic.twitter.com/mwhrDvOJ8L

— Financial Times (@FT) May 10, 2024

According to reports, there were plans to broadcast the ad on terrestrial television, but they have now been scrapped.

The ad is still live on Apple’s YouTube channel.

It’s encouraging to see that people do not want dystopian tech crushing all aspects of humanity.

British filmmaker Asif Kapadia was taken aback, like many others, as to how honest the ad was in its admission that tech companies are crushing creativity.

Like iPads but don’t know why anyone thought this ad was a good idea
It is the most honest metaphor for what tech companies do to the arts, to artists musicians, creators, writers, filmmakers: squeeze them, use them, not pay well, take everything then say it’s all created by them https://t.co/ZgwXO53UZ0

— asifkapadia (@asifkapadia) May 8, 2024

James Bore, tech expert at consultancy Bores Group, told the Daily Mail that the ad “shows how disconnected they are from actual creative efforts.”

“I think they may have alienated a not-insignificant part of their target market by thinking like technologists rather than creatives,” Bores continued, adding “There were much better ways to create the same message, without destroying things that their customers will feel sentimental about for a publicity stunt.”

“Unless of course they were going deliberately for the controversy sells angle, which I can’t rule out entirely,” Bores further noted.

Someone “fixed” the Apple ad by reversing it, thereby effectively crushing the iPad and having the creative objects appearing in its place.

Hey @Apple, @rezawrecktion elegantly fixed your ad for you — sound on 🔊 & enjoy 😊 pic.twitter.com/A9nImoVPx4

— Art Jonak (@ArtJonak) May 8, 2024

Others pointed out that the ultimate irony is that the concept wasn’t even an original creation, and was done before by LG in 2008:

LG phone ad from 2008 (BBH London) pic.twitter.com/cWIDZx1d4a

— Andy Allen (@asallen) May 9, 2024

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Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/10/2024 – 15:05

 

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Russia Launches Surprise Offensive In Kharkiv, Aims To Extend Border 10km Deep Into Ukraine

Russia Launches Surprise Offensive In Kharkiv, Aims To Extend Border 10km Deep Into Ukraine

Following several more cross-border attacks from Ukraine, including direct drone hits on Russian oil facilities over the past 48 hours, Russian forces have launched a surprise ground offensive which seeks to break through front lines in the northeastern Kharkiv border region on Friday.

“Russia launched a new wave of counteroffensive actions… Ukraine met them there with our troops, brigades, and artillery,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed of the new action in a briefing. “Now there is a fierce battle underway.”

Via Reuters

Civilians have also been witnessed fleeing border areas in droves as heavy fighting ensues. Already Moscow forces have penetrated at least 1 kilometer deep in what’s being described as an effort to create a larger ‘buffer zone’ in order to help prevent Ukrainian attacks from reaching Russian territory.

Ukraine’s defense ministry said that the new offensive began at 5am local time with armored vehicles leading the charge of infantry troops in this major effort to effectively push the border itself deeper into Ukraine territory.

Kharkiv region on fire amid a major surprise Russian offensive:

Ukrainian Kharkiv after Russia’s attack last night. Thank you Scholz and the SPD for not escalating. pic.twitter.com/Hd7ZN2TC1D

— Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M (@sumlenny) May 10, 2024

But Ukraine defense officials have claimed, “As of now, these attacks have been repulsed; battles of varying intensity continue.”

The AFP has written, “If Moscow’s advances are confirmed, it would represent the Russian military’s largest land operation in the region since sending thousands of troops across the border in February 2022.”

Below: the center of Vovchansk after heavy fighting…

The center of Vovchansk after the attack by russian war criminals. Today, russian troops attempted to break through Ukrainian defense lines in Kharkiv oblast. The most intense fighting was around Vovchansk where russian aviation dropped bombs. pic.twitter.com/ZDTSUjkpYE

— Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇦 (@rshereme) May 10, 2024

Heavy shelling is also taking place, especially in the vicinity of Vovchansk, which is a border town of a few thousand people but which had a pre-war population of 17,000. According to further unfolding details:

Kharkiv region’s governor said the length of the border and the settlements in it were a “grey zone” and confirmed active fighting taking place.

A senior Ukrainian military source who declined to be named said Russian forces had pushed 1 km (0.6 mile) inside the Ukrainian border near Vovchansk.

The source said Russian forces were aiming to push Ukrainian troops as far back as 10 km inside Ukraine as part of an effort to create a buffer zone, but that Kyiv’s troops were trying to hold them back.

Kharkiv, which is Ukraine’s second-largest city and sits very close to the border, has been attacked heavily by airstrikes for months, and has had its energy infrastructure severely downgraded in the attacks.

