Officials at the Port of Baltimore opened a fourth, 35-foot deep, temporary channel through the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge, allowing cargo ships trapped at the port to exit. 

According to Bloomberg‘s ship tracking data, four of seven ships trapped at the port navigated the new temporary channel and are sailing down the Chesapeake Bay. 

On Thursday, the Balsa 94, a bulk carrier sailing under a Panama flag, transited the temporary channel for Saint John, Canada. Three other ships, including the Saimaagracht cargo vessel, the Carmen vehicle carrier, and the Phatra Naree bulk carrier, were also able to exit. 

The general cargo ship Balsa 94 becomes the first ship to use the @portofbalt‘s 35-foot-deep Limited Access Channel promised by the @USACEHQ by the end of April. The ship had been stuck in the harbor since the March 26 collapse of the Key Bridge.

Updated story here:… pic.twitter.com/LZeE9o5rne

— gCaptain (@gCaptain) April 25, 2024

The new 35-foot depth channel is a massive increase compared to smaller channels opened several weeks after the Dali container ship slammed into the bridge one month ago, toppling the bridge and paralyzing the port. 

“While this is a significant achievement, we have a long way to go, and Unified Command is committed to fully opening the channel by the end of May,” US Coast Guard Cmdr. Baxter Smoak told reporters. 

Next week, salvage crews expect to refloat Dali, which will then be pushed back to port by tugboats for inspection. Once Dali and all debris are removed, the main shipping channel could reopen next month. 

However, Ben Schafer, an engineering professor at Johns Hopkins University, told AP News that a new bridge could take five to seven years to be rebuilt. 

“The lead time on air conditioning equipment right now for a home renovation is like 16 months, right?” Schafer said. 

He continued: “So it’s like you’re telling me they’re going to build a whole bridge in two years? I want it to be true, but I think empirically it doesn’t feel right to me.”

Let’s remember that the bridge was critical for the port and a critical feeder to the Interstate 95 highway network up and down the mid-Atlantic area. Local supply chain snarls will persist for years. 

Via Middle East Eye

The Arabic language spokesperson of the US State Department has resigned over Washington’s Gaza war policy, in the third senior level resignation from the department since the war began.

Hala Rharrit, a Palestinian-American, posted her resignation on the LinkedIn social media site, stating: “I resigned April 2024 after 18 years of distinguished service in opposition to the United States’ Gaza policy.”

Hala Rharrit, Arabic language spokesperson for the State Department, has quit in protest. Image: State Dept.

Rharrit, who joined the State Department as a political and human rights officer, was also the department’s Dubai regional media hub deputy director.

When asked about the resignation, a State Department spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday that the department has channels for its staff to share views when they disagree with government policies.

In late March, Annelle Sheline, a foreign affairs officer in the State Department’s human rights bureau, stepped down in protest over the Biden administration’s support for Israel, saying it had made her job promoting human rights “almost impossible”. 

Earlier, veteran State Department official Josh Paul, a former director overseeing US arms transfers, resigned over Biden’s “destructive, unjust” supply of arms to Israel just days after the war on Gaza began.

In January, a senior Palestinian-American official in the US Education Department, Tariq Habash, resigned from his post, saying he could no longer “stay silent as this administration turns a blind eye to the atrocities committed against innocent Palestinian lives.”

Despite mounting international criticism of Israel’s offensive that has reportedly killed more than 34,300 people and flattened swathes of Gaza, the Biden administration has continued to provide its ally with a steady stream of weapons. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House was eyeing an additional $1bn weapons deal with Israel.

On Wednesday, the US Senate joined the House of Representatives in passing an aid bill that will provide $26bn in aid for Israel and Palestine, with $4bn set to replenish Israel’s missile defense system and roughly $9bn slated for humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza.

There have been reports of internal dissent within the Biden administration as the death toll in Gaza continues to mount. In November, more than 1,000 officials at USAID, the State Department’s international aid organisation, signed an open letter calling for an immediate ceasefire. Cables criticizing the administration’s policy have also been filed with the State Department’s internal “dissent channel”.

The war has also sparked widespread anti-war demonstrations across the United States, with protests in recent weeks escalating across US universities. Student-led protests have seen encampments set up on major campuses demanding divestment from companies involved in Israel’s occupation of Palestinian land and “genocide” in Gaza. 

Egypt is attempting a last ditch effort to reach a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel at a moment IDF shelling of Rafah has intensified, in what are seen as ‘softening’ operations ahead of an imminent ground offensive, despite international calls to cancel the operation.

The Egyptian government on Friday dispatched a high level delegation to Israel led by top intelligence official Abbas Kamel. The Associated Press reported he is presenting a “new vision” for prolonged ceasefire.

But key to a breakthrough is agreement on the remaining Israeli hostages being released, and the two sides seem no closer to achieving that. The Wall Street Journal cites that “Egyptian officials familiar with the negotiations say the talks toward a hostage deal have little chance of success, but hope to use the meetings to buy time for the U.S. and regional powers to pressure Israel to pause its plans to attack Rafah.”

While things heat up in the south of the Strip, the IDF has reportedly allowed many displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza “with minimum restrictions”.

According to more via WSJ: “The main stumbling block in the negotiations now is Hamas’s demand that any deal include a credible path to a permanent cease-fire, rather than a temporary pause in the fighting, according to Egyptian and other officials familiar with the negotiations.”

