By Joseph Lord of Epoch Times

The House of Representatives on May 8 overwhelmingly voted to block a measure to strip House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) of the gavel advanced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) forced a vote on a motion to vacate after meeting with the speaker twice this week to discuss her grievances and demands.

House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) then offered a measure to table Ms. Greene’s motion to vacate. Democrats joined Republicans to approve its shelving in a 359 to 43 vote. 11 Republicans voted to move forward with the ouster attempt.

BREAKING — THE HOUSE has resoundingly tabled a motion to oust @SpeakerJohnson

359-43

R
196Y
11N

D
163Y
32N

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) May 8, 2024

House Democrat leaders had earlier pledged to help protect Mr. Johnson in the event of Ms. Greene’s ouster vote, citing his help in passing $95 billion foreign aid for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific.

Speaking on the House floor during what was intended to be the final vote of the week, Ms. Greene unleashed a litany of complaints against Mr. Johnson.

She received a loud “boo” from members present when she brought the resolution to the floor.

The Georgia lawmaker was accompanied by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), one of two Republicans who openly expressed support for the measure.

Mr. Johnson has previously denounced Ms. Greene’s attempt to oust him, calling it a “dangerous gambit.”

“I think it’s wrong for the Republican Party. I think it’s wrong for the institution,” he said last week.

Ms. Greene, on the House floor, cited a series of alleged conservative failures by Mr. Johnson, alleging that he had “aided and abetted the Biden administration in destroying our country.”

The other wild thing about this statement is that Trump floats that he may support ousting @SpeakerJohnson but not now!

“We’re not in a position on voting on a motion to vacate. At some point, we may very well be, but this is not the time.” https://t.co/wxbG79xBsL

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) May 8, 2024

These included his move to allow a vote on a motion to expel Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) from the lower chamber, marking the first time in U.S. history that a member has been expelled before a conviction for a crime.

Ms. Greene also cited his move to pass a 1,000-page, $1.2 trillion government funding package after giving lawmakers less than 48 hours to consider it, as required by internal rules.

The Georgia Republican also noted that Mr. Johnson’s move to pass billions in foreign aid for Ukraine came without any demands on border security, effectively yielding any leverage Republicans had over the issue.

Additionally, she noted Mr. Johnson’s crucial vote to kill a warrant requirement for the reauthorization of a controversial surveillance power.

More in the full developing report at Epoch Times

A combination of factors, including remote work, an exodus of progressive cities, higher interest rates for longer, and diminished credit availability, continues to pressure the office tower market nationwide. The latest example of challenges facing the $20 trillion commercial real estate market comes from New York City.

Bloomberg reports that the $400 million loan backing 1440 Broadway, a 25-story tower at the corner of Broadway and 40th Street in Midtown Manhattan, has fallen into delinquent status.

The loan was bundled into commercial mortgage-backed security called JPMCC 2021-1440. 

“One of the loans responsible for this meaningful month-over-month increase was the $399 million 1440 Broadway loan securitized in JPMCC 2021-1440,” JPMorgan analysts led by Chong Sin, Terrell Bobb and John Sim wrote in a note to clients. 

The analysts said the deal sponsors “failed to pay the loan’s balloon payment last month, and now the loan is considered non-performing matured.”

According to JPM data, the serious delinquency rate for office loans hit 7% in April, the highest level since the first half of 2017. 

1440 Broadway has been plagued with a drop in office space demand. One of its largest tenants, WeWork, downsized after declaring bankruptcy in late 2023. Another top tenant, Macy’s, has struggled with sliding foot traffic because of fewer office workers in the city. On top of this, the high-interest rate environment has pushed up the cost of financing. 

Here’s additional color of the property from JPM: 

“… The property’s two largest tenants at securitization, WeWork and Macy’s, have presented significant challenges to the continued performance of this loan. At securitization, these two tenants accounted for 70% of the property’s rental income. However, Macy’s vacated the property at the end of its lease term in January 2024. WeWork declared bankruptcy earlier this year but has worked with the property’s sponsors to amend the terms of its lease. WeWork negotiated a 40% decrease in rent as it is now expected to pay just $44 psf for its space in the building as opposed to the $73.26 it was originally paying. WeWork will gradually pay more for its space as the amended lease terms do include steps up in rent. Additionally, WeWork was able to shorten the length of its lease. WeWork’s lease was originally intended to end in 2035 but is now expected to end in 2028. We estimate that the property’s occupancy rate is now at 58% and a 52% decline in gross rental income from the prior year.”

Looking at citywide office occupancy trends, card-swipe data from Katle Systems shows below 50%, an ominous sign office workers aren’t returning in droves. 

The CRE mess is far from over. In fact, it is a rolling disaster, with the real fireworks coming later this year if interest rates remain elevated. 