Via BBC

Ukraine regional governor Oleg Synegubov described that “Enemy shelling from various types of weapons has been intensifying in Kharkiv region in the northern area for the last day.” He further wrote on Telegram while confirming at least two civilians killed, “In Kharkiv region, evacuation routes have been developed since 2022, and a system of humanitarian aid distribution, temporary resettlement.”

The Russian side is also urging civilians to seek immediate safety amid the heavy border fighting. “There is fighting on several parts of the line of contact, including in the border areas of Kharkiv region,” Vitaliy Ganchev, a Russian officials overseeing the Kharkiv region stated on Telegram. “In this regard, I ask residents living in these areas to be careful and not to leave shelters without an urgent need.”

Bashkortostan, Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat oil refinery. May 9, 2024. pic.twitter.com/iZlrgRe1A6

— Russia on fire (@russiasonfire) May 10, 2024

This week at least eight Russian civilians have died in the Belgorod region after Ukraine forces sent more drones across the border. Also, Ukrainian drone slammed into an oil refinery in central Russia’s Kaluga region south of Moscow overnight.

And the day prior, a drone struck an oil refinery in Russia’s republic of Bashkortostan, which is a first of the conflict. It reportedly involved a long-range, slow moving drone flying at a low altitude. This has raised questions of the current state of Russia’s anti-air defenses.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/10/2024 – 14:40

 

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FBI Officials Told To ‘Stand Down’ The Day Before Jan. 6: Report

FBI Officials Told To ‘Stand Down’ The Day Before Jan. 6: Report

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

Jan. 6, 2021. PHOTO: Wikipedia

The FBI released on Tuesday a new batch of records about its investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol Hill uprising—raising more questions about the event in the process.

Among the 107 pages of new records is a series of emails with the subject line, “Stand down. See below.” The emails are heavily redacted, and the individuals in the email thread are not identified. Only one person’s title was revealed: a supervisory intelligence analyst for the FBI’s DC office. Even the date and times of the emails are redacted, with the exception of one that was sent at 5:46 p.m. on Jan. 5, 2021.

Story herehttps://t.co/rxAbjYzbC0

— Ken Silva (@JD_Cashless) May 8, 2024

The limited information in the emails suggests that law enforcement was investigating a group of people who travelled to Washington DC on Jan. 5.

We are standing down in [REDACTED]. The predicated subjects have been [REDACTED]. [REDACTED] is being informed. The only people from the group who are continuing to DC are non-subjects, who are not carrying weapons, and appear to be solely involved in legal First Amendment protesting,” one email from the thread stated.

In response to that email, someone else said, “Thank you all for quickly stepping up today!

Law enforcement did have to deal with some armed individuals on Jan. 5, 2021, as noted by Jan. 6 defendant William Pope.

First up is Thomas Gronek from North Carolina who was on the Hippies for Trump bus that got pulled over on January 5. Gronek brought a pink Ruger 10/22 rifle, with 275 rounds of .22 ammo, and a black 9mm Springfield handgun with 31 rounds of ammo. Gronek was detained until… pic.twitter.com/dRRVgKShVF

— 🇺🇸 (@FreeStateWill) April 23, 2024

For instance, the DC Metropolitan Police Department reportedly stopped a “Hippies for Trump” bus on Jan. 5, arresting a protestor during that stop. Officers said they found a pistol, a rifle, more than 300 rounds of ammunition and fireworks.

Another would-be protestor, Colorado man Harlan Boen, was reportedly arrested on Jan. 5 for carrying a pistol at Freedom Plaza.

The batch of FBI emails released Tuesday also includes discussions between Joint Terrorism Task Force, or JTTF, members on Jan. 5, 2021, forewarning possible violence.

“Hi all, [REDACTED] asked earlier about [REDACTED] subjects coming to the [National Capitol Region] this week who have been [REDACTED]. Per [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] (cc’d), below is information regarding [REDACTED] subjects travelling to the NCR [REDACTED].”

Yet another heavily redacted email from Jan. 4, 2021, shows that the JTTF treating the upcoming Stop the Steal rally as a “usual” event.

“Usual early [warning order] for something brewing. There are a few people posting intent to come down to DC to do harm on the 6th. [REDACTED] are working in which [REDACTED]. [REDACTED] … and there are likely to be others … That is all I have. You should at least be [REDACTED] from here on out,” the Jan. 4 email said.

The FBI has declined to comment on its Jan. 6 investigation in response to emails from Headline USA.

Ken Silva is a staff writer at Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/jd_cashless.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/10/2024 – 14:15

 

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SEC Doesn’t Want Ethereum To Transform Banking Landscape, Says Joseph Lubin

SEC Doesn’t Want Ethereum To Transform Banking Landscape, Says Joseph Lubin

By Gareth Jenkinson of CoinTelegraph

Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin believes the United States Securities and Exchange Commission is intentionally hindering innovation, which threatens the country’s existing financial landscape.