As for Egypt, it is bracing for a likely massive refugee influx across its border and into Sinai should an all-out Rafah assault be unleashed. Both Egypt and Israel have been establishing camps; however, these would likely reach and overflow in capacity within 24 hours of a Rafah ground operation.

One top Hamas official told international media correspondents that Hamas is willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel. But Hamas has stuck by its key demand of a full Israeli military withdrawal from the Strip. At the same time Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to see through his vow of eradicating Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorists.

Hamas has also said it is willing to lay down its weapons if Israel vows to uphold a two-state solution. Some European countries have also called for this, and have pushed for Palestine to become a full-fledged member of the United Nations.

On Friday at least five more Palestinians have been reported killed by the intensified shelling in Rafah. Currently, more than half of the total Gaza Strip population of 2.3 million are believe to be packed into the southern city. Humanitarian aid organizations are warning of an impending disaster if there is a full military ground offensive. The past weeks have seen dozens killed in similar shelling attacks.

A large segment of the Israeli population believes that Prime Minister Netanyahu is launching into a Rafah operation full-steam for the sake of his political survival. One fresh Haaretz headline, for example reads: “Fearing the End of His Coalition, Netanyahu Edges Toward Rafah Operation Over Hostage Deal”.

IMPORTANT — It could take 14 years to clear debris in #Gaza

An estimated 37 million tonnes of debris has been left by #Israel’s war on Gaza’s widely urbanised, densely populated territory.

Source — Pehr Lodhammar, senior officer at the United Nations Mine Action Service… pic.twitter.com/VwpKyPmE8u

— Hala Jaber (@HalaJaber) April 26, 2024

Below are some fresh Associated Press headlines detailing the latest developments Friday…

Ship comes under attack off coast of Yemen as Houthi rebel campaign appears to gain new speed
Satellite photos show new port construction in Gaza Strip for US-led aid operation
Some campuses call in police to break up pro-Palestinian demonstrations, while others wait it out
Chef José Andrés says aid workers killed by Israeli airstrikes represented the ‘best of humanity’
UN report says 282 million people faced acute hunger in 2023, with the worst famine in Gaza
EU military officer says a frigate has destroyed a drone launched from Yemen’s Houthi-held areas
North Gaza still headed toward famine, UN food agency says
Israel masses military vehicles along Gaza border

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in the New York Post on yesterday’s oral arguments on presidential immunity. As expected, with the exception of the three liberal justices, the Court appears to be struggling to find a more nuanced approach that would avoid the extreme positions of both parties. Rather than take a header off either cliff, the justices seem interested in a controlled descent into the depths of Article II.

Here is the column:

Writer Ray Bradbury once said, “Living at risk is jumping off the cliff and building your wings on the way down.”

In Thursday’s case before the Supreme Court on the immunity of former President Donald Trump, nine justices appear to be feverishly working with feathers and glue on a plunge into a constitutional abyss.

It has been almost 50 years since the high court ruled presidents have absolute immunity from civil lawsuits in Nixon v. Fitzgerald.

The court held ex-President Richard Nixon had such immunity for acts taken “within the ‘outer perimeter’ of his official responsibility.”

Yet in 1974’s United States v. Nixon, the court ruled a president is not immune from a criminal subpoena. Nixon was forced to comply with a subpoena for his White House tapes in the Watergate scandal from special counsel Leon Jaworski.

Since then, the court has avoided any significant ruling on the extension of immunity to a criminal case — until now.

There are cliffs on both sides of this case.

If the court were to embrace special counsel Jack Smith’s arguments, a president would have no immunity from criminal charges, even for official acts taken in his presidency.

It would leave a president without protection from endless charges from politically motivated prosecutors.

If the court were to embrace Trump counsel’s arguments, a president would have complete immunity.

It would leave a president largely unaccountable under the criminal code for any criminal acts.

The first cliff is made obvious by the lower-court opinion. While the media have largely focused on extreme examples of president-ordered assassinations and coups, the justices are clearly as concerned with the sweeping implications of the DC Circuit opinion.

Chief Justice John Roberts noted the DC Circuit failed to make any “focused” analysis of the underlying acts, instead offering little more than a judicial shrug.

Roberts read its statement that “a former president can be prosecuted for his official acts because the fact of the prosecution means that the former president has acted in defiance of the laws” and noted it sounds like “a former president can be prosecuted because he is being prosecuted.”

The other cliff is more than obvious from the other proceedings occuring as these arguments were made. Trump’s best attorney proved to be Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

If the justices want insight into the implications of denying any immunity, they just need to look north to New York City.

The ongoing prosecution of Trump is legally absurd but has resulted in the leading presidential candidate not only being gagged but prevented from campaigning.

Alvin Bragg is the very personification of the danger immunity is meant to avoid.

With cliffs to the left and the right, the justices are looking at a free-fall dive into the scope of constitutional and criminal law as they apply to presidential conduct.

They may be looking not for a foothold as much as a shorter drop.

Some of the justices are likely to be seeking a third option where a president has some immunity under a more limited and less tautological standard than the one the DC Circuit offered.

The problem for the court is presidential privilege and immunity decisions are meant to give presidents breathing room by laying out bright lines within which they can operate.

Ambiguity defeats the purpose of such immunity. So does a test that turns on the motivation of an official act.

The special counsel insists, for example, Trump was acting for his personal interest in challenging certification and raising electoral fraud since he was the other candidate.

But what if he wasn’t on the ballot — would it have been an official function to raise such concerns for other candidates?

When pressed on the line between official and nonofficial conduct, the special counsel just dismissed such concerns and said Trump was clearly acting as an office-seeker not an officeholder.

Likewise, the special counsel argued the protection for presidents must rest with the good motivations and judgment of prosecutors.

It was effectively a “Trust us, we’re the government” assurance. Justice Samuel Alito and others questioned whether such reliance is well placed after decades of prosecutors’ proven abuses.

Finally, if there is no immunity, could President Barack Obama be prosecuted for ordering the killing of a citizen by drone attack and then killing his son in a second drone attack?

The government insisted there is an exception for such acts from the murder statute.

In the end, neither party offers a particularly inviting path. No immunity or complete immunity each holds obvious dangers.

I have long opposed sweeping arguments of immunity from criminal charges for presidents. The devil is in the details, and many justices are struggling with how to define official versus nonofficial conduct.

The line-drawing proved maddening for the justices in the oral argument. The most they could say is similar to the story of the man who jumped off a building. As he passes an office window halfway down, another man calls out to ask how he’s doing. The jumper responds, “So far so good.”

As the justices work on a new set of legal wings, anything is possible as the nation waits for the court to hit ground zero in the middle of the 2024 presidential election.

There have been emerging reports Friday that Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir has been hospitalized after a serious car accident.

Regional media outlet The Cradle writes that “Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir has been hospitalized after his car overturned in Ramla while leaving the scene of a stabbing attack.”

Video of the flipped car of Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, circulating on Israeli telegram channels pic.twitter.com/SjPV1muqgE

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) April 26, 2024

Axios correspondent Barak Ravid also confirms that the cabinet minister was in a government car which was in an accident and flipped over.

Ben Gvir has reportedly been injured, and images and footage from the scene shows what appears to be a very serious accident. Unconfirmed reports say that “According to Israeli media, his car had run a red light before the accident.”

The incident comes as the country is deeply divided over the Netanyahu government’s Gaza policy. Ben Gvir is considered among the most ‘extreme’ ministers in the governing coalition, also having ties with internationally sanctioned settler movements which engage in attempts to cleanse West Bank areas of any Palestinian presence.

Israeli media is already spotlighting controversial elements surrounding Ben Gvir and the Friday car crash, with Haaretz reporting the national security minister’s driving habits have been flagged as dangerous. According to machine translation of the Hebrew report:

The Shin Bet contacted the Prime Minister’s Office and the Ministry of National Security following several cases in which Minister Itamar Ben Gabir’s car was driven in violation of traffic laws, Haaretz learned.

According to security sources, the minister’s security guards complained to their superiors in the ministry that the minister was ordering his drivers to commit offenses. Traffic, including passing a red light at traffic lights, driving at excessive speed and driving on the side of the road.

Images from the scene show that Ben Gvir’s injuries might be quite serious (though some reports suggest only minor injuries)…

Earlier this month Ben Gvir stirred more controversy when he deeply criticized Netanyahu’s ‘limited’ retaliatory attack on Iran, calling it ‘lame’ and implying that the response was weak and should have been much bigger and stronger.

Currently there is a lot of reported infighting even among the top decision-makers on Gaza wartime policy. The Wall Street Journal recently featured a headline that underscored Israel’s war leaders don’t trust one another. This comes as they are dealing simultaneously with the operation in Gaza, repelling Hezbollah daily drone and missile attacks in the north, and of course the new tit-for-tat crisis with Iran.

Pro-Palestine pundits took to social media and immediately began speculating over the apparent serious car accident…

The Americans tried to off Ben Gvir today 😂 https://t.co/6zHNcsvexw

— Sharmine Narwani (@snarwani) April 26, 2024

“Long-simmering grudges and arguments over how best to fight Hamas have soured relations between Israel’s wartime decision makers—Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and the former head of the Israeli military, Benny Gantz,” the publication wrote. 

Amid contrasting reports, public broadcaster Kann news says the minister was “lightly injured” in the accident.

#BREAKING: Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir was injured in a car accident, he was taken to hospital after he was lightly injured pic.twitter.com/99FmEwQbKF

— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) April 26, 2024

“The three men are at odds over the biggest decisions they need to make: how to launch a decisive military push, free Israel’s hostages and govern the postwar strip.”

⚡️The moment Ben Gvir got into the accident pic.twitter.com/uxF3OVgzhn

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 26, 2024

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Conservative states across the country—Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, and Oklahoma—are taking border security matters into their own hands, proposing or passing legislation targeting illegal immigration.

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock, Getty Images)

The Oklahoma legislature just passed a bill designed to prohibit illegal immigrants from entering or living in the state.

HB 4156 states: “A person commits an impermissible occupation if the person is an alien and willfully and without permission enters and remains in the State of Oklahoma without having first obtained legal authorization to enter the United States.”

The bill passed the state House and Senate by wide margins and Gov. Kevin Stitt, a Republican, is expected to sign it into law.

The legislature declared the issue a crisis in the state and stated in the bill: “Throughout the state, law enforcement comes into daily and increasingly frequent contact with foreign nationals who entered the country illegally or who remain here illegally.

“Often, these persons are involved with organized crime such as drug cartels, they have no regard for Oklahoma’s laws or public safety, and they produce or are involved with fentanyl distribution, sex trafficking, and labor trafficking.”

Under the new law, a conviction related to “impermissible occupation” would be considered a misdemeanor, punishable by up to one year in a county jail, a fine of up to $500, or both.

Subsequent offenses are felonies, punishable by up to two years in prison, a fine of up to $1,000, or both.

Illegal immigrants who are barred from the country or have been issued a removal order by an immigration judge, and then enter Oklahoma will face a felony charge carrying a possible sentence of up to two years in prison, a fine of up to $1,000, or both.

In all instances, those found guilty must leave Oklahoma within 72 hours of being convicted or released from custody.

A prison cell block at the El Reno Federal Correctional Institution in El Reno, Okla., on July 16, 2015. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

The law requires police to collect fingerprints, photographs, and biometric data, which will be cross-checked with Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation databases.

“The failure of the federal government to address this issue … has turned every state into a border state,” said bill sponsor state Rep. Charles Mr. McCall said in a statement.

“Those who want to work through the process of coming to our country legally are more than welcome to come to Oklahoma; we would love to have them here. We will not reward [illegal immigration] in Oklahoma, and we will protect our state borders.”

U.S. border authorities have apprehended more than 9 million illegal immigrants nationwide under President Joe Biden, according to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data.

Under the administration’s catch-and-release policy, many have been released into the United States and have taken up residence all over the country.

Texas’ law, Senate Bill 4, makes it a state crime to enter Texas outside legal ports of entry.

The new law was set to go into effect in March, but has been blocked and is currently tied up in the courts.

New Iowa, Tennessee, and Georgia Laws

Earlier this month, Iowa’s Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds signed Senate File 2340 into law.

The new law, which goes into effect July 1, makes it a misdemeanor to be in the state or attempt to enter the state after being deported, denied admission to the United States, or if an individual has an outstanding deportation order.

Being in the state illegally becomes a felony under certain circumstances such as the accused having two or more misdemeanor convictions involving drugs or crimes against a person.

As with the Texas law, it gives judges the discretion to drop the charges if the illegal immigrant agrees to return to the country from which he or she entered the United States.

“Those who come into our country illegally have broken the law, yet Biden refuses to deport them,” Ms. Reynolds stated in a news release.

“This bill gives Iowa law enforcement the power to do what he is unwilling to do: enforce immigration laws already on the books.”

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee signed a new law this month that requires law enforcement agencies to communicate with federal immigration authorities if they discover people are in the country illegally, requiring in most cases cooperation in the process of identifying, catching, detaining, and deporting them.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott holds a press conference at Shelby Park in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Feb. 4, 2024. (Sergio Flores/AFP via Getty Images)

The law takes effect July 1.

“When there is an interaction with law enforcement, it’s important that the appropriate authorities are notified of the status of that individual,” Mr. Lee, a Republican, told reporters after signing the bill into law. “I think that makes sense. So, I’m in support of that legislation.”

Members of the Tennessee House blamed President Biden’s lack of border enforcement for the necessity of the law.

“President Biden’s administration has delivered this pain to our doorsteps,” Tennessee state Rep. Chris Todd said on the House floor.

In Georgia, lawmakers passed House Bill 1105 that would require jailers to check the immigration status of inmates.

The bill is part of an ongoing political response to the February slaying of nursing student Laken Riley on the University of Georgia campus, allegedly by an illegal immigrant from Venezuela.

The man, Jose Antonio Ibarra, was arrested in February on murder and assault charges in the death of the 22-year-old.

Immigration officials say Mr. Ibarra, 26, crossed into the United States illegally in 2022. The Department of Homeland Security confirmed to Sen. Lindsey Graham(R-S.C.)  that Mr. Ibarra was paroled into the country illegally due to “capacity problems” at border detention facilities

The Georgia bill was sent to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s desk on April 3 and awaits his signature, at which time most measures would take effect immediately.

Louisiana, Arizona, New Hampshire

Texas’ neighbor, Louisiana, is considering the passage of SB 388, a GOP-led bill that would allow state police to arrest suspected illegal immigrants within the state.

The law passed the chamber on April 8 along party lines and headed to the House, also controlled by Republicans.

“Louisiana is one step closer to securing our border and addressing our illegal immigration crisis,” Republican state Sen. Valarie Hodges, the bill’s sponsor, posted on X.

A National Guard soldier looks across the Rio Grande to Mexico on the border in Eagle Pass, Texas, on May 23, 2022. (Allison Dinner/AFP via Getty Images)

The battleground state of Arizona passed a law similar to Texas’ HB 4, but its Democratic Gov. Katy Hobbs vetoed it.

That inspired the Legislature to draft a ballot measure to be put to voters in November that would require businesses to use E-verify. E-verify is a voluntary federal online service for employers to check an employee’s eligibility to work in the United States against Department of Homeland Security and Social Security records.

New Hampshire, which is Republican-led, passed SB 504 allowing police to bring criminal trespassing charges against people suspected of illegally entering the United States from Canada. The measure must be approved by the House to advance.

Cities and Counties

Cities and counties in red and blue states are also pushing back in creative ways to stop illegal immigrants from coming into their jurisdictions.

“They’re basically dumped on their doorstep,” said Jessica Vaughan, director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies, a “pro-immigrant, low-immigration” think tank.

In June 2023, New York City under Democratic Mayor Eric Adams sued more than 30 New York local governments alleging they issued unlawful executive orders prohibiting temporary housing for illegal immigrants in their jurisdictions.

Counties such as Orange and Rockland in upstate New York were successful in using local zoning laws to stop the mayor from busing illegal immigrants to live in their hotels.

The state Supreme Court granted Rockland a temporary restraining order against the mayor’s plan after the county argued that local zoning laws bar hotels from operating as shelters.

Orange County was granted a similar ruling.

Likewise, zoning was used by the city of Taunton, Massachusetts, to stop illegal immigrants from living in hotels, Ms. Vaughan said.

In May 2023, the state was paying millions of dollars to house some 120 homeless and migrant families at a local hotel long-term.

A bus carrying illegal immigrants from Texas arrives at Port Authority Bus Terminal in New York City on Aug. 10, 2022.

Taunton city leaders filed a lawsuit against the hotel, claiming it violated its occupancy limit for nearly four months. The city aims to collect $114,600 in fines.

Residents in these small communities often struggle with housing and obtaining services that illegal immigrants get for free, Ms. Vaughan noted.

“Now paying taxes, essentially, to support these illegal migrants in their town. The schools have to accommodate them. And that’s a huge cost on the local taxpayers,” she said.

In Colorado’s Mesa County, commissioners passed a resolution in February declaring the county a “non-sanctuary county,” and denying shelter and services to illegal aliens sent there by the state or federal government, she said.

Commissioners also passed a resolution to send a letter to Denver Mayor Mike Johnston informing him the county doesn’t plan to help the city deal with its illegal immigrant surge.

Ms. Vaughan said that she believes other states are waiting to see what happens with some of Texas’ laws, such as SB 4, which are aimed at deterring illegal immigration.

“I think the feeling among most state and local officials that I’ve talked to about it is that they are watching and waiting and hoping that the court will draw some boundaries for them on what they can and cannot do,” she said.

Florida’s Laws

When it comes to making life more difficult for illegal immigrants through legislation, Florida has proven as aggressive as Texas.

Besides beefing up law enforcement to help the U.S. Coast Guard spot migrants and sending the Florida National Guard to Texas, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has approved laws to deter illegal aliens from staying in the Sunshine State.

The Republican governor signed SB 1718 in 2023, which was criticized by the left as one of the most anti-illegal immigrant pieces of legislation in the country.

Read more here…

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

One in five samples of milk from grocery store shelves tested positive for the highly pathogenic avian influenza, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced late April 25.

A dairy cow at a dairy farm in Ohio, on December 12, 2014. (Aaron Josefczuk/Reuters)

In a brief 237-word update, the FDA said that initial results from a national commercial milk sampling study “show about 1 in 5 of the retail samples tested are quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-positive for HPAI viral fragments, with a greater proportion of positive results coming from milk in areas with infected herds.”

The FDA has refused to disclose how many samples it tested and from which stores the samples came, and a Freedom of Information Act request for the information has not yet yielded results.

Thirty-three cattle herds across eight states—Idaho, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota, and Texas—have tested positive for avian influenza, commonly known as the bird flu, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Poultry in Minnesota and a person in Texas have also become infected with the same genotype of the H5N1 avian influenza strain found in cattle.

Authorities have stressed that positive results from qPCR testing do not mean the pasteurized milk contains intact virus, because the testing can return positive based on fragments of residual virus.

“Additional testing is required to determine whether intact pathogen is still present and if it remains infectious, which would help inform a determination of whether there is any risk of illness associated with consuming the product,” the FDA said.

Testing includes injecting eggs with samples that tested positive and seeing whether any active virus replicates.

In another round of testing, conducted by a team from Ohio State University, 58 of 150 milk samples gathered from grocery stores across six states tested positive for bird flu.

“We’ve screened them for the presence of influenza genetic material, so the viral RNA. Those that have tested positive, we have been forwarded to St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, where they are conducting studies to see if there’s a viable virus in there. To date, none of them have been viable, but certainly they give the indication that there is viral genetic material in the region,” Dr. Andrew Bowman, an associate professor at Ohio State University, told the Bovine Veterinarian magazine.

“The fact that you can go into a supermarket and 30 percent to 40 percent of those samples test positive, that suggests there’s more of the virus around than is currently being recognized,” Richard Webby, a virologist at St. Jude’s, told STAT News.

The FDA has said it will release more details about the testing in the future. Raw milk from farms with affected cows has also tested positive for bird flu.

Authorities initially said that pasteurized milk was definitely safe but have since acknowledged that they’re not sure whether milk in grocery stores contains live bird flu virus. The FDA announced Tuesday that some samples tested positive for the influenza.

Officials say it’s still safe to drink milk but some outside experts, including former U.S. government official Rick Bright, have said they’re going to hold off until more information is made public about the outbreak.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture only required testing dairy cows showing symptoms of the flu but, starting Monday will require lactating cows to test negative before being moved across state lines.

The flu originated in birds but has since moved to other animals, including cattle and goats.

The person in Texas, and an individual in Colorado who became sick in 2022, are the only humans with confirmed cases of the H5N1 version in the United States.

Monitoring of people who have come into contact with animals has only covered 44 people so far, Sonja Olsen, an epidemiologist with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told an Association of State and Territorial Health Officials webinar this week. Twenty-three people who showed symptoms were tested. The person in Texas, a farm worker, has been the only person to test positive so far.

With oil prices enjoying a powerful renaissance in recent months amid mounting supply concerns, declining inventory and the growing possibility that China’s economy may finally kickstart, energy giants such as Exxon and Chevron had enjoyed a similar rebound in their stock price, and in fact XOM hit a record high as recently as 2 weeks ago. Which is why many were looking to today’s earnings reports by the largest US energy company to see if the numbers would validate the rebound in sentiment and, of course, price.

So here is what Exxon reported today for the first quarter:

EPS of $2.06, down from 2.83 a year ago, and missing consensus estimates of $2.19, as a result of delayed bump in commodity prices (which however will lift results in Q2) and a spike in non-cash charges

The Net Income number was $8.22 billion, down from $11.618 billion a year ago, with weakness in Upstream and Energy products hitting the bottom line number, coupled with an increases in expenses.  The biggest factor behind the drop in earnings was a $2.6 billion hit to price/margin due to lower energy prices in Q1. However, with Brent now well above year ago levels and rising, what XOM lost in Q1 it will more than make up in Q2 absent a collapse in the energy market.

A breakdown by the various operating segments, reveals that price and margin were indeed the biggest culprits for declining earnings.

Taking a closer look at the company’s two main divisions, Upstream and Energy products, the company provided the following detail for the somewhat disappointing earnings here:

Starting with Upstream:

Lower gas realizations due to high industry inventory
Advantaged assets volume improved due to continued growth in Guyana
>600 Kbd of Guyana quarterly gross production
Payara ramped up to 220 Kbd capacity well ahead of schedule

Base volume lower due to unfavorable sales timing and entitlement impacts
Timing effects had a negative $120 million impact on the quarter compared to a negative $160 million impact last quarter

Energy products, where we saw the bulk of the earnings delta (some $1.7BN in earnings reductions between Q4 and Q1), was more interesting as Exxon attributed the slide to three primary drivers:

Volumes and expenses reflect higher scheduled maintenance activity
Non-cash charges which reflected the absence of favorable year-end inventory impacts, and unfavorable tax adjustments
Finally, timing effects which had a negative $460 million impact on the quarter, consistent with rising price environment compared to a positive $600 million impact last quarter.

“Any given quarter we’ll have a number of non-cash, just a bit more unusual expenses that kind of ebb and flow,” CFO Kathy Mikells told BBG in an interview. “This quarter we had a number of small ones that added up together to be more significant and that’s difficult for analysts to model.”

“We continue to bring projects in more quickly and under budget so we’ve just had great execution in Guyana,” Mikells said, noting that gross daily production is now more than 600,000 barrels, up from 440,000 in the final three months of 2023.

Exxon’s accounting charges were non-cash items associated with tax and inventory balance sheet adjustments, Mikells said. The company also had higher expenses from scheduled maintenance at its facilities.

Some more highlights from the report:

Exxon started output at Payara, its third Guyanese development, ahead of schedule late last year, adding 220,000 barrels of daily supplies that earn profits even if crude plunges to the $35 mark.
Achieved quarterly gross production of more than 600,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day in Guyana and reached a final investment decision on the sixth major development.
Net production was 47,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day lower than the same quarter last year with the growth in advantaged Guyana volumes more than offsetting the earnings impact from lower base volumes due to divestments, government-mandated curtailments and unfavorable entitlement effects.
Excluding the impacts from divestments, entitlements, and government-mandated curtailments, net production grew 77,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day driven by the start-up of the Payara development in Guyana.

What is remarkable is that even though earnings missed mostly on the timing effect of commodity price increases and one-time charges, which has sent the stock tumbling this morning, the company still managed to blow away expectations for cash generation: in Q1, cash from operations jumped to $14.7 billion, $1 billion higher than Q4 2023 and also $1 billion higher than forecasts, boosted by the more than 35% uplift in Guyanese crude production.

This in turn led to a $1.8 billion increase in the company’s cash balance despite $6.8 billion in shareholders distributions including $3.8 billion in dividends.

Exxon’s capital spending was $5.8 billion in the first quarter, a third lower than the previous three month period when the company incurred some added Guyana costs. If that level of spending is repeated for the rest of the year, annual capital expenditure would come in at the low end of the company’s $23 billion to $25 billion guidance, and in a market where capital efficiency is extremely rewarded, it likely means that new all time highs are just weeks if not days away.

More importantly, XOM says that it is on pace to increase buybacks to $20 billion following the close of the Pioneer acquisition, some time in Q2.

Exxon’s stellar performance in Guyana explains why arch-rival Chevron wants to get into the project via a $53 billion takeover of Hess, which has a 30% stake. Exxon claims it has a right-of-first refusal over Hess’s stake while Chevron says that doesn’t apply because its deal is a corporate merger.

Arbitration is still in its “very early days,” Mikells said. Each side has chosen one arbitrator who will sit on a panel of three, she said. Hess this week extended the closing date of its deal with Chevron by six months to October.

Finally looking ahead, the company forecast that it is on track to more than double upstream profits by 2027…

… and with cost-savings expected to save another $5BN in spending by 2027 (a total of $15BN vs 2019), this translates into a stellar 10% CAGR in bottom line earnings, and about $10BN in incremental earnings potential by 2027.

So in its infinite wisdom, when faced with a company that is generating more cash than 99% of companies – and is not reliant on hype and chatbots to keep growing but good, old-fashioned energy which may be boring but is what keeps the world turning – this morning the algos decided to dump their Exxon shares sending the stock some 4% lower, and allowing anyone who pays attention to load up on the dip.

The XOM Q1 investor presentation is below (pdf link)

Citing safety concerns amid nationwide campus protests against Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza, the University of Southern California on Thursday announced that its 2024 graduating class will not have the traditional main commencement ceremony that brings all graduates together:

“With the new safety measures in place this year, the time needed to process the large number of guests coming to campus will increase substantially. As a result, we will not be able to host the main stage ceremony that traditionally brings 65,000 students, families, and friends to our campus all at the same time and during a short window from 8:30 a.m. to 10 a.m.”

This news comes on the heels of the university’s controversial declaration that it wouldn’t allow its Muslim valedictorian to deliver a speech to her classmates — a decision that inflamed tensions and prompted an outcry against what was seen by many as an act of censorship and excessive deference to pro-Israel groups. 

More immediately, the cancellation also comes on the heels of mass arrests on USC’s campus on Wednesday. More than 90 people were carted off as police cleared protesters from their “occupation” of Alumni Park. As at Columbia University and elsewhere, the protesters are demanding that USC divest from Israel, much as an earlier generation of activists sought similar divestments from apartheid South Africa. 

Cops arrest protestors at USC pic.twitter.com/KH7kbKmlEv

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) April 24, 2024

On a statement to the campus on Wednesday, USC Provost Andrew Guzman noted that protesters — many of the whom “do not appear to be affiliated with USC”– failed to comply with direction to remove tents from the property. He also said protesters “actions have escalated to include acts of vandalism, defacing campus buildings and structures, as well as physical confrontation.”

Earlier this month, USC announced that its 2024 valedictorian is Asna Tabassum, a self-described first-generation South Asian-American Muslim who is a biomedical engineering major and resistance-to-genocide minor (details on that discipline here). Her selection sparked an immediate uproar from Zionist groups, including Trojans for Israel, which “advocates for the vitality of the US-Israel relationship,” and We Are Tov, which also promotes support for Israel. 

Tabassum’s detractors pointed to her social media history, with Trojans for Israel accusing her of “openly traffic[king] antisemitic and anti-Zionist rhetoric.” 

Her supposedly disqualifying expressions included:

Sharing a link to a slideshow on “what’s happening in Palestine and how to help.” The presentation called for “one Palestinian state” and “the complete abolishment of the state of Israel,” according to the Times of Israel. 

Linking to a site that characterizes Zionism as a “racist settler-colonial ideology.” 

Students and faculty protesting USC’s cancellation of valedictorian Asna Tabassum’s commencement speech (Alan Mittelstaedt via LAist)

USC promptly caved to pro-Israel outcry: On April 16, it announced it had canceled Tabassum’s speech because “discussion related to the selection of our valedictorian has taken on an alarming tenor” and that “the intensity of feelings…has grown to include many voices outside of USC and has escalated to the point of creating substantial risks.” At the same time, USC also cancelled appearances by speakers and honorees that included Billie Jean King and “Crazy Rich Asians” director Jon Chu. 

After the USC decision, Tabassum issued a statement noting that, via her resistance to genocide minor — which emphasizes the Holocaust — “[I] have learned that ordinary people are capable of unspeakable acts of violence when they are taught hate fueled by fear. And due to widespread fear, I was hoping to use my commencement speech to inspire my classmates with a message of hope. By canceling my speech, USC is only caving to fear and rewarding hatred.”

As for the commencement cancellation, USC’s shut-it-all-down move echoes the excessive caution displayed by the American education system in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those echoes are all too loud for USC seniors — four years ago, many of them were denied high school graduation ceremonies in the name of “safety.”

Now, their college commencement ceremony has been similarly vaporized, only by a different set of quivering academics. 

“It is both enabling and irresponsible. Rather than protect students and their families at this important and well-earned event in their lives, the university is yielding to the mob. It is a feckless and feeble response to what should have been an easy decision for any administrator,” said Jonathan Turley.

After hearing the news, one of those seniors, who goes by @gracieflynn12, took to TikTok to vent: 

“The seniors that are graduating college right now are the seniors that graduated in 2020, where we didn’t have a high school graduation. A lot of us had drive-through fake graduations or no graduation at all. And now we are seniors getting ready for our first real graduation and it just got cancelled…

…I just had my last class ever, and just right after, should be celebrating. But we just got the new that we have no graduation, so now all my roommates are depressed, and we were all literally just sitting in the living room in tears.”

Here, a USC senior who was robbed of a high school graduation by the COVID Panic reacts to USC cancelling her college commencement because of an anti-Israel valedictorian and fear of protests…

This is the world that liberals want and are creating for her and her generation.😡🥲 pic.twitter.com/QhbTAfBBcp

— John Ziegler (@Zigmanfreud) April 26, 2024

…but at least one especially admirable voice against the Covid regime is being consistent: 

It was wrong for public health tyrants to cancel high school graduation for the senior class of 2020.

It is wrong for USC to cancel the big graduation ceremony for their undergraduate class of 2024.

Let the kids (ok, young adults) celebrate graduation for once! pic.twitter.com/FA6qR2mGQ0

— Jay Bhattacharya (@DrJBhattacharya) April 26, 2024

Jonathan Turley summed up the situation succinctly: “The problem of violent protests and threats on campus is not solved by removing the potential victims. To yield this ground is to surrender control over not just the campus but the academic operations of the school. Higher education has to aspire to be more than a mere mobocracy where threats not logic prevail. “

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The latest retail sales data suggests a robust consumer, leading economists to become even more optimistic about more robust economic growth this year. To wit:

“It has been two years since forecasters felt this good about the economic outlook. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey. That was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%.

Economists don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they, on average, forecast sub-1% growth in each of the first three quarters of this year. Now, they expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter.” – WSJ

According to the March retail sales data, consumer spending added “fuel” to economists’ exuberance about this year.

Rising inflation in March didn’t deter consumers, who continued shopping at a more rapid pace than anticipated, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Retail sales increased 0.7% for the month, considerably faster than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for a 0.3% rise though below the upwardly revised 0.9% in February, according to Census Bureau data that is adjusted for seasonality but not for inflation.” – CNBC

The chart below shows the monthly change in the retail sales data over the last two years.

While mainstream economists trumpeted the strength of the consumer, the March retail sales data had some interesting points worth noting.

First, retail sales data was extraordinarily weak from October to January, the traditionally strongest shopping months of the year. That period included Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and NYear’sr’s. So, to some degree, the strength of spending over the last two months is unsurprising as, eventually, consumers need to buy goods or services previously postponed.

Secondly, while the March retail sales data was strong, it was weaker than February. However, March contained two significant spending periods, Spring Break and Easter, which generally don’t occur. Since Spring Break and Easter are considerable travel and shopping periods, it is unsurprising that the retail sales data increased with oil prices rising. As shown below, there is a very high correlation between nominal retail sales and oil prices.

Paying More For The Same Amount

Economists often overlook another important point about the retail sales data. As noted above, the March retail sales report was NOT adjusted for inflation. Furthermore, the report is in nominal “dollar volume” and not the amount of goods or services sold. Oil and gasoline prices are an excellent example of the issue with the retail sales data.

Let’s assume you own a car with 18-gallon fuel tank. Your daily activities are mostly going to work, going to the grocery store, eating out, having entertainment, etc. As such, you consume one tank of gas each week. Here is the math:

Week 1: 18-gallons of gas @ $3/gallon = $54.

That week, the store adds $54 to the monthly retail sales total for selling 18 gallons of gasoline. However, the price will increase to $4 per gallon next week.

Week 2: 18-gallons of gas @ $4/gallon = $72.

Here is the question.

While the retail sales data increased by $18 in week two, did the consumer purchase more gasoline? In other words, if the economy’s strength is ultimately measured by how much we produce (gross domestic product), then does spending more for the same amount of goods or services equate to a stronger economy?

The picture is quite different if we adjust the nominal retail sales data for inflation. Again, it is unsurprising that even on an inflation-adjusted basis, retail sales rose in February after declining for four months previously. However, with March containing Spring Break and Easter, the data suggests a weaker consumer that headlines tout.

It is worth noting that retail sales data is not very useful in determining whether the economy is nearing a recession. As shown below, an annual growth rate of 2% has been a good marker for economic growth. As such, retail sales should grow at roughly 2% annually as well, given that personal consumption expenditures comprise approximately 70% of the economic equation. However, other than 2007, retail sales did not clarify economic strength.

In other words, spending more for the same amount of goods and services is not a sign of economic strength.

Economic Forecasts Tend To Be Erroneous

Furthermore, while the recent nominal sales data was robust, it is crucial to remember the economic data has a significant lag. Each of the dates below shows the economy’s growth rate immediately before the onset of a recession. You will note in the table that in 7 of the last 10 recessions, real GDP growth was running at 2% or above. In other words, according to the media, there was NO indication of a recession. But the next month, one began.

Crucially, I am not saying a recession is starting next month. However, I suggest that relying heavily on one month’s retail sales data to claim the economy avoided a recession is not likely ideal. Let’s revisit that chart of the WSJ economic forecast. I have added two notations: the start and end of recessions and when the NBER officially dated that period. As shown in both previous recessions, WSJ economists had a very low probability of the economy entering a recession just before it occurred.

The reality is that on an inflation-adjusted basis, the retail sales data suggests the consumer remains weak. While spending more to buy the same amount of goods or services may look good on paper, the average household has less money to spend elsewhere. As shown, the annual rate of change in real retail sales is near some of the lowest levels outside of a recession.

Lastly, consumer credit supporting retail sales will become more problematic with rising interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to reduce the average growth rate of retail sales data.

Our advice is to remain cautious about economic exuberance. Those forecasts are often disappointing.