In a recent note, we cited Mortgage Bankers Association data showing that $929 billion—20% of the $4.7 trillion total—in commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors are due later this year. The figure is up 28% from 2023 and inflated by amendments and extensions from prior years. Nevertheless, borrowers must now bite the bullet and pay up or default.

Remember that surging CRE defaults risk triggering hundreds of small regional bank failures. We warned about this in a March note titled “$1 Trillion In 2024 CRE Maturities Could Lead To Hundreds Of Bank Failures.”

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

The Federal Deposit Insurance (FDIC) failed to provide its employees a safe workplace free from “sexual harassment, discrimination, and other interpersonal misconduct,” a new report released on Tuesday concluded.

Martin Gruenberg, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), testifies before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington on Nov. 15, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

The more than 200-page report, produced by law firm Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, was ordered by the bank regulator. The independent review was overseen by the Special Committee of the FDIC Board of Directors after The Wall Street Journal published scathing reports identifying an objectionable work climate and misogynistic culture described as a “sexualized boys’ club environment.”

More than 500 individuals recounted their experiences of discrimination, sexual harassment, and “other interpersonal misconduct” they endured at the FDIC.

Heads of field and regional offices managed their offices like “fiefdoms” while commissioned bank examiners “controlled the destinies of junior examiners,” the report explained.

“Those who reported expressed fear, sadness, and anger at what they had to endure,” the report stated.

“Many had never reported their experiences to anyone before, while others who had reported internally were left disappointed by the FDIC’s response.”

In one example, a female examiner received a photo of a senior FDIC examiner’s private parts and was recommended by others to “stay away from him because he had a ’reputation.’”

One employee feared for her safety after a co-worker stalked her and repeatedly shared “unwelcome sexualized text messages that feature partially naked women engaging in sexual acts.”

Women in a field office explained that their supervisor regularly talked about their breasts, legs, and sex life.

Others noted that colleagues and supervisors would mock personnel with disabilities, calling one “Pirate McNasty,” and demoralize workers from underrepresented groups by telling them they were “token” employees hired to fill quotas.

“These incidents, and many others like them, did not occur in a vacuum,” the report stated. “They arose within a workplace culture that is ’misogynistic,‘ ’patriarchal,‘ ’insular,‘ and ’outdated‘—a ’good ol’ boys’ club where favoritism is common, wagons are circled around managers, and senior executives with well-known reputations for pursuing romantic relations with subordinates enjoy long careers without any apparent consequence.”

The investigation also uncovered prevalent retaliation against workers who complained about the misconduct, which helped foster a toxic work environment.

“Employees are not encouraged to provide feedback and suggestions up the line, in particular if it is bad news,” one witness said.

“In fact, employees, such as myself, have been retaliated against for providing suggestions for improvement after having been requested for such feedback.”

Others, according to the report, were unsure or did not know how to report complaints.

‘Very Sorry’

Mr. Gruenberg told agency staff that the report presented “a sobering look inside our workplace” and expressed that he was “very sorry” for overseeing a hostile environment.

“I want to also thank everyone who shared their experiences throughout this process. I know that doing so was difficult,” the FDIC chief said. “To anyone who experienced sexual harassment or other misconduct at the FDIC, I again want to express how very sorry I am. I also want to apologize for any shortcomings on my part.”

“As Chairman, I am ultimately responsible for everything that happens at our agency, including our workplace culture,” he added.

Implementing “meaningful and sustained change” will not be easy, Mr. Gruenberg said to employees.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) seal is shown outside its headquarters in Washington on March 14, 2023. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo)

The recommendations outlined in the report will be incorporated into the FDIC’s ongoing 13-page action plan. Additionally, the FDIC is still actively finding a transformation monitor and independent third-party expert to help adopt the Special Review Committee’s recommendations.

Special committee co-chair Jonathan McKernan called the report “an important first step” toward ushering in change at the FDIC.

“Today’s report establishes the urgent imperative of a cultural transformation at the FDIC led by those with the leadership capacity to effectuate that change,” Mr. McKernan said in a statement. “Fostering an environment that promotes a safe, respectful, and inclusive workplace is fundamental to achieving the agency’s mission.”

An apology is not enough for Patrick McHenry, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, who demanded Mr. Gruenberg’s resignation.

“It’s time for Chair Gruenberg to step aside. The independent report released today details his inexcusable behavior and makes clear new leadership is needed at the FDIC,” Mr. McHenry said in a statement.

He added that committee Republicans will ensure the FDIC head and other senior leaders are “held accountable” for their actions.

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) speaks to the press after meeting President Joe Biden to discuss the debt limit at the White House in Washington on May 22, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton was not asked, nor did it determine, if Mr. Gruenberg and other individuals at the federal agency should be removed or disciplined.

‘Toxic Atmosphere’ at FDIC

Late last year, The Wall Street Journal published two in-depth reports. The first was“Strip Clubs, Lewd Photos and a Boozy Hotel: The Toxic Atmosphere at Bank Regulator FDIC,” and the second was “FDIC Chair, Known for Temper, Ignored Bad Behavior in Workplace.”

The article listed claims by employees, past and present, that bullying, discrimination, and sexual misconduct were pervasive at the FDIC.

Many cases of inappropriate conduct listed in the article were met with little or no disciplinary action.

Following the newspaper’s published investigation, Mr. Gruenberg said he had been unaware of the allegations and rejected calls from Republicans to step down.

Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that the FDIC chief maintained “a reputation for bullying and for having an explosive temper.” At least one probe was initiated against Mr. Gruenberg after berating a female employee while serving as the vice chairman.

Mr. Gruenberg told lawmakers at a Senate Banking Committee hearing that he was “personally disturbed and deeply troubled” by the article’s findings, adding that the agency launched a “comprehensive review” of the situation.

Following the report, several Republican senators demanded his resignation over workplace misconduct allegations.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) urged Mr. Gruenberg to step down so that “a new chair can restore the professional culture at the FDIC that the American people expect from its institutions.”

In a Dec. 7 letter, Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), and Steve Daines (R-Mont.) called the accusations “deeply disturbing and unacceptable at any workplace.”

“According to these reports, both you and your top deputies ‘have been involved in decisions over high-level examples of alleged sexism, harassment, and racial discrimination in which the agency didn’t take a hard line with individuals accused of misconduct,’ allowing the culture of harassment and discrimination to persist and flourish,” the letter added.

The bombshell Wall Street Journal reports came three years after the FDIC’s inspector general discovered multiple sexual harassment complaints and issued more than a dozen recommendations to change the workplace culture.

Mr. Gruenberg joined the FDIC Board of Directors in August 2005. In 2011, then-President Barack Obama nominated him to a full five-year term as chairman. In 2022, President Joe Biden nominated Mr. Gruenberg to another term.

Should Mr. Gruenberg step down or be removed from his position, FDIC Vice Chair Travis Hill would take over, and the board would be split between Republicans and Democrats.

It may seem crazy, but here’s some advice for heavily indebted Gen-Zers:

Put down the smartphone.
Stop spending on DoorDash and Uber Eats.
Perhaps cancel a few streaming services.

Also, the spending party is over despite calls from the White House to cancel student debt. 

The rising debt load Gen-Zers are carrying is alarming. The average credit-card balance for 22- to 24-year-olds was $2,834 in 1Q23, compared with an average inflation-adjusted balance of $2,248 in the same period in 2013, according to Wall Street Journal, citing new data from credit-reporting agency TransUnion. 

The youngest generation is coming to age during a time when Bidenomics has been a complete failure, and these kids are spending themselves in financial ruin. 

“This is a generation that is feeling financial stress in a more acute way than millennials did a decade ago,” said Charlie Wise, head of global research at TransUnion.

On Tuesday, Billionaire investor and Duquesne Family Office Chairman & CEO Stan Druckenmiller slammed Bidenomics and warned the Federal Reserve and federal government “misdiagnosed Covid and thought it was — we were going into a depression.”

Druckenmiller has been troubled by the federal government’s massive fiscal spending, which we outlined last year as a “stealth stimulus” propelling Bidenomics. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has enabled the Bidenomics disaster by spending $1 trillion every 100 days. With stagflationary threats emerging, the US economic situation is quickly deteriorating. 

Besides the vast majority of the working poor slammed by Bidenomics, as noted by McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Tyson Foods executives in earnings calls in recent weeks, Gen-Zers have been very vocal about a shit economy they were given after taking out $100,000 in college loans. Many complained on X: 

Woman defends Gen-Z not wanting to work a 9-5 for the rest of their lives

“I don’t want to work my tail end off, wasting all of my life working, just to barely be able to pay my bills” pic.twitter.com/BxaTXjaxcd

— Unlimited L’s (@unlimited_ls) January 8, 2024

A lot of people seem to think this mindset is unique to Gen Z. It’s not.

Every generation goes through this. Watch Reality Bites, where a group of 20-somethings in the early 90s deal with the exact same struggles and emotions as described in this video.

pic.twitter.com/7h1gAN3c7R

— Matthew Kobach 🍕 (@mkobach) October 20, 2023

Democrats and the Biden team have a serious problem as the latest polling data from Gallup shows the president’s polling data is quickly deteriorating amongst the 18-29-year-old vote. 

Source: Bloomberg

WSJ provided readers with several sad stories about struggling Gen-Zers fresh out of college. 

The first: 

Lindsay Quackenbush was recently working for a publishing company that paid her $60,000 a year. The money was just enough for the 26-year-old to cover her portion of the rent for the New York City basement apartment where she and her boyfriend live. Then she was laid off.

She is carrying a balance of about $1,700 across three credit cards and is for the first time not able to pay off her credit cards in full. She is making the minimum payment for now while she hunts for a new job.

As for thinking about milestones such as marriage and children, she and her friends have discussed putting anything like that off until they are in a more financially stable position. “Who knows when that will be?” she said.

The second: 

When Adriana Cubillo, 26, moved into her one-bedroom apartment in Salt Lake City a little over a year ago, the rent was $1,000. Since then, it has gone up by $200. That puts a bigger dent in the nearly $30,000 annual salary she makes as a customer-service representative for an insurance company.

She pays for groceries, gas and dog food with her three credit cards and currently holds a balance of $1,500. She pays about $50 a month toward the cards to satisfy the minimum payments.

“When I was younger, I was so ready to be an adult and grow up and live on my own but the economy has made it difficult,” Cubillo said.

What’s problematic for the youth is real wages have not kept up with inflation. In 2020, the median annual wage for college grads was around $59,000, now only up $2,000 to $60,000. Hence, why the kids are racking up credit card debt to survive. 

Also, the mania in opening credit cards has mostly faded among youngsters in this high-rate environment. 

Source: Wall Street Journal 

Credit Karma data shows that credit scores have taken a hit. The drop is more severe for millennials with credit scores between 660 and 719, whose scores fell by 26 points. As for Gen-Zers, their credit scores fell 14 points to 720. 

With stagflationary risks emerging in recent weeks, US macro data shows a slowing economy with elevated inflation. New consumer credit data from the Federal Reserve shows households finally hit a brick wall. 

Even Walmart understands these kids are very screwed. The mega-retailer created a private label brand for them with many items under $5. 

Maybe – just maybe – the kids are coming out of college indoctrination camps and spending like there’s no tomorrow because Marxist teachings have led them to believe Joe Biden and the Democrats will bail them out.

Maybe they’re the most gullible generation ever.

By Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

A weaker yen will boost inflation in Japan, but it may do so to an undesirable extent, especially as there are growing signs price growth is becoming embedded.

Be careful what you wish for. For years, Japan has yearned for sustainable inflation around 2%. Add a pandemic, a rise in energy prices and one of the most extensive and long-lasting loose monetary policies seen in the history of global central banking, and it may have got there.

However, stopping inflation at the right level is a bit like turning a cargo ship: you have to make the decision to turn long before you need to. Headline inflation in Japan is coming off recent highs, helped by subdued oil prices. But so-called core-core CPI (ex-fresh food and energy) is proving worryingly stubborn, still hovering within ~0.5% points of its all-time highs.

There are further signs of inflation becoming embedded. The percentage of inputs to the CPI basket (with over 650 of them, there is a Byzantine level of detail) rose to by far its highest level outside a consumption tax hike and remains elevated.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has been on the wires today, highlighting that FX is a vital factor effecting inflation. He is not wrong. The recent yen weakness will soon pressure CPI to move higher again.

That’s at a time that longer-term inflation expectations are rising, based on the Tankan survey of businesses on output prices. Long-term household expectations of inflation are also sticky and near series highs.

Japan has not had to deal with persistently high inflation expectations almost within living memory. Ueda also highlighted the negative effects on the economy from an abrupt, one-sided weak yen. More pernicious is likely to be the further rousing of inflation that’s already looking like it’s going to be the gift to the BOJ that gives too much.

Video surfaced this week from Walt Disney World in Florida where, at the Wilderness Lodge resort, the company appears to have cast a biological male to play the role of Snow White’s wicked queen. 

“….the Evil Queen without a doubt had a man’s voice,” said the father of a family who dined at Wilderness Lodge, Brietbart and That Park Place reported. 

The father reportedly said: “I told my waiter that I had a problem with something. He then asked what was the issue and I simply stated I have a problem with Evil Queen being a man dressed in drag. The waiter immediately said he was going to get a manager and he looked panicked…”

He continued, telling That Park Place: “At first I said I wanted to formally complain about the Evil Queen being a man and that I felt very disrespected by Disney because this is not the sort of thing my family values and they didn’t give us any type of notice that this sort of thing was even a possibility.”

“After that my wife then signaled for me to stand up and take a step from the table so that our kids didn’t have to overhear the conversation. So I stood up and continued my chat with the manager which lasted about one to two mins maybe (felt like an hour). I stated we are a conservative Christian family, I’m spending $8,000 on this current trip in addition to the tens of thousands I’ve spent together in the past at Walt Disney World and Disney Cruises, and that this is not right.”

A family has reached out to That Park Place claiming they spent over $300 on a character meet and greet dinner at Walt Disney World… only to discover the Evil Queen character was almost certainly a biological male. This represents the first time we’ve heard of Disney using a… pic.twitter.com/jHRt64wl4O

— wdwpro (@wdwpro1) April 23, 2024

Then, the father claims the manager told him: “I can assure you that she is a woman.”

“She went even further,” the father detailed to That Park Place, “trying to shame me, informing me that ‘she’ was so excited to get the part as the Evil Queen. For a brief moment I thought ‘oh… maybe I’m wrong’ but then I realized that I was just being gaslighted.”

“I politely told the manager that ‘I know what you are doing and that I do not appreciate the fact that you are trying to be funny and disingenuous.’ So since the manager doubled down I also doubled down and asked ‘is the Evil Queen a biological male?’ The manager’s reply was, ‘I’m sorry sir, I cannot answer that.'”

Brietbart notes that this isn’t the first time Disney has included drag performers at its theme parks. Disneyland in Anaheim previously featured a male employee in drag greeting children at the Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutique.

The Walt Disney Company has also been promoting gender non-conformity in its children’s entertainment, creating multiple transgender characters and hosting a pride-themed musical special starring drag queen Nina West.

In recent years, Disney has also made its parks more gender-neutral by replacing “ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls” with “dreamers of all ages” and offering gender-neutral restrooms.

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

If people have learned anything from the past few years of Ivy League elites and TV talking heads feeding them economic predictions, I hope they finally understand that the “experts” are usually wrong and that alternative analysts have a far better track record. Whenever establishment economists make a a call the opposite generally turns out to be true.

By extension, alternative economic predictions are usually well ahead of the curve – What we talk about might be labeled “doom mongering” or “conspiracy theory” today. In three years or less it will be treated as common knowledge and the mainstream “experts” will claim that they “saw it coming all along” while taking credit for financial calls they never made.

This has been a long running pattern and it’s something those of us in the alternative media have come to expect.

For my part, I warned for years about the threat of the impending stagflationary crisis which ultimately struck hard in the “post-pandemic” US. The establishment gatekeepers denied such a thing was possible. When it happened, they claimed it was “transitory.” Now, they argue that a soft landing is imminent and there’s nothing to fear from trillions in helicopter money being pumped into the system. They claim nothing of significance will change.

I also predicted that the Fed would create a Catch-22 scenario in which interest rates are raised into economic weakness while inflationary pressures expand. I suggested that the central bank would keep rates higher for far longer than mainstream analysts claimed. This is exactly what has happened.  My position is simple – The Federal Reserve is a suicide bomber.

Who are you going to believe? Independent economists who have proven correct time and time again? Or, the Ivory Tower guys who have been consistently wrong? I’ll say this: If success in economics was actually based on merit and correct analysis, people like Paul Krugman or Janet Yellen would have been out of work a long time ago.

As for the ongoing narrative of a soft landing, the question I have to ask is HOW exactly they are going to make that happen? First, let’s clarify why central bankers are the problem (along with the governments they covertly influence)…

Central Banks Are At The Core Of Economic Troubles

There are only two logical reasons for central bank induced inflation: To hide the effects of a massive deflationary slowdown caused by too much debt, or, to deliberately trigger a currency collapse. Both motives could apply at the same time.

Central bankers don’t just facilitate this inflation at the behest of governments, they tell governments what to expect and what to promote to the public. Anyone that claims otherwise has an agenda. Central banks write their own policy and control their own mechanics. Governments have no say whatsoever in their operations, as Alan Greenspan once openly admitted.

The reality is, governments go begging hat in hand to central bankers and the banks decide whether or not to give them that sweet stimulus nectar. Politicians engage in collusion with central banks on a regular basis and they defer to bankers on an array of economic decisions. Economic advisers to the US president almost always include high level central bankers who then cycle right back into the Federal Reserve.

Central banks and their private international counterparts are in control, political leaders are simply pawns. Whenever there’s a crash the public focuses on government while the central banks fade into the background and avoid all scrutiny.

Inflation Addiction And The Ultimate Catch-22

Inflation for banks is a tool for fiscal change, but also social change. It’s not a coincidence that financial crisis events always lead to more centralization of global power into fewer and fewer hands; this is by design. Inflation allows the establishment to delay or initiate a crisis with greater precision.

An even more powerful tool is the WITHHOLDING of stimulus and cheap money once an economy is addicted to the flow of fiat.

I have been arguing for many years that central banks were constructing a situation in which the system is utterly dependent on fiat stimulus in order to maintain the illusion of growth. If the bankers return to lower rates and QE, inflation will continue to explode. If they stay with higher rates and a trickle of stimulus then a global crash is inevitable.

It’s one or the other, there is no soft landing when trillions in money creation are at play in such a short period of time. Central banks must return to near zero rates and QE if they hope to prevent a debt implosion. This might seem like a soft landing scenario at first, but when CPI ramps up (as it is starting to now at the mere mention of rate cuts) consumers will be hit even harder.

I’ll ask this question once again because I don’t think some people are getting it: What if their goal is to create a crash?

The Great Global Slowdown Has Already Started

In the past six months both the World Trade Organization and the World Banks released statements warning of an impending global slowdown. After an initial surge in exports and imports caused by massive pandemic stimulus measures, the effects of the helicopter money are now fading. By the end of 2024, global trade will register the slowest growth since the 1990s.

The UN also suggested growth deceleration was coming in the next year due to falling investments and subdued global trade. Keep in mind that the alternative media has been warning about this outcome for the past couple years at least as covid funding dried up. Globalist institutions are simply informing the public at the last minute; too little, too late.

The World Bank asserts that global trade is flatlining and international trade data supports this theory. China’s export market plunged by 7.5% in March, far more than expected and well below the 2.3% decline predicted by a major poll of mainstream economists by Reuters.

By the end of 2023 European exports declined by 8.8% compared to a year earlier and the union barely avoided a recession (according to official numbers). All hopes in Europe rest on the possibility of a steeper drop in inflation and central bank interest rate cuts. As I have been saying since 2021, don’t get too excited about banks lowering rates. It’s not going to happen at the pace that investors want, it’s not going to bring back QE anytime soon and when they do cut rates CPI will immediately spike once again causing panic among consumers.

I suspect that, after an initial rate cut event and an inflation resurgence, central banks will return to tightening with even higher rates in 2025.

In the US, a net importer of goods rather than a primary exporter, consumer volume has been in steep decline. Due to inflation, Americans are buying less goods while paying more money. And this is how inflation skews economic data. Higher prices on goods make retail sales look great, but in reality people are simply paying a higher price for the same amount of products (or less products).

Consumer credit data shows a steep decline in debt spending; credit card delinquency is at all time highs, APR is at all time highs and debt growth has collapsed in the past couple of months. Considering that the American consumer is a primary driver of global exports, it makes sense that international trade is now plummeting. Consumers are broke. The covid stimulus party is officially over and inflation is dragging the market down.

The IMF has recently noted the signs of global slowdown but, as usual, they argue that a “soft landing” is imminent. In other words, they claim there will be no serious repercussions for the economy. They do mention one interesting caveat in their analysis – The danger of global conflicts “derailing” the supposed recovery.

War leads to rising protectionism, the IMF says, and protectionism is a big no-no. In a world economy based on forced interdependency this is partially true, but the bigger picture is being ignored. The world economy should be built on redundancy, not interdependency. Interdependency creates weakness and the potential for dangerous domino effects. This is a fact that globalists would never willingly admit to.

For now, it appears that the global slowdown will become undeniable in the next six months, either right before the US elections in November, or right after. Central banks have chosen to create this Catch-22 and they are, for whatever reason, stalling the big drop. My theory? They have a scapegoat (or scapegoats) in mind and they’re waiting for the right time to unleash the next chaotic event. Covid is gone, so they’re going to need a war, multiple wars, or political conflict in the west and in many other parts of the world as a distraction.

*  *  *

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US defense secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed while testifying before a congressional subcommittee on Wednesday that the Biden administration has paused an arms shipment to Israel, which reportedly includes large bombs and other ammunition being put on hold for transfer.

“We’ve been very clear … from the very beginning that Israel shouldn’t launch a major attack into Rafah without accounting for and protecting the civilians that are in that battlespace,” Austin told US lawmakers. “We’ve not made a final determination on how to proceed with that shipment [of weapons],” the Pentagon chief said.

Via Reuters

He added the caveat that the paused transfer in question remains separate from the supplemental aid package for Israel that was passed last month.

Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations Gilad Erdan has called the move “very disappointing”. President Biden “can’t say he is our partner in the goal to destroy Hamas, while on the other hand delay the means meant to destroy Hamas,” Erdan said the same day as Austin’s testimony.

Austin did still emphasize, “My final comment is that we are absolutely committed to continuing to support Israel in its right to defend itself.”

Separately on Wednesday the State Department hinted that following the initial paused shipment, the US could extend the temporary ban to include more arms and ammo shipments.

Spokesman Matthew Miller says cited concerns over how Israel conducts itself in the Rafah operation. The White House has said it does not back an Israel ground offensive into the refugee-packed southern city.

“When you see the results of the campaign to date, you see too many Palestinians die. We have been clear for some time the results are unacceptable,” Miller told a press briefing. “We’ve paused one shipment.… We are reviewing other potential weapons systems. I’m not going to get into the underlying details here.”

Watching CQ Brown trying desperately not to get tricked into saying into a mic that he is pro the bombing of Hiroshima was not something I expected to see this morning https://t.co/Yj3ehHukyp

— Aaron Mehta (@AaronMehta) May 8, 2024

Meanwhile, the outspoken Iran hawk Sen. Lindsey Graham had this bizarre and highly theoretical exchange with Defense Secretary Austin as well as Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Charles Q. Brown Jr.:

GRAHAM: Would you have supported dropping the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki? General Brown, to end World War II?

BROWN JR: Well Senator, I think it is based on the situation —

GRAHAM: Well, we know I mean, it happened, we know. I’m not asking, they did it. Do you think that was disproportionate?

BROWN JR: It was —

GRAHAM: Do you, in hindsight, do you think that was the right decision for America to drop two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities in question?

BROWN JR: Well, I’ll tell you, it stopped the world war.

GRAHAM: Okay. Well, so. Do you agree, General Austin? If you’d been around, would you say drop them?

AUSTIN: I agree with the chairman here.

GRAHAM: I mean, if you were if we go back in time says, hey, we got two atomic bombs, should we drop them? What would you say?

AUSTIN: Well, you know, I think the leadership was interested in curtailing —

GRAHAM: What’s Israel interested in? Do you believe Iran really wants to kill all the Jews if they could? The Iranian regime. Do you believe Hamas is serious when they say we’ll keep doing it over and over again? Do you agree that they will if they can?

AUSTIN: I do.

GRAHAM: Okay. Alright. Do you believe that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization also bent on the destruction of the Jewish state?

AUSTIN: Hezbollah is a terrorist organization.

GRAHAM: Okay, so Israel’s been hit in the last few weeks by Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas dedicated to their destruction. And you’re telling me you’re going to tell them how to fight the war? And what they can and can’t use when everybody around them wants to kill all the Jews. And you’re telling me that if we withhold weapons in this fight — the existential fight for the life of the Jewish state — it won’t send the wrong signal? Do you still think it was a good idea, General Austin, to get out of Afghanistan?

AUSTIN: I support the president’s decision.

GRAHAM: Yeah, I think you do. I think it was a disastrous decision. If we stop weapons necessary to destroy the enemies of the State of Israel at a time of great peril, we will pay a price. This is obscene. It is absurd. Give Israel what they need to fight the war. They can’t afford to lose. This is Hiroshima and Nagasaki on steroids.

Is the Senator from South Carolina actually suggesting Israel might need to nuke the Gaza Strip? 

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

No wonder so many people devote themselves to curating an artificial digital representation of themselves that they reckon is worthy of recognition and status.

What does it take to “make it” in today’s economy? As described in Withdrawing from the Rat Race Is Going Global, the world has changed in fundamental ways that have made it much more difficult to “make it” into the ranks of the middle class, and even harder to claw one’s way into the higher reaches of the economic order, i.e. the top 10%.

In summary, developed economies have been stripped of secure, well-paid manual-labor work, the purchasing power of wages has declined, prices of assets such as homes have skyrocketed out of reach and the mass overproduction of elites (those with college diplomas and advanced degrees) has created a winner-take-all competitive pressure cooker with few winners and an abundance of also-rans.

In other words, the work-a-day world has become far more complex and far more demanding than it was two generations ago. It’s not just making enough to pay the bills that’s more demanding; the work is more demanding, as is everyday life, which now demands far more shadow work–work we do to manage life’s complexities that we’re not paid for. Having children is far more expensive and demanding, too, as the competition for upper-middle class slots now starts in Kindergarten.

Many individuals do not have the armor and weaponry needed to enter the arena and survive the competition. It’s easy to dismiss them as “lazy,” but that’s not the issue. It’s also easy to dismiss them as snowflakes, young people who have been shielded from life’s rougher edges by overprotective parents, leaving them ill-equipped for the slings and arrows of modern life.

But this isn’t the issue, either. The real issue is the social and economic demands now exceed the carrying capacity of many people. Where it was possible to find a secure low-level job that could support a household and find a place in society’s pecking order two generations ago with limited social / work skills, now it’s essentially impossible: low-level work is insecure and too poorly paid to support a household, and it is viewed as demeaning and unworthy of respect.

How do humans respond when they’re viewed as worthless and they feel hopeless? In the Hollywood script, they pick themselves up, dust themselves off, gather a discarded shield and sword off the blood-soaked sand of the arena and go out and kick some derriere. (“Take that, nepo scum!”)

Many people manage to do this and we applaud their grit and determination. But not every individual wins in this battle. Many pick up the shield and the sword and are immediately trampled. They make a realistic assessment that they can’t possibly reach the lofty goals demanded of them, and so they are effectively excluded from what is now considered “normal life.”

This comment on a Reddit thread speaks to the increasing demands of “normal life”:

I obviously can’t speak for everyone, but I can give some insight based on my own social withdrawal: modern life is overwhelming. It feels like there’s a lot that’s expected of you. In many ways modern life is a giant competition for wealth and status, but instead of competing just within your community, you have to compete with millions of people all around the world. It feels daunting, if not impossible. Why compete in a contest you know you can’t win? It’s pointless, it’s a waste of time and energy. I feel very much like, “well, what’s the point?”

So they drop out of the competition. Maybe they take a part-time gig job, maybe they move back home to take care of a parent or grandparent, or they become a recluse.

Hikikomori–hiki, to withdraw–komori, inside–is an extreme form of voluntary social isolation from society. The term originated in Japan but the abandonment of conforming to the demands of society is not limited to Japan. Withdrawing from the demands of what passes for “normal life” is not limited to extremes of seclusion; it is a spectrum of withdrawal that includes giving up on striving for upper-middle class membership (which goes by terms such as lying flat and let it rot) to minimizing engagement with the world in a variety of ways.

The medical professions have naturally sought to frame this voluntary seclusion as a psychiatric disorder, but it is not a disease or disorder, it is a psychological response to an impossible set of familial and social-economic demands in a social order that no longer offers a positive role, socially or economically, for the marginalized and those lacking what it takes to meet the increasing demands of an economy of surplus elites striving for the diminishing pool of jobs that provide both 1) a secure middle-class income and 2) a way of life that doesn’t strip the worker of everything but work.

This is not so much a mystifying disorder as an understanding that seclusion is viewed as the only available response left to social-economic exclusion.

In a hyper-globalized, hyper-financialized developed economy, there are no social or economic roles left for those who cannot enter the coliseum of “highly productive workers” and emerge victorious. Part-time precarious work is all that’s available to them, and it’s poorly paid and earns zero status or respect, so the impoverishment of those for whom this is best they can manage is both physical and psychological.

Trying to live up to the standards of “normal life” extracts more than they have to give in return for an awareness of inadequacy and demands more than they can give in return for the impossibility of meeting expectations in a social order in which ridicule, exclusion and harassment are normalized.

Unable to qualify for social approval and validation–winners must have high social skills and oversized ambitions, be willing to work insanely long hours and pass grueling all-or-nothing exams, then work insanely long hours to prove one’s social merit, marry and have children whose success in a competitive pressure cooker is a heavy responsibility–those who lack these traits either endure a quite realistic sense of the hopelessness of “succeeding” in a competition they are ill-equipped to survive, much less win, or withdraw from the hell of other people (recalling Sartre’s famous line in No Exit: Hell is other people.).

Those who are excluded have said the pain of loneliness is easier to bear than the pain of dealing with other people.

Where working class jobs in factories once offered security, community and a positive identity of being a productive, valued worker, now the physical-labor jobs are viewed as demeaning and those doing the work find their work isn’t validated or respected.

In previous generations, education, vehicles, healthcare and housing were all affordable to anyone with steady work who exhibited basic frugality in service of saving. A great many jobs offered security, community, a positive identity and a ladder of social mobility to lower-middle class stability that then served as a platform for one’s children to climb even higher.

Now working class jobs are characterized by insecurity and precariousness, a threadbare social circle of other workers and neighbors passing through and very little validation of being a contributing member of society.

No wonder so many people devote themselves to curating an artificial digital representation of themselves that they reckon is worthy of recognition and status, and perhaps even admiration and envy. The real world no longer offers much of an avenue for their real selves to receive what every human wants: to be recognized as an individual who contributes to the greater whole to the best of their ability and is thus worthy of self-respect and the respect of others.

I will have more to say about this striving for an artificial substitute for authentic recognition and identity in my next post.

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It was all looking good for a second or two as ARM Holdings released earnings with top- and bottom-lines beating expectations…

*ARM HOLDINGS PLC 4Q TOTAL REV. $928M, EST. $880.4M

*ARM HOLDINGS PLC 4Q ADJ EPS 36C, EST. 30C

So good, so far, then the chip designer said that sales will be $875 million to $925 million in the June quarter (which compares favorably with an average analyst estimate of $868 million).

But then the hammer fell…

However, the company forecasts that for fiscal 2025, which ends next March, revenue will be $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion – while analysts’ estimates were for a total of $4.01 billion.

Three months ago, an upbeat forecast sent its shares soaring and helped turn the company into an AI darling on Wall Street, but ARM shares are trading down 10% after-hours on tonight’s report…

In an interview, CEO Rene Haas said Arm remains “very confident in the long-term growth.”

“A lot of the strategies we put in place a couple of years ago are all coming together,” he said.

Maybe so, but just not fast enough for investors.