Speaking at FT Live’s Crypto and Digital Asset summit in London, Lubin unpacked Consensys’s decision to sue the SEC after receiving a Wells notice from the U.S. securities regulator.

“The SEC appears to have reclassified Ether as a security without telling anybody that that’s the case. They are going about a strategic series of enforcement actions rather than open discourse and clear rulemaking,” Lubin said.

The CEO of Consensys — which developed the MetaMask wallet — said the enforcement actions intend to create fear, uncertainty and doubt for the cryptocurrency industry “in an attempt to paralyze” and force the company offshore.

Lubin said the firm’s counteraction against the SEC is aimed at getting more clarity from U.S. courts, considering that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had previously classified Ether as a commodity.

Timing is suspicious

The Consensys CEO also highlighted the upcoming deadline for the SEC to issue a decision over the approval of Ether spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a driving force behind the regulator’s renewed enforcement action against Ethereum.

“We believe that there’s a flurry of activity designed to enable them to say that their action wasn’t capricious in the very likely event that they deny the Ether spot ETFs,Lubin explained.

Lubin said the SEC had noticed how much capital had flowed into the ecosystem following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs:

“I think they’re concerned that so much attention and capital will flow to our ecosystem, considering it is improving enormously in terms of scalability and usability.”

Lubin also speculated that the prospect of the banking industry’s customers moving assets into digital forms using decentralized finance constructs could scare many banks and other financial institutions.

“The SEC probably doesn’t want to see a wave of innovation that will really transform the landscape,” he said.

Why Consensys needs to win the case

The importance of a positive outcome against the SEC could also have wide-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency and technology landscape in the United States.

Lubin said the SEC’s claims that Coinbase and MetaMask’s wallets are acting as broker-dealers are setting a dangerous precedent. He added that the thought of a piece of software acting as a broker-dealer was a “preposterous notion.”

“We’re at odds over whether we should register MetaMask as a broker-dealer. Should every MetaMask user have to register their wallet as a broker-dealer, it’s chilling,” Lubin added.

The Consensys CEO concluded that the entire technology industry in the U.S. could be impacted by the actions of the securities regulator.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/10/2024 – 13:25

 

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ICE Expected To Roll Out ID Program For Illegal Immigrants This Summer

ICE Expected To Roll Out ID Program For Illegal Immigrants This Summer

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is planning to roll out a controversial ID card pilot program for illegal immigrants being released into the US, with the stated objective of ‘modernizing the documentation process for removal proceedings,’ Fox News reports.

Images show the ICE Secure Docket Card program. (Fox News)

First reported in 2022, the ‘Secure Docket Card’ pilot program is expected to begin this summer with around 10,000 cards in a limited rollout at three or four locations in the US. The agency claims that the program is “pre-decisional” and subject to change. According to the report, Houston and Atlanta are two potential locations.

Officials claim that the program will “modernize documentation provided to some noncitizens” but it will not be an official form of federal ID.

Images show the ICE Secure Docket Card program. (Fox News)

“While the specifics of the card and pilot are under development, it is important to note the secure card will not be an official form of federal identification,” the agency said. “The secure card will indicate it is for use by DHS agencies and would be provided only after national security background checks have been performed.”

When illegal immigrants cross the border and are released into the interior, they are often given a number of paper documents depending on their status and situation. ICE says that such documents pose a security risk and can be lost and degraded, and the new program will make the agency more efficient.

It would also allow for an easier verification of identity through DHS systems via officials. -Fox News

“Moving to a secure card will save the agency millions, free up resources and ensure information is quickly accessible to DHS officials while reducing the agency’s FOIA backlog,” a spokesperson told the outlet. “For provisionally released noncitizens, the digital modernization will provide ongoing access to important immigration documents through the secure card and connected portal.”

The program is expected to face serious opposition from Republicans and conservatives who have criticized the Biden administration for regular releases of illegal immigrants.

“Just in time for the election, the Biden administration is quietly legitimizing a government-sanctioned invasion of our nation,” said RJ Hauman, president of the National Immigration Center for Enforcement (NICE) and a visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation, in a statement to Fox News Digital.

“Providing illegal aliens with identification will undoubtedly lead to obtaining other documents, benefits and rights — or create an entirely new identity. After all, most who cross the border have no identification information in their possession. So, how do we even know who they are?

On Wednesday, Republicans moved forward with legislation that would require a citizenship question on the census in order to prevent noncitizens from being counted.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/10/2024 – 13:00

 